Every Sunday, we’ll share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Cam Robinson, and Dobber

1. One thing I have been thinking about is the schedule. Whether we end up with 48 games, or 54 games, or 60 games, we’re not going to be playing 82. With the league needing revenue, my assumption is they squeeze in as many games as quickly as possible.

Anyway, all that leads to this: I am not sure how much goaltender rest we’re going to see. It has been infrequent over recent seasons to see a goalie play both ends of a back-to-back situation but we’re going to be in a shortened scenario. For example, last year, the Jets had eight back-to-backs and Connor Hellebuyck played both ends of them just once. When we get to the shortened season, it won’t just be the back-to-backs that coaches will need to concern themselves with, it’s also the three-in-fours and the four-in-sixes that will matter. There are going to be more of those as well. At a certain point, I don’t wonder if coaches are going to just play their starters. (dec8)

2. When looking back to the 2013 shortened season, the Blackhawks had 10 back-to-back situations, the Canadiens had eight, the Panthers had six, and the Ducks had nine (I only looked up a handful of teams, but I remember this being a big sticking point when making the schedules). If we get around a 50-game season, that could be as much as 20 percent of the season played on B2Bs. Things rarely work out as neatly as “we’ll give the B2Bs to the backup and every other game to the starter.” There will be injuries, COVID cases, family emergencies, and whatever else that normally pops up.

All this is to say I think we see goalies playing both ends of a B2B a lot more often than we think we might, or should. This is especially true for potential bubble playoff teams with a good starter like Winnipeg, Anaheim, or Calgary. It may not be true for teams like Boston or Vegas, who have two starters but are also a lock playoff team barring some sort of disaster. (dec8)

3. I was looking at some of our advanced stats for goalies on Frozen Tools. One in particular that I think is worth looking at is GSAA (goals saved above average), which I’ve referenced in past Ramblings when discussing goalies. This stat can be found by clicking on the Quality Starts button when searching for goalies.

In case you’re wondering what GSAA is, it calculates goal differential between goalie and league average. A higher positive number is better. It may be a function of the team to some degree, although a goalie with a strong individual performance (Connor Hellebuyck) can also stand out here. Last season’s numbers are probably a reflection of who you wanted/did not want on your fantasy team.

Anton Khudobin might have been the surprise story of the 2020 playoffs. Yet there were already indicators that Dallas goaltending wouldn’t fall off if he had to take over. In addition to his stellar 2.22 GAA and .930 SV%, Khudobin led all goalies who played at least 15 games with a 0.63 GSAA/60. His overall GSAA total is lower than that of Hellebuyck and Tuukka Rask because he played fewer games.

Khudobin no doubt benefits from a strong defensive system in Dallas, as Ben Bishop was also within the top 10 in GSAA in 2019-20. Now that Bishop is expected to be out of the Stars’ lineup until late March because of knee surgery, Khudobin can safely be drafted in fantasy leagues as a starter. There’s that old saying that a starter shouldn’t lose his job because of injury, but I think Khudobin has at least forced a timeshare once both are fully healthy. Khudobin’s underlying numbers show that he is deserving of the opportunity, and he should continue to thrive. (dec12)

4. The problem with the Kings, as it has been for many years, is not the defense; they finished last year allowing fewer goals/60 at 5-on-5 than teams like Pittsburgh, Vegas, Minnesota, and Carolina. They were basically the middle of the league in goals against/60 at all strengths. If that team defense can maintain for another season, it’s good enough to get them heading to the playoffs.

In order to actually get to the postseason, though, they need to score. Despite the average-or-better defense, the team was 30th in goals/60 at all strengths and 29th at 5-on-5. Their goaltending could post a .925 next year and that level of scoring might not be enough. They need to do much better.

There are problems with that. They lost Tyler Toffoli via trade, and he averaged over 20 goals a season for six years. That is a lot of goals to lose for a team that doesn’t score many. To take the next step, they not only need to replace those goals, but probably add about 30 more (over 82 games) on top of it. In a 60-game season, they probably need to find 40 goals internally to have a shot at the postseason.

This is why even though the Kings may have the best prospect pool in the league, they may not be very good in 2020-21. They can still put together a decent top line but there’s no depth beyond that other than the prospects, so if all of Quinton Byfield/Arthur Kaliyev/Alex Turcotte/RasmusKupari aren’t on the roster, I don’t have a lot of faith for a playoff push.

