Ramblings: Crawford Retires, Barzal Signs, Players Who Could Disappoint… But Still Provide Significant Value (Jan 10)
Ian Gooding
2021-01-10
A day after news broke that he would be taking a leave of absence from the Devils, Corey Crawford has announced his retirement after ten NHL seasons. Despite signing with New Jersey in the offseason, Crawford will finish his career having played for only the Blackhawks.
Crawford will be best known as having backstopped the Hawks to two Stanley Cups (2013, 2015), while he also played in two All-Star Games (2015, 2017) and shared in two Jennings Trophy wins (2013, 2015). Also, check out these playoff numbers.
These are considerable accomplishments, so his decision is understandable given the fact that he has battled headaches and light sensitivity from multiple head injuries in recent years. All the best to him in his retirement.
As mentioned yesterday, Mackenzie Blackwood will be in line for plenty of starts with Crawford's retirement. He should be upgraded slightly in rankings based on volume alone. Don't be surprised if the Devils bring in another goalie via free agency, waiver claim, or a trade.
Another note: The Blackhawks' decision to not re-sign Crawford this offseason and go with the inexperienced group of goalies suddenly doesn't look so bad. Combine that with the absences of Kirby Dach and Jonathan Toews and it appears that this will be a season for the Hawks to retool.
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The Penguins cancelled their Saturday practice because of an "abundance of caution" due to COVID-19 exposure. For now, it seems like they will continue on as planned toward their Wednesday season debut against the Flyers.
If you're starting to get worried about your players potentially missing games, keep in mind that the schedule has allowed certain windows throughout the season for games to be rescheduled, as well as a one-week buffer at the end of the season to allow for makeup games. Back-to-back games similar to baseball-style series (same teams playing multiple games at the same location) will allow for a reduction in travel, as will games only within a division (more the US than Canada).
As I mentioned yesterday, there's going to be a lot of juggling with the schedule. Even with the promise of makeup games, there are no guarantees that postponed games will actually be played. Expect the league to make every effort to make up the postponed games, though, as it would much rather decide a playoff race based on total points (teams playing the same number of games) as opposed to points percentage.
Meanwhile, 18 of the 19 players who were held out of Blue Jackets practice on Friday returned on Saturday. Mikko Koivu was the only Columbus player not to return.
Also, five Kings players were deemed “unfit to participate” in Saturday’s practice. We’ll have to wait and see if they will be ready for opening night.
Also in related news, the Lightning have announced that they will not have fans to start the season. I don't imagine there will be many teams that will allow fans. That is why we're seeing the alternate revenue streams such as the helmet ads and the sponsored division names, which truth be told no one really likes except maybe the sponsoring companies themselves. It beats the alternative of not enough money to play an NHL season, though. I just hope there's not a slippery slope toward European-style jerseys, which have more advertising than a newspaper.
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With just days left before the start of the season, Mathew Barzal and the Islanders have finally agreed on a contract. It is a three-year deal with a $7 million AAV. The contract leans toward being a bridge deal, which might be the best thing given the current economic climate. It's a sigh of relief for fantasy owners that have already drafted him, while the cap hit is relatively good value for salary cap leaguers.
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Early next week, look out for our Dobber Hockey Experts Panel, where we make predictions for the upcoming season. Included will be division winners, Stanley Cup finalists, awards picks, and a player to disappoint and a player to rebound. I won't reveal my picks until the article is posted.
Yesterday, I discussed three players that are potential rebound candidates and why they could be in for better results than last season. Today, I'll discuss three players who could disappoint, but could still provide significant value to your team.
One common thread among the following players? Same as yesterday, all three of these players are on my dynasty league team. As a writer, I believe owning a player enhances your knowledge on what to expect from the player.
Another common thread? All three of these players were mentioned in one of Tom Collins' recent Top 10 articles, Top 10 Players Who Will Disappoint in 2021. I'm not going to rehash exactly what Tom said, nor will this be a direct criticism of his article. What I'll try to focus on is what to expect from all three players, who are being universally drafted in Yahoo leagues.
Mika Zibanejad (Yahoo ADP 17, Fantrax ADP 30)
Between injury and the shortened season, Zibanejad fantasy owners had him for only 57 games last season. But man, did he make those games count. Among players who played in at least 50 games, only six players had a higher point-per-game average than Zibanejad (1.32 PTS/GP), while only David Pastrnak had a higher goals-per-60 average (2.0 G/60).
