Every Sunday, we’ll share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Cam Robinson, and Dobber

1. I know a lot of you out there like Nikolaj Ehlers, and even more so if he starts getting that first-unit power-play time that has eluded him. Yet there’s nothing but red in the advanced stats (19.6 SH%, 14.1 5-on-5 SH%, 4.4 PTS/60, 1110 PDO). The good news for Ehlers is that Pierre-Luc Dubois has been more of a second-unit power-play guy for the Jets since joining them, while last season’s PPQB1 Neal Pionk is also now on the second unit. So the power-play points won’t completely dry up, even if his 5-on-5 scoring cools off. (feb13)

2. So, what’s going on with Mika Zibanejad? Thus far, Zibanejad has one goal on 39 shots, a cool 2.6 percent conversion rate. He has never been below 10 percent in a full season and shot at least 12 percent three years in a row coming into this season. Yes, there is positive regression coming. He won’t stay at 2.6 percent shooting.

But it is worth digging into what’s going on here. For that, I turned to HockeyViz and his shot locations. We saw that he had no problem getting to the net and a lot of his shots were from within 20 feet. We know scoring rates go up as we get closer to the net, so this all makes sense. That last season led to a career-best in goals is not surprising.

What’s going on this year? Glad you asked. There is a wild, wild change in pattern. He went from almost exclusively shooting from the slot to almost exclusively shooting from beyond the tops of the circles. There is a stark difference in shooting 20 feet away from the slot and 40-45 feet away from the circle.

So when I say that Zibanejad has positive regression to come, he does. He won’t shoot 2.6 percent. But will he shoot nearly 20 percent if this is where he’s taking his EV shots? I very much doubt it. He is not Patrik Laine or Alex Ovechkin. His offensive impacts, so far this season, are the worst of his career. Not only is he shooting from far away, but they’re not even driving a lot of shots. It really is a bad combination.

I would be remiss if I didn’t mention Zibanejad had COVID in the offseason.

Will he turn it around? Yes. He won’t post five goals and 15 points this year. But will he be anywhere close to the player he was last year? I think we have a lot of reasons to doubt that. For that reason, buying low on him in fantasy really needs some calculus. If you think he’s scoring 25 goals in the next 42 games or whatever, you may be in for some disappointment. (feb12)

3. We should probably note that Conor Garland has four shots per game – 52 in 14 – and has 14 points in 14 games on the year. That is absurd production for about 95 percent of the league, let alone a guy with no draft pedigree, not even two full seasons in the NHL, and in one of the worst environments, historically speaking, for offence. It has just been magnificent.

This is where I need to rain on peoples’ parades a bit. Last year, fewer than 20 percent of all regular forwards had an on-ice shooting percentage of at least 10 percent, and most came from high-scoring teams. The rare exceptions were guys like Jack Eichel and Jakob Silfverberg, and they were much closer to 10 percent than to 11. All this is to say I’m skeptical Garland can stay at 11.5%, but the Coyotes are playing extremely well offensively, so this isn’t entirely a mirage. As long as Arizona keeps playing as well as they are, there isn’t reason to suspect a huge decline. I would keep holding Garland until his line starts faltering, if that happens. (feb11)

4. Let’s talk about Jakob Chychrun for a moment. The 22-year-old has been playing the best hockey of his young career. His 11 points in 14 games put him on pace to demolish his previous career-high of…26 points.

Now, it’s easy to look at the lineup and say, “Well OEL is out so Chychrun is poaching that PP time and it’ll soon go away." (Ed. note: OEL is now back, having returned to the lineup on Friday). However, The former OHL standout was seeing 56 percent of the team’s PP opportunities even before Ekman-Larsson went down with an injury on January 16th. So, if we’re being honest, the production appears to be at least somewhat sustainable.

Through these 14 games, Chychrun has been seeing the time of minutes that often lead to production. An impressive 61.3% of his starts have been in the offensive zone – a massive leap from last season’s 47.6. He’s seeing 60 seconds of additional power-play time per game over last season. He’s seeing less PK time. Furthermore, the left-shot defender is shooting the puck a bit more and seeing his conversion up a tad but nothing demonstrative. 

I’m certainly not expecting a 68-point pace from here on out, but Chychrun has a history of producing points as a junior player. Early on, he was talked about as a potential top selection in his class. The numbers look good, there is pedigree. We could be looking at a breakout. (feb10)

5. Ducks' Max Comtois now has three goals and four points over his last four games. He seems to show a great scoring touch around the net and doesn’t seem shy about getting there. He’s been providing about two shots and two hits per game based on his totals so far. He’s also been helping Rickard Rakell get going after a sluggish start, as Rakell has three assists in his last four games. The Ducks don’t play again until next week, so I’ll add Comtois to my watch list for the time being. (feb13)

6. What has happened to Erik Karlsson is just so damn sad. The 30-year-old is a shell of his former self these days. Just four assists in 13 games and defensively he’s been a trainwreck.

The Sharks are on the hook for SIX more seasons after this one at a bloated 11.5M cap hit. I just can’t imagine a scenario where this ends up going well. I’ll be taking bets on how long before he suddenly lands on LTIR and his hit is magically absolved from the books.

