Every Sunday, we’ll share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Cam Robinson, and Dobber

1. In my auction league, Jakub Vrana was one of those players who was overlooked at first but whose interest has picked up. With long-time stars such as Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, Evgeny Kuznetsov and John Carlson on the Capitals, it’s easy to overlook Vrana. Yet there he was on a 0.75 PTS/GP pace and his first 50-point season. Over his four NHL seasons, Vrana has made some nice incremental gains.

The most productive Capital in terms of points/60 in 2019-20 was Vrana (3.0 PTS/60) – not Ovechkin or Backstrom or Carlson or Kuznetsov. League-wise, that was just outside of the top 30. In spite of the recent production, Vrana still continues to average less than 15 minutes per game. Not surprisingly, he has also been used on the Capitals’ second power-play unit, yet he still managed to chip in 12 power-play points.

I won’t get into as much detail as Rick did about Vrana in his recent Goldipucks and the Three Skaters, but I’d concur that Vrana is up for an additional scoring increase. If the Capitals find a way to use him on the first-unit power play, then look out. His ADP is currently 96.7 in Yahoo leagues, so you could be pulling some great value if you can add him after pick 100. (dec19)

2. Not surprisingly, goalies with the highest amount of quality starts tend to be the high-volume goalies. Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck led the league with 36 quality starts in 2019-20, followed by Andrei Vasilevskiy and Carey Price, who each recorded 31 QS.

By examining quality start percentage, however, we may be able to find some potentially undervalued goalies. Darcy Kuemper was the runaway winner here with a 75.9% QS%. In other words, you can sleep easier knowing that your fantasy team’s starting goalie will earn a quality start three of the four times he suits up. Kuemper was on his way to a Vezina Trophy nomination (2.22 GAA, .928 SV%) before a lower-body injury sidelined him just before Christmas. As a result, he didn’t even finish among the top 10 in total quality starts.

Last week I discussed goals-saved above average. Not surprisingly, Kuemper was near the top of that stat, finishing fourth with 16.65 GSAA and second with 0.57 GSAA/60 (minimum 15 games). Backup Antti Raanta was not far behind in GSAA and GSAA/60 either, which is a testament to the strong defensive system of the Coyotes. Kuemper should provide solid value in fantasy drafts, as he’ll probably still be available once the big names are off the board. (dec18)

3. Henrik Lundqvist will miss the 2020-21 season because of a heart condition. He was expected to push up-and-coming Ilya Samsonov for starts, but because he signed a one-year contract, it’s possible that he never plays for the Capitals. Hopefully we see him in an NHL uniform again one day, but for now his health is the main priority.

It’s possible that one of Vitek Vanecek or Pheonix Copley move into the backup role. Vanecek posted the better AHL numbers in 2019-20 (2.26 GAA, .917 SV%), so he may have the upper hand should the Capitals decide to promote internally. The Capitals, who are in win-now mode, could also sign a leftover 35+ year-old veteran such as Ryan Miller, Craig Anderson, or Jimmy Howard. A trade for a goalie on the market like Marc-Andre Fleury is another option. For now, the unavailability of Lundqvist would mean more starts for Samsonov.

Elsewhere on Thursday, the Panthers broke the month-and-a-half freeze on significant player signings, inking free agent Anthony Duclair to a one-year contract worth $1.7 million. You can find out more in the Fantasy Take. (dec18)

4. Arizona needs goal scoring in the worst way and Jan Jenik may be their best goal-scoring prospect. He has nothing to prove in the OHL and with the departure of Taylor Hall, there is room on the left side in the top-6 for Jenik, as well as a spot on the top PP unit. The problem is I think they move a left shot or two to the wing because they have Christian Dvorak, Derek Stepan, Nick Schmaltz, Johan Larsson, and Barrett Hayton all capable of playing center. One of Larsson or Hayton probably gets moved to the left, and suddenly now Jenik, Hayton, and Lawson Crouse are all fighting for the LW2 spot. There is competition, just not stiff.

5. I truly believe that Joe Veleno may be the lynchpin to the entire rebuild of the Red Wings. They have, or are growing, their prospect depth in a lot of spots except for center. Beyond Dylan Larkin, there’s not much the team can hang its hat on down the middle moving forward. Veleno turning into a legitimate middle-six center would solve a lot of problems for the Red Wings down the line, like having to go out and sign players like Frans Nielsen. I know for some reason it feels like he’s been around forever, but Veleno’s still 20 years old and doesn’t turn 21 until next month.