The concern with Zibanejad not being able to replicate that pace has a lot to do with his shooting percentage, which was 19.7% – much higher than his previous five seasons of around 11-13%. Many of his advanced metrics were also higher than normal, including 5-on-5 shooting percentage, PTS/60, and PDO. Perhaps over a full season he would have come back to earth a bit. That regression could hit this season, and it could be the difference between Zibanejad being an elite player and simply a very good player. If that means he scores only around a point per game, then fantasy owners should be able to live with that.
There's a bit of worry about injury as well. Zibanejad is a Band-Aid Boy trainee, having missed at least 10 games over three of his last four seasons. He did play all 82 games in 2018-19, as well as 80 and 81 games in his last two seasons in Ottawa, so staying healthy for a full season isn't unprecedented for Zibanejad.
Aleksander Barkov (Yahoo ADP 42, Fantrax ADP 47)
Barkov isn't here because his numbers peaked in 2019-20. In fact, Barkov's career season was 2018-19, when he came close to reaching 100 points (96 points in 82 games). In 2019-20, Barkov dipped to under a point per game with 62 points in 66 games. To make matters worse, Barkov lost one of his regular linemates (Evgenii Dadonov) and also a key member of his power play unit (Mike Hoffman).
The financial situation of the Panthers, no doubt elevated by COVID, meant that Hoffman and Dadonov could not be re-signed while equivalent replacements could not be acquired. Between that and the hiring of a goaltending excellence team (which includes Roberto Luongo), I think the Panthers are taking a page out of another low-budget sun belt team in the Arizona Coyotes by taking a more defensive approach. It is much more difficult to find information about the Panthers than say a team like the Leafs, so consider this speculation (opinion) on my part. If I'm on to something, I wonder about the long-term impact this could have on scorers like Barkov and Jonathan Huberdeau.
Even if Barkov scores at a point-per-game, which seems likely to me, he'll be hard-pressed to replicate his numbers of 2018-19. That season, three Panthers (Keith Yandle, Huberdeau, and Barkov) finished with at least 30 power-play points. Those players will still be featured on the top power-play, but only one (Huberdeau) was on pace to reach 30 power-play points over a full 2019-20 season. I'm okay with drafting Barkov expecting point-per-game numbers, but top-10 numbers seem like a stretch.
Frederik Andersen (Yahoo ADP 51, Fantrax ADP 28)
Andersen also didn't have a career season in 2019-20. In fact, it's possible that the Leafs move on from UFA-to-be Andersen with another disappointing postseason. Conversely, he'll be in a contract year, so the 31-year-old will have something to prove as he chases a lucrative multi-year contract.
In general, you might need to move goalies playing in the North (I'd rather call it Canadian) Division down your rankings with scorers like Connor McDavid, Auston Matthews, and Elias Pettersson ready to ring up some big numbers. Having said that, playing in the Canadian division could become a blessing for Andersen as well. That's because Toronto seems to be the strong favorite to win the division, which could mean plenty of wins for workhorse goalie Andersen.
Tom made a great point about the number of back-to-backs the Leafs play (10, tied for fourth-highest). However, the added rest could also benefit his ratios against said sharpshooters. Andersen has been overworked in past seasons, and I've wondered if load management with adequate backups (Jack Campbell, Aaron Dell) could have a positive impact on his goals-against average and save percentage, which have both been moving in the wrong direction in recent seasons.
If your league's scoring system is counting-total heavy (especially with wins but also saves), target Andersen more than in a league that is all about ratios like goals-against average and save percentage. Part of owning goalies is understanding your league's scoring system and targeting goalies that fit the stats that count. Andersen has worked out well in my league the past few seasons because he has high win and save totals from the number of games he plays, while this league does not count goals-against average and save percentage (only subtracting goals allowed).
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If you have a draft today or just before the season starts, good luck to you! You can still purchase a Fantasy Guide before it starts if you haven't already. I do recommend giving yourself ample time to familiarize yourself the guide so that you can use it to your advantage, and also to take care of technical issues like ensuring you can find the file (the Downloads section on this website) and resetting your Dobber Sports password in case you've forgotten it.
For more fantasy hockey discussion, or to reach out to me, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding