Every Sunday, we’ll share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Cam Robinson, and Dobber

1. Not to draw much from a handful of WJC tournament games but it really does look like Bowen Byram is ready for the NHL. The problem is that Colorado is one of the very few NHL teams with too much defensive depth Cale Makar, Ryan Graves, Sam Girard, and Devon Toews are a lock for the lineup. Erik Johnson and Ian Cole are still around. They also have Conor Timmins. That is legitimately great depth.

Also, there’s the ELC factor. If Byram burns a year this year, he will come up for his second contract at the same time Nathan MacKinnon is UFA. Between now and then, they have a handful of secondary players coming up, plus captain Gabriel Landeskog and Makar. It would likely behoove them to delay Byram’s ELC, especially where they don’t really need him. (dec31)

2. Still with the Avs, if you’re asked to list the top 5 goalies in the NHL, chances are you wouldn’t think of adding Philipp Grubauer to that list. Yet in fantasy leagues, wins are the name of the game. Grubauer should get plenty of those, since he plays for a team that is among the short list of favorites to win the Stanley Cup.

A key reason that Grubauer is not among the elite is that he has never played 40 games in an NHL season. This has a lot to do with the fact that he has been a backup for the majority of his NHL career, but staying healthy has also been a big challenge. Pavel Francouz (ADP 110.5) is being drafted in a lot of leagues for those reasons, as there’s a chance he could end up playing more games (and thus earning more wins) than Grubauer. (jan1)

3. It’s a Dunn deal. The Blues took care of some unfinished business by signing RFA defenseman Vince Dunn to a one-year contract worth $1.875 million. Dunn scored 23 points (9g-14) in 71 games, but he’s of some interest in fantasy leagues because ten of those points were on the power play.

The Blues essentially swapped Alex Pietrangelo with Torey Krug as their PP1 QB, so Dunn will probably have to compete with Colton Parayko and Justin Faulk for second-unit power-play minutes. (jan1)

4. Good news for Brad Marchand owners. According to Boston Hockey Now, it appears that the pesky forward should be ready for the start of training camp. Marchand underwent sports hernia surgery in September and was expected to be recovered sometime in January, so it sounds like he hasn’t had any major setbacks.

Marchand currently has an ADP of 25 on Yahoo and finished sixth in league scoring in 2019-20 (87 points). He was a first-round pick in many 12-team fantasy drafts last season, so you’d be getting great value if you are able to grab him in the second round (in the teens or early 20s). Assuming no issues with the offseason surgery, of course.

From the same article, David Pastrnak owners still shouldn’t expect him to be ready for the start of the season. Pasta’s offseason surgery was expected to sideline him until mid-February, and that still appears to be the case. If you’re looking for a speculation grab to fill Pastrnak’s spot on the top line with Marchand and Patrice Bergeron, UFA signing Craig Smith might be worth considering, as is Ondrej Kase and Anders Bjork. Maybe wait to see the training camp line combinations before deciding, if you can. (jan1)

5. Pierre-Luc Dubois, who may be looking for a change of scenery according to some rumblings, and the Blue Jackets agreed to a two-year, $10 million bridge deal. This probably makes sense for Dubois, who may be in a better position for a bigger payday in two years, when teams are (hopefully) better able to sign players to more lucrative deals.

It also doesn’t rule out the possibility that the Jackets trade Dubois if he really wants out, as his cap hit will be more manageable in the short term, and an acquiring team can craft their own long-term deal. Dubois is currently just outside of the Top 100 Roto Rankings on the wait list. For more about Dubois, you can check out what I wrote about him in a Ramblings from back in October. (jan1)

6. If you participate in a multicategory league, I recommend purchasing the Fantasy Hockey Geek Draft Kit. If you’ve bought the Fantasy Guide already, there is a coupon code on page 8 for 40% off. If you haven’t purchased the Fantasy Guide or the Geek Draft Kit yet, consider combining them in a Platinum Subscription where you can take advantage of these two products and much more!

Staying on the subject, I’ve been told in the past that I’ve ranked Mikko Rantanen (Yahoo ADP 15.3) too low on the Top 100 Roto Rankings. True, he deserves a high ranking for being a point-per-game scorer over the past three seasons. Over that span, he’s 13th in points-per-game (1.08) among players who have played at least 190 games. So in pure points leagues, he’s ranked about where he should be.