But if we’re being optimistic, at least we can look at his luck-based metrics and deduce that he’s been hitting on some pretty poor juju. His shooting percentage is zero. His IPP – on the PP and in all-situation is just 25%. He’s only dipped below 50 percent in either category once in his career. The numbers say he’s due for a bounceback at some point, but the Sharks are dreadful and it’s difficult to imagine that bounce will be all that high.

I used to refer to EK as The White Whale, the rare defender who could propel your fantasy team better than almost every forward. My how the mighty have fallen. (feb10)

7. Dallas rookie netminder Jake Oettinger has been looking more and more comfortable in the crease as the games have worn on.

I was championing Oettinger in the offseason as a potential starter thief. Ben Bishop is old and out with a nasty injury for the long haul. Coming back with a new knee at 34 will be no easy feat. Anton Khudobin is also 34 and his only starter period was in last season's playoffs. He's ripe for an injury or a cold spell.

Oettinger, just 22 years old, has the first-round pedigree and the skills to back it up. He's clearly the goalie of the future, and if he can keep stopping pucks at a high rate, that future could be here a lot sooner than originally expected. (feb10)

8. There is at least one thing going right in Columbus though and that’s Jack Roslovic. The sweetener in the Patrik Laine-Pierre-Luc Dubois deal has been anything but a sweetener early on. He’s seeing top line and top power-play deployment and has been making the most of it. He’s cashed in his last six contests as a Blue Jacket to the tune of eight points.

Call me crazy, but I actually believe Roslovic can sustain somewhere near this level of production for a while. He has very little competition for his spot in the lineup, he’s a local kid, and apparently, Torts is keen on him. I’m just mad I didn’t take a flyer on him before he was snapped up off of the wire. (feb10)

9. We all expected Chicago to be bad once Jonathan Toews and Kirby Dach were announced out for the year and while they’re certainly not terrible, they’re definitely not a powerhouse in their division. All the same, Alex DeBrincat has 16 points in 12 games this year.

The young winger has played about two-thirds of his 5-on-5 ice time with Patrick Kane, so at least for now he’s lining up with one of the top offensive threats in hockey and averaging almost 20 minutes. Small samples abound, but if he’s going to play 20 minutes a night at 5-on-5 and on the PP with Kane, there is a lot of upside here.

Even if there is some regression coming through, say, on-ice shooting percentage, there are positive signs elsewhere that could balance out that negative production. In other words, he’s not a guy I would “sell high” on right now. There is a reasonable chance this is, roughly, his production level for the season. (feb9)

10. What a great start to the season for young Vegas defenceman Nicolas Hague. He looks like the guy prospect fantasy owners were hoping he could be. He is transitioning the puck and jumping into the play, but not with reckless abandon. He is exactly what they need on the third pair now that Alex Pietrangelo is back. The pairing of Hague-Zach Whitecloud has been beyond excellent to start the season and whether they’re the second or third pair, they should be sticking together. They seem to complement each other very well. (feb9)

11. Part of what has pushed Anthony Mantha out of the lineup last week is the play of 22-year-old rookie Givani Smith, who is making it difficult to keep out of the lineup. Smith has played with Filip Zadina and Dylan Larkin and with Bobby Ryan and Robby Fabbri. Either way, he already offers value in Hits and PIM – but with these linemates he can also offer some points. (feb8)

12. Vincent Trocheck has four multi-point efforts in 11 games thus far this season. I admittedly had him written off. Last year, when I thought he would bounce back he showed zero signs of doing so. I figured that the injuries had caught up to him and eroded his skills. But with 12 points in 11 games, something we haven’t seen from him in nearly three years, it looks like he’s back.

Note that six of Trocheck’s points have come on the power play, which is an unsustainable rate. Consider him back to being a 60-point player – just not the 80-point player he’s showing right now. (feb8)

13. The Alex Ovechkin line continues to dominate. In fact, I think right now they are better than ever. Not because Ovechkin has improved. Actually, Ovechkin and Nicklas Backstrom are finally declining just a little (emphasis on little). No, it’s actually because Tom Wilson is peaking.

The 6-4, 220-pound power forward finally came into his own late in 2017-18 and into the playoffs. In the Fantasy Guide of 2018 I strongly pushed that a breakout was on the way and he delivered. Were it not for a suspension that year he would have topped 50 points. Then last year a pandemic stopped him from crossing that threshold. Now he’s taking that production a little further. He’s 26 years old and that’s getting close to the sweet spot for big players. With a shortened season. I think he can stay pretty close to that point-per-game mark. Perhaps he’ll hit that 50-point threshold after all – and in just 56 games! (feb8)

14. Erik Gustafsson's (0-7-7 in 11 games) production is up significantly over last season thanks to a bit of puck luck (5on5 S% at 15.2). One thing I’ve noticed is that earlier on he was paired up on the Flyers' power play with another defenseman, but lately he’s been on the power play as the lone D. I noted here last year that Gustafsson doesn’t