6. Earlier this week, hockey writer Michael Russo let us know that the Wild was on the verge of signing Andrew Hammond, which they did, since it was believed that Alex Stalock was/is hurt entering camp, which he is.

This is an exciting turn of events in Minny. I was already going to be sneaky high on Kaapo Kahkonen this season. There’s a real opportunity brewing for the 24-year-old. As let’s face it a Cam Talbot/Stalock tandem doesn’t exactly scream Jennings Trophy.

Kahkonen has been marinating for, well, ever. He’s proven himself at the Finnish Liiga level. He’s proven himself at the AHL level. He’s ready to push for an NHL job and this may be the opening he needs. This is one of those situations where the third-string AHL goalie could conceivably steal the number one job and run with it, never looking back. We’ve seen it before. Igor Shesterkin anyone? It’s far from a lock, but I’d be sniffing around Kahkonen on the wire or late in drafts. (dec16)

7. Speaking of potential thieving netminders, Jake Oettinger could do the same this year. Ben Bishop is on the shelf until April. He’s 34 years old and will be a rusty hinge. Anton Khodobin will be the man, but he’s no spring chicken either, he’ll need time off.

Enter Oettinger. The former first-round pick was very good last season on a floundering Texas Stars’ squad. He has the size, the pedigree, the metrics. He’s a potential thief. (dec16)

8. As the NHL season appears to be inching closer to commencing (hopefully on January 13th), the top U20 event in the world will be a perfect appetizer. An amuse-bouche fit for a starved hockey community.

And on Christmas Day to boot.

The event is always home to future NHL stars and potential fantasy studs. This year will be no different. Sure, it could have had Alexis Lafreniere, Jack Hughes, Kaapo Kakko, and Nicholas Robertson. But even though those four fellas will keep their sights squarely on the NHL season, the talent left behind should not be discounted.

Let’s check in on a few of the top cats from the fun teams, what is expected of them, and how long we have to wait to cash in on their fantasy value. Below are two, you can see the rest by following the link… (dec16)

9. Lucas Raymond, W, Sweden: I thought about doing a Wonder Twins special here and profile Brooklyn 99’s Raymond (&) Alexander Holtz, but I feel this is Raymond’s time to shine.

Despite landing fourth overall to the Wings back in October, the world has somehow seemingly lost sight of how talented the 18-year-old is. Raymond is an explosive winger who can drive play, set up mates with creativity and finesse or finish off chances himself. He always finds a way to dominate against his age-group and this event should be no different.

The Wait Time: Expect Raymond to land in Detroit ahead of the 2021-22 season. But don't bet on the big totals right off of the bat. He may have a little Elias Pettersson in him, but he's not quite there. (dec16)

10. Vasily Podkolzin, RW, Russia: If Kirby Dach has the goods to be the top offensive forward in the event, Podkolzin has the ability to be the most decisive two-way threat. The 19-year-old will captain the Russians and will play every minute of every game. Okay, maybe that’s an exaggeration. But after seeing limited deployment with SKA St Petersburg of the KHL the last two seasons, it may feel that way.

The Canucks’ 2019 first-round pick lives in high-traffic areas. He mixes all of the energy in a skillful, willful package. He will be physically dominant against his peer group and should be able to manhandle his way into the paint whenever he chooses. It’s his third go-around at the event and many are expecting a double-digit point total this time around.

The Wait Time: The Russian is coming. At the conclusion of his KHL deal in April (and assuming there are no World Championships this year), Podkolzin will be suiting up in the Canucks lineup as they play stretch-drive hockey.

His offensive ceiling won’t be that of a bell ringer, but he should be a serious asset in multicat leagues. (dec16)

11. It is wild to me the level of disrespect Kyle Palmieri gets. He has scored at least 24 goals in five straight seasons. He is one of eight players to do this. The other seven players are: Jack Eichel, Patrick Kane, Nikita Kucherov, Brad Marchand, Alex Ovechkin, Artemi Panarin, and John Tavares. I don’t think people realize not only how good he is, but how consistent he is. In an 82-game season, you can pen him in for 25 goals, 200 shots, and a hit per game. Just lock it in and move along. (Yes, injuries throw the raw totals out of whack. I am talking about paces here.)