Without the kids, the Kings need 20-goal seasons from the likes of Jeff Carter and Alex Iafallo to really be a threat. They also need Gabe Vilardi to turn the corner and Adrian Kempe to help. Of the three California teams, unless the Kings have their youngsters in the lineup, they seem to be the least likely to rebound from 2019-20. (dec11)

5. Up until 2019-20, Vincent Trocheck had paced for at least 230 shots/82 games for three straight seasons. He has three seasons of at least 23 goals and one 30-goal season. The guy can score.

Trocheck faces a two-pronged issue. When he was having great seasons in Florida, he was the lock number-2 center and they played their top-6 a lot. Carolina, meanwhile, has both Sebastian Aho and Jordan Staal down the middle. At best, Trocheck is splitting middle-6 duties. That means we are very unlikely to see him in the 19- to 20-minute range again. Less ice time hurts.

If he’s splitting middle-six duties, he needs PP time to flourish. There are a lot of good forwards on the roster so he’s far from a lock for top PP duties. With all that said, they need to replace Justin Williams on the top PP unit, and Trocheck is a right shot like Williams. While Williams played the slot and Trocheck has typically played the half-wall, it’s not a big deal moving him 12 feet to the left. Our guide has him on PP1 and I concur.

So, if we have Trocheck playing with a good playmaker at even strength, albeit in middle-six minutes, with top PP time, what can we expect? I suspect we’ll see Trocheck’s best per-game output since 2017-18. (dec10)

6. The Flames finished fifth in carry-in% but finished 15th in goals/60 at 5v4. I have spent some time this offseason talking about rebounding Flames, and I think the power play is one area that is going to be a strength. (They need to draw more penalties, though. They finished bottom-10 in the league last year in power-play opportunities.)  I think there is going to be a good buying opportunity on guys like Johnny Gaudreau and Elias Lindholm. (dec10)

7. When D.J. Smith was hired in Ottawa, the prevailing thought was that he was a great defensive mind. It seems he has certainly lived up to that billing. The team still needs more improvements offensively, and maybe that’ll come this year with their prospects. Regardless, I am not writing off Matt Murray this season in goal. He had a bad 2019-20, and the Sens had a bad 2019-20, and that’s probably going to make him real cheap at the draft table. I like drafting cheap goalies, so he’s a guy that will be circled on my draft list as a 3/4 guy. (dec10)

8. When thinking about how juicy the Minnesota Wild's forward corps may be in the very near future, don't forget about Matt Boldy. Yes, we may very well see Marco Rossi centering Kevin Fiala and Kirill Kaprizov this year. Something that definitely excites me, but the Wild also have a serious winger coming up a year behind in Boldy.

The 19-year-old departed for the USA's WJC camp leading the NCAA in points-per-game with eight through four games. He's one of these players who can be a chameleon for your lineup. Need a passer on the line with finishers? He can do that. Need a finisher with a pass-first pivot? He can bury with the best of them.

It's easy to forget about him a bit as he had an icy icy start to his collegiate career in 2019-20 recording just two points in his first 14 games. But since then, he has 32 points in 24 games. That is quite good. He'll be leaving school at the end of this season and I imagine he'll be able to step right into the NHL. Get him on your radar if you haven't already. (dec9)

9. I really like the chances of Nikita Gusev going off next season. It's a lot to cross the Atlantic and learn to play in the NHL after being accustomed to the way the game is played in Russia. The pace. The intensity. The media scrutiny. It's no easy feat even for a weathered 27-year-old rookie like Gusev.

However, but the end of the season, it appeared he was getting it. He finished his first NHL campaign with 11 points in the final 10 contests. He'll be working (most likely) with a fourth-year popping, Nico Hischier. I like that potential. (dec9)

10. The Flyers have inked a major part of their blueline. Philippe Myers is a player who I’ve had my eye on for some time. It’s not too often you see a 6’5, fleet-footed defender slip through the draft and land a deal as a UFA. That’s exactly what the 23-year-old did.

In his rookie season last year, he saw his minutes ratchet up to the 20-minute mark in the 16 return to play summer games. His production was muted, but you could see the flashes at times. For multicat leagues, his two hits and one block per game weren’t too shabby either.