What drags him down in multicategory leagues is the lack of shots. Rantanen has never taken 200 shots in a single season, which is why he should never be held in the same regard in roto leagues as a high-volume shooter like teammate Nathan MacKinnon. Rantanen is also not an overly physical player, so the hits and blocked shots will need to come from elsewhere. (jan2)

7. Zdeno Chara being in Washington now instead of Boston doesn't change much for me for his fantasy outlook, but I think it's an upgrade on the bottom pair. That is not nothing when it comes to team defense, and in turn, goaltending. (dec31)

8. Kirby Dach had successful wrist surgery and will be out 4-5 months. That's a big old yikes. The Hawks took a risk sending him to the WJC knowing that it would interfere with training camp. They did so because they kept him in the NHL last season instead of letting him participate, and this was the 19-year-old's final crack at the event.

The positive aspect was that Dach would experience high-level hockey ahead of training camp, represent his country and presumably see a lot of confidence and success. The risk was, well, exactly what happened. A long term injury before the action even began.

Dach was scribbled in as Chicago's No.2 center this season. He was spending the majority of his time next to Patrick Kane during the return to play in the summer. His six points in nine games were telling of his progress as an offensive threat. It was expected they'd be together again in 2021. Now we won't see him until May or June. That means he'll have played just nine games in 14 or so months. Not ideal. I still love Dach long term but Kane isn't getting any younger and the depth chart doesn't boast a ton of game-breakers coming. (dec30)

9. The next part of the bad news for the Blackhawks came from the team's captain. Jonathan Toews released a statement on Tuesday indicating that he's suffering from lethargy and lack of energy. He will remain out indefinitely until he and the medical team can figure out why.

This leaves the team without their top two pivots. No Bueno. Their lineup is going to be pretty gross. I don't know about you, but I'm already looking to dump my Kane stocks. He's so so good, but at some point, he's going to slow down and being saddled with a mostly AHL lineup isn't going to help matters. Expect Chicago to be picking very early in the next draft. (dec30)

10. Because of the injuries to Kirby Dach and Alex Nylander, the Blackhawks had a need for a center who could also play some wing and Carl Soderberg should fit in as a middle-six forward who can also play some wing, which makes him a possible waiver-wire add this season if he can find the right linemates.

He’s very quietly recorded just over a half point per game over the last three seasons (121 points in 229 games), including 35 points (17g-18a) in 70 games in Arizona in 2019-20.

Soderberg’s contract is for one year at $1 million, which makes it low risk for the Blackhawks as they attempt to fill a short-term void. If they fall out of the playoff race, Soderberg seems like the perfect player to flip for a draft pick. (dec27)

11. This is a year where difficult decisions need to be made. Nikita Kucherov is out for the year, Tyler Seguin and Vladimir Tarasenko could miss most of it, David Pastrnak will probably miss at least a month (which works out to more than 20 games in a typical 82-game season), and so on. We also don’t know how teams will treat prospects with the introduction of the taxi squad and the Canadian Hockey League’s members being uncertain to return at any point this winter.

Could we see more rookies burn an ELC because teams just need bodies if, say, the entire top-6 has to be quarantined for 10 days because of a COVID case? Also, if teams are missing players, the top of the roster tends to get more minutes. Is this going to be a season where guys who typically play 18-19 minutes are now over 20 minutes? And guys who play 17-18 are now pushing over 19? I am sure teams will want to rest their players given the condensed schedule, but if the NHL has the same problems the NFL and MLB had, they may not have a choice. When the puck drops, coaches still want to win.

For me, this is a year where if fantasy owners think their keeper/dynasty teams need a reset, now is the time to do exactly that. I think we’ll get a look at more rookies this year and teams at the top of fantasy leagues will need to swing trades to fill their rosters as they deplete over the season. I think it’s a good year to add assets for the future. (dec29)

12. The trade that sent Braydon Coburn and Cedric Paquette to Ottawa piques my interest from a fantasy perspective for one reason: what can Paquette’s peripherals look like with some additional ice time?