This year, he’ll almost certainly be playing on the top line with Nico Hischier. He has never been a guy to play monster minutes and that, along with marginal teammates, is why he’ll never be a 40-goal or 75-point guy. But bringing what he does in multi-cat leagues is very valuable, and it appears he’ll be a great value at the draft table.

For now, Palmieri finds himself in the same company as Max Pacioretty and Sean Monahan in my goal-scoring rankings for 2021. He will almost certainly be outside the top-100 picks in most any league and I’d wager outside the top-150 in many. As has been the case for years: Draft Palmieri. (dec15)

12. I have spilled a lot of digital ink over Andrei Svechnikov for a few years so my affinity for him is well-known. I have to say, however, that seeing him as a top-5 winger by draft slotting on Yahoo! has me nervous. Similarly, he’s ranked in the top-30 by ESPN, and their standard scoring doesn’t include hits.

This is… a big ask of Svechnikov. For reference, on Yahoo! last year, Artemi Panarin – all 95 points in 69 games – was the number-6 left winger. To be a top-5 winger, even with 100 hits in 56 games, Svech probably needs to be a point-per-game winger or better.

I am not saying he can’t do it. In fact, I expect him to be a point-per-game winger at some point in his career. It is just a lot to ask of a 20-year-old who has never done it. That is compounded by the fact that three top-5 left wingers from 2019-20 – J.T. Miller, Brad Marchand, Max Pacioretty – are all being drafted later than Svech, and at least two of those have the pedigrees to back it up (though Marchand’s injury, and David Pastrnak‘s injury, muddles things a bit).

This isn’t to say avoid Svech at all costs, but if I can grab an elite center like Mika Zibanejad/Evgeni Malkin or an elite defenseman like Cale Makar or Roman Josi, instead of drafting Svechnikov, and then grab someone like Pacioretty or Jake Guentzel two rounds later, I would probably be happier doing that than drafting Svech and, say, Patrice Bergeron or Quinn Hughes. (dec15)

13. There is a lot of chatter around the young guns coming to Minnesota, and there is justification for that chatter. That is all well and good, but can we not forget about the guy who has scored 53 goals over his 143 games, which works out to over 30 goals every 82 games?

My initial projections have Parise in the same goal-scoring neighbourhood as Nikita Kucherov and Dominik Kubalik. He won’t get there because of the young wingers being installed, he won’t play 19 minutes a game, and there’s not a top-6 center with NHL experience on the roster.

In fact, this is probably the end of the road for Parise and fantasy goodness. It is hard to see him playing exclusively with Marco Rossi whenever Rossi is ready and there are no other good offensive centers on the roster and none in the pipeline ready to step up. Parise is 36 years old and is no longer a shot-volume monster. That means he’ll rely on shooting percentages for big goal totals, and a high shooting percentage for a winger with bad centers is something that doesn’t often happen.

A quick shout out to Parise on what was a pretty good fantasy career. Two point-per-game seasons in New Jersey, six 30-goal seasons and one 40-goal season, five seasons with at least 250 shots, and six seasons with double-digit PP goals. It has been five years since he’s really had a great fantasy campaign, but he was excellent for many, many years. It is just probably the end of that road. (dec15)

14. Reader @jshouly asked: Upside for Alexis Lafreniere and who will be his linemates this year?

I would love to see him on the third line with Filip Chytil and Kaapo Kakko. Here are my line combos in the Guide:

Artemi Panarin – Mika Zibanejad – Pavel Buchnevich
Chris Kreider – Ryan Strome – Julien Gauthier
Lafreniere – Chytil – Kakko

But line combos are fickle, always changing. And don’t worry about Lafreniere’s production – he’ll produce points even if you’re at center and I’m on the other wing. He’ll be on the top PP unit by midseason. (dec14)

15. Reader @tubbswpg asked: Who are some good players that aren’t really on the radar right now, but could be coming into their 4-year window/prime very soon??

Jack Roslovic, Jesper Bratt, Jake Virtanen, Colton Parayko, Adrian Kempe. (dec14)

16. Reader @jldtwo asked: Is there a young Defenseman that you feel will make a significant impact points-wise this year that might be flying under the radar??