Moving forward, I think we see the reigns continue to be eased on this horse. He’s the best right-handed defender on the team – no offense to Justin Braun. Look for he and Travis Sanheim to be the team’s top pairing – facing all the hard matchups. That won’t do wonders for his production as PP time will continue to be difficult to carve out. But it should lend itself to more peripheral cats being filled. If we’re speaking real-life, I love the deal length and cost. I think Myers has the upside to be a legitimate asset for a long time in Philadelphia. (dec9)

UPDATE:

Since the NHL season is expected to be 56 games, Dobber has updated the projections in the Fantasy Guide and the Draft List accordingly. If you’re looking for those exact numbers, then you can go to the Downloads section on the website and download an updated version. That’s one more reason that the Dobber Guide is the best fantasy hockey guide out there.

11. I may be crazy, but I think we see the Penguins reassert themselves as a Cup contender in the condensed 2021 season. This flies in the face of conventional wisdom which would indicate that the Pens are on the downslide. The on-ice product has been less consistent from the days of back-to-back championships. However, the club has been a clean 100-point club for the last three seasons.

Last year, they did so on the back of some serious production from key members. Evgeni Malkin led the league in points-per-60 minutes (3.46). His 1.35 points-per-game put him on pace for a ridiculous 110-point season. That matches exactly what Nate MacKinnon produced in what many believed was a Hart Trophy-calibre campaign. Tristan Jarry stole the starting gig and was tied for third in even-strength save percentage (.929). As a club, they were a top-10 team in Corsi. They were top-10 in penalty-killing efficiency. They did this while Sidney Crosby missed nearly 20 games. Jake Guentzel missed 30. They had Jason Zucker for just 15 total contests.

We can assume that Malkin will not be on God-mode when Crosby is healthy, but he’s still a very real 100-point pace threat even at his age. Ditto for Sid. Guentzel is one of the most devastating finishers in the game. If you want decent betting odds, throwing some coin on him to take the Rocket is a wise option.

I like the addition of Kasperi Kapanen to insert more speed into the top six. John Marino is sneaky good and only getting better. Ditto for Jarry. Kris Letang – when healthy, can still pop with the best of them. I think there will be some opportunities for players to hit juicy numbers and drive this team to near the top of the Eastern standings. Or I’m way off, the older players will struggle with the condensed schedule, suffer injuries and Pittsburgh will fall out of the playoff picture. Who the hell knows right now? (dec9)

12. Where does everyone stand on Martin Necas? He will be 22 years old for next season and it’s his third pro season in North America (second in the NHL). His playmaking numbers, like shot assists and zone entries with control, were very good last year and they were similarly good the year before.

There are two questions here: does he earn more ice time and does he shoot more? He was given third-line minutes last year and was nowhere near even two shots per game. Being a great playmaker is nice for real hockey, but to be a valuable fantasy commodity, he needs more than assists, and relying on 18 percent shooting to get near 20 goals is a real bad idea.

He seems to be developing into a wonderful player, but I don’t wonder if he ends up being more valuable in real life. He does hit, so he can bring something in banger leagues, but without the shots and goals, it might not be enough. All the same, I’m excited to see what he can do in the coming couple years. (dec8)

13. Over the last couple of weeks I have been writing about changing power-play units. One team that is of interest is Vegas. Last year, they ran a heavily-used top unit that featured Shea Theodore on the blue line. Now, they have both Theodore and Alex Pietrangelo. Both are going to get power-play minutes, so it’s a matter of how that time will be split.

My initial lean is that this team is going to effectively run two split units, one helmed by Theodore and one by Pietrangelo. How the forwards are split, and whether time is split evenly, is another matter. But I do not think they signed Pietrangelo for nearly $9M a season to leave him off the power play, and Theodore is too good to leave him off as well.

That is good news for depth forwards like Alex Tuch or a rookie like Cody Glass, as they may get more PP time than they would have if Pietrangelo not been signed. But it’s probably bad news for Theodore as he may get his PPTOI cut, and the same will be true for Alec Martinez, who actually averaged over two minutes per game of PPTOI in the playoffs. This is all provided they run two different 4F/1D units. If not, he could still get close to that same level of PPTOI. (dec8)

There are changes coming to Vegas, though how many and how big is still unknowable. This seems like a case where the team got better but it may not necessarily mean good things fantasy-wise for everyone affected.