I say that because, and this is completely true, he has averaged over three hits per game over the last two years despite averaging under 12:30 in TOI per night. That came off the heels of averaging 2.25 the two seasons prior to that while playing under 11 minutes a night. There were 284 forwards with at least 2000 even-strength minutes these last three years, and Paquette was third in hits/60. That level of physicality means even a rise from 12:30 a night to 14:30 a night could see a big jump in raw hit totals. That doubles as well for his PIM rates, if only more muted because he’s not as much of a PIM-taker as he is a hit-maker.

Maybe he doesn’t get more ice time. He is a center, with Derek Stepan being added recently and Chris Tierney still around, along with Colin White (who looked like he may have had the 1C slotting until about five days ago), there are enough centers here to compete with him for TOI. Not necessarily good ones, but he’s not either, so everyone is kind of in the same boat. With the prospects hopefully putting up some sort of fight in camp, it’s far from a guarantee, or even a likelihood, that Paquette gets more TOI. Just remember he’ll be on a new team in a division loaded with rivals in a season built for rivalries. His physical play could go start overclocking this season. (I have my doubts Tim Stuetzle starts at center but who knows.) (dec29)

13. The Kings added Andreas Athanasiou to the roster, signing him for a year at $1.2-million. This is an intriguing landing spot for AA because this team has been devoid of true depth scoring for many years and he is not far removed from a 30-goal season.

At the same time, the top line seems set and I would usually lean to incumbents when making lineups. I don't see the reason for AA to replace Alex Iafallo or Dustin Brown, at least not for several games. In that sense, it'll be hard to see AA flourish in a depth role there. I think we see him float in the middle-6 to give them some depth scoring punch, and that likely means a goal output similar to last year.

There are some hockey maxims I have taken to over the years and one of them is "the hardest minutes for any player are those with bad linemates." Not sure on the source but it always rang true for me. The Detroit roster last year, outside the top four five players, was flat-out bad. It has been for a while. I think we saw his upside when he gets lucky with shooting percentages. I think we also saw his downside when his team's percentages aren't in his favor. Whether that changes in Los Angeles, well, they're a better roster than Detroit anyway. There is something here with AA, it's just a matter of unlocking it consistently. I have no idea if that happens. (dec29)

14. In a weird, unexpected move, Mike Hoffman has signed a tryout contract with the St. Louis Blues earlier in the week. Currently the top unrestricted free agent still available, and he was in everyone’s Top 5 all along, Hoffman was looking at a multi-year $6.5+M AAV contract in a ‘normal’ year. This year, he still may get $5.5M. And rather than agree to less, he is making this move and is still free to sign a contract anywhere. Hoffman made a mistake in not signing on Day 1 when there was money. But he is making up for most of that mistake with this move, and literally leaving it to the very last minute.

This knocks Zach Sanford out of the top-6 and Mackenzie MacEachern out of the lineup. It also impacts how often Klim Kostin and Jordan Kyrou get into the lineup. I also think this knocks Jaden Schwartz down to the second PP unit – thereby upgrading that unit by a lot.

As for Hoffman’s production in St. Louis – he won’t be playing with any elite players, but he’ll still be playing with very good players. Hoffman will produce the same as always, which is at around a 60- or 65-point pace. (dec28)

15. With Derek Stepan and Taylor Hall gone, as well as Dobber Darling Vinnie Hinostroza and depth guys Michael Grabner, Brad Richardson and Carl Soderberg, Arizona is looking pretty thin. They only brought in Drake Caggiula, a third-liner, and Johan Larsson, a fourth-liner.

With Stepan being gone, that opens up PP time for Conor Garland, Barrett Hayton and Christian Fischer. At even strength, this shifts Nick Schmaltz to center and bumps up the ice time for both Fischer and Lawson Crouse. You may want to look into grabbing a couple of Arizona prospects, because not only is the team fairly thin up front, but the two guys they signed – Caggiula and Larsson – get injured often. (dec28)

16. Speaking of Stepan in Ottawa, the Senators signed their top prospect, Tim Stuetzle (I will always think of Alex Trebek when I write his name) to his ELC. I had Stuetzle not making the team originally, due to his German team maybe not releasing him. I later changed it to his making the team because, well, the team didn’t have much in the way of centermen. And now he has signed the contract just one day after the team acquired Stepan.