These players ‘could’ (not ‘will’): Ryan Pulock, Mike Matheson, Matt Grzelcyk, Juuso Valimaki, Brogan Rafferty. (dec14)

17. Reader @WilcoWacko asked: Keeper league questions : Anton Khudobin in the 7th round, or Matt Murray in round 15? Can keep 2 of Domink Kubalik, or Kevin Fiala in round 16/17, or Alex DeBrincat in round 6? Thanks Dobber.

Take Murray in the 15th round. Keep Fiala and Kubalik in those later rounds. I like DeBrincat better than Kubalik of course, but with 10 rounds of value difference it’s probably best if you keep Kubalik, and then re-draft DeBrincat in a later round. (dec14)

18. Reader @SirNope asked: Long-term keeper league, weigh in on what we do if the 56-game schedule is significantly altered/shortened? 

My keeper leagues will award the trophy and prize money to whoever is winning the season ends. Just like last year. If the NHL does it, then the game that we all play and try to match the NHL as much as possible – fantasy hockey – can do it too. Would be smart to mention it to your entire league, before the season even starts, that this is what you plan to do. And make it clear that this could mean that some teams play 47 games while others play 45 games. This doesn’t necessarily mean that the end of the season’s games gets lopped off. It could actually mean that two weeks get chopped out of the middle of the season and never get made up. (dec14)

19. Reader @hockey0097 asked: When should Kirill Kaprizov get drafted?

This depends on your categories and if your league is a keeper or a one-year. He should go immediately after Alexis Lafreniere in a keeper league, and ahead of him in a one-year league. I have him ranked in the mid-60s among skaters in my Draft List. If your league leans heavy on points and ignores peripherals, then he’s sixth round in a 12-team points league. If it’s a roto league, then you’ll bump him down to around the Jakub Vrana zone. They’ll have similar numbers across the board. (dec14)

20. Reader @Dibbler2 asked: Have to keep two of Bjorkstrand, Vrana, Ehlers, E. Lindhom? G, A, PIM, Blks, Hts.

Whoa, this is a tough one. Seriously, this one is close. When the answer isn’t obvious, the first thing I do is try to look at their stats one on top of the other. Best tool for that – Player Compare. Here is Player Compare for those four players.

As you can see, all four players are closely-ranked in my Top 300 Skaters list (for points-only though), with each ranked between 40 (Lindholm) and 63 (Jakub Vrana). Lindholm also appears in Ian’s Top Roto list at 80. So Lindholm is one of your picks right there. Looking at the Basic Stats area, and keeping in mind that Bjorkstrand missed time last year, I rule out Vrana from the contest. He matches up in terms of points, but his PIM and Hits fall short of where the other two could reach.

So, we’re down to Elias Lindholm and one of either Nik Ehlers or Oliver Bjorkstrand. The latter guy has higher upside, but Ehlers has a better and more proven track record. This comes down to your preference – if you want to swing for the fences and risk injury (Bjorkstrand was hurt twice last year), then you go Bjorkstrand. If you want the safe guy who still has great upside, you go Ehlers. If it’s me, I play it safe and take Nik. (dec14)

21. Erik Gustafsson is a low floor/high ceiling player whose value could be all over the map. Because he’s not a high-volume shooter, Gustafsson will never be valued in roto leagues the same way someone like Brent Burns or Dougie Hamilton will. His inclination is offense, so there’s going to be interest in fantasy leagues.

It appears that the Flyers have brought him in on a one-year, “prove it” deal because they’re not getting the production they’d hoped from Shayne Gostisbehere. With Ghost still on the books for three more years, he probably shouldn’t be ruled out completely. Note that his power-play time didn’t decrease by much, yet his power-play points were cut in half. To a lesser degree, so did his overall ice time and his points per game. So it’s hard to know what to really make of him in 2020-21. Does he quarterback Philly’s first-unit power play, or does Ivan Provorov?

Since Gustafsson and Ghost are similar players, it’s possible that this evolves into an offensive specialist platoon situation. If one scores and the other doesn’t, then the one who isn’t scoring might be spending time in the press box. They’re not in the lineup for their defensive skills, so it’s scoring or bust. I’d lean toward Gustafsson in this case, since Ghost’s numbers have declined the past two seasons and the Flyers will want to give their new defenseman a try. Just understand the risk, and try not to reach for Gustafsson. (dec13)

Have a good week, folks – be safe!!

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