14. Two weeks ago, I looked at the situation with a few remaining key restricted free agents (here). Here are a few more:

Jesper Bratt (New Jersey Devils) – The Devils have the cap space to get this done, so there is no question that they will. Connor Brown signed a three-year, $3.6M AAV deal with almost exact production stats (38 goals, 100 points) over the last three years. However, Brown never gets injured and is four years older, indicating his contract should be higher despite Bratt’s superior per-game production. I think he comes in at an even $3.5M, but the delay is likely him trying to push this over the $4M mark. (dec7)

15. Oliver Kylington (Calgary Flames) – The Flames are a little snug against the cap. They could sign him for $1M even, and then have zero wiggle room for deadline deals. I think the delay here is likely Kylington pushing for a one-way deal, when the Flames may be angling for a two-year contract that is two-way in the first year, one-way in the second. The dollars should end up similar to Toronto’s Travis Dermott at $874,000. (dec7)

16. Vince Dunn (St. Louis Blues) – The Blues won’t have the cap room to sign Dunn until Vladimir Tarasenko and Alex Steen are placed on LTIR. After Dunn’s down year, the Blues may be trying to get him in under the $2M mark, even if it’s just for a year. If it’s a long-term deal I would be shocked, but if it gets to four or five years then this would push above the $3.5M AAV mark. But I expect a bridge deal, likely just a year or two, for $2.5M AAV. I am not worried about him not being signed in time. (dec7)

17. Ethan Bear (Edmonton Oilers) – The Oilers are another team with no cap space, already slightly above the max. If the team waives Gaetan Haas or Joakim Nygard it would reduce their forwards to 14 and their cap hit by around $900K. Bear has certainly earned more than that, though, after averaging 22 minutes per game of ice time and tallying 21 points as a rookie. Although he’s worth over $2M on a short-term deal, I have a feeling the Oilers may convince him to pull a Kevin Labanc and do the team a favor. (dec7)

18. We know how hot Kevin Fiala got during the second half of last season. That hot stretch was enough for Fiala to take not only the Wild scoring lead (54 points) but also the points per 60 lead (3.3 PTS/60). In terms of Wild regulars, Fiala was way down the list in ice time (15:24), behind all of Zach Parise, Eric Staal, Mats Zuccarello, Joel Eriksson Ek, Mikko Koivu, and Luke Kunin.

The low ice time was tilted toward the first half, when Fiala was averaging around 14 minutes per game. As the second half began, Fiala started to average 16-17 minutes, which seemed to be fair. As you might expect, the Wild have a very even distribution of ice time, with no forward averaging more than just over 17 minutes per game. Yet the coaching change from Bruce Boudreau to Dean Evason seemed to help Fiala. Now that Fiala has established himself as a bona fide scoring threat, that might change.

Fiala’s IPP was high (80.6%), a characteristic of being productive. That and a higher-than-normal 5-on-5 shooting percentage of 9.7% suggest that we shouldn’t expect a massive jump in production from Fiala. Yet the second-half production indicates that bigger and better things are to come. (dec6)

19. Outside of Montreal, it might not be well known that Tomas Tatar led the Canadiens in scoring in 2019-20 (61 points), and he did so 14 points clear of the next-highest scorer Phillip Danault. Tatar was the team’s leading scorer even though four Habs forwards (Danault, Joel Armia, Max Domi, Brendan Gallagher) averaged more ice time than Tatar (16:18). That’s why Tatar’s 3.3 PTS/60 was significantly higher than the next-highest total from Gallagher (2.6 PTS/60). After that, no Montreal regular averaged more than 2.2 PTS/60.

Over his career, Tatar has never had more than a 2.7 PTS/60, which he reached last season. Both Tatar’s PTS/60 and IPP (between 71 and 75%) have never been higher than they’ve been in Montreal. That’s why it’s a bit surprising that the Habs may decide to move on from Tatar after the season, as he has one year left on his contract. Marc Bergevin decided to sign newcomers Josh Anderson and Tyler Toffoli to lucrative contracts this offseason, which could be another reason that Tatar and Danault (also a UFA after 2020-21) may not be back after this season. (dec6)

20. Coach Lindy Ruff is not shy of playing his good players a lot. During his Stars tenure, Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn were regularly playing 19-20 minutes a game. I am betting that the New Jersey top-6 gets more ice time this season than they did under John Hynes, and that’s great news for fantasy. (dec10)

21. And finally, if you have a problem owner in your fantasy league, have a fireside chat with them. Make it clear what isn’t tolerated, whether it’s unsportsmanlike conduct, non-payment, or general inactivity. If it’s apparent that the issue won’t get resolved, send the owner on their way, then go to the Dobber Forum League Classifieds to find a new owner if you or any of the other owners don’t know anyone else that is interested.

Remember that this is only a game. If it’s not fun anymore, then maybe it’s time to scale back or get out. (dec6)

Have a good week, folks – be safe!!

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