After careful thought, and seeing what the Sens did with Brady Tkachuk after drafting him, I am keeping Stuetzle on the team. And I gave it a 60% certainty. Yes, another benefit I have in my Fantasy Guide is that I provide a percentage of confidence I have in decisions because it’s more than just projecting XX points – in the case of Stuetzle it is XX points or zero points. And that percentage gives you the tools you need to make an informed decision.

Instead, I have Logan Brown not making the team and Josh Norris also getting cut. But in the case of Norris, I think he’s in for a quick recall as part of the taxi squad, getting into about two-thirds of NHL game action. For Brown, just a dozen games. (dec28)

17. The toughest division to predict a winner is going to be the East. While I would be surprised if my prediction (in the Fantasy Guide) was completely turned upside down, I wouldn’t be knocked out of my chair with shock. I mean, the Devils winning the division is unlikely, but I have six teams projected between 60 and 66 points. A win here or there puts one team in the playoffs and takes one team out.

The Sabres are on most predictions as part of the Bottom 3 in the division. But they will probably have Dylan Cozens (who just tallied six points in a game at the WJC), Taylor Hall and Eric Staal. This is a team who many felt underachieved last year. So if last year’s team meets those original expectations, plus add a Top 5 rookie, a recent Hart winner and a veteran second-line center, are they going to finish sixth or seventh in their division? (dec28)

18. People point to the Rangers’ defense and say “this is why they will miss the playoffs again”. But that offense is monstrous. And who can say that they wouldn’t trade a Tony DeAngelo for a left-shooting, defense-first stud? And… they have a goaltender who I think will win the Calder Trophy as the Rookie-of-the-Year. Igor Shesterkin thrives when he’s busy – and he’ll be busy. Keep this team out of the playoffs when possibly no team can match the three lines of offense that they boast? (dec28)

19. For the first time in 15 years of fantasy guides, I have picked the Toronto Maple Leafs to win the Stanley Cup. Not so much for the changes that they made in the offseason, although those moves were decent especially the T.J. Brodie and Joe Thornton signings. No, the main reason is the playoff format. The Leafs may struggle again versus the stifling Columbus defense. And they may not be able to psychologically get around the Bruins. And Tampa Bay is just a better team, plain and simple. But this year they won’t play any of those teams in the first two rounds. And I like the way they match up against the other Canadian squads.

Like it or not, this is the best chance they have of getting through those first two rounds that we’ve seen in years. And facing Boston in the semi-finals with just eight wins needed to take the Cup is a lot different than facing the Bruins in the first round yet again. If this team gets that far, then they’re not going to bow out easily after that. The playoff format is the reason I take Toronto.

I was a little afraid of being called a ‘homer’. But then I decided to not choose them would be showing a bias. I can’t not take a team because I live in the area (not in Toronto, but just outside of it). I have to look at it logically, and see how best it plays out. You have to admit – the playoff format really favors this team. (dec28)

20. Washington has a very good, underrated, prospect goaltender in Vitek Vanecek. I was excited to see that he would become their backup to Ilya Samsonov and honestly wondered if he could sneak in there and make enough of an impression to land a starting gig somewhere in two or three years. But the team went ahead and invited Craig Anderson to training camp. Having a veteran to backup Samsonov is more ideal for the team, which probably means Vanecek is left out in the cold. However, Vanecek has to clear waivers in order to be sent down. This will be an interesting situation to watch play out. (dec28)

21. Ilya Kovalchuk has made his return to the KHL official, signing a two-year contract with Avangard Omsk. If this is it for his NHL career, then perhaps he’ll receive some Hall of Fame consideration. In 926 career NHL games, Kovalchuk scored 443 goals and 876 points. In his two-season return to the NHL, Kovalchuk scored 26 goals and 60 points in 100 games, which may have been disappointing given his prior status as a superstar. Yet Father Time seemed to catch up, as Kovalchuk is now 37 years old. Best of luck to him in Russia. (dec27)

Have a good week, folks – be safe!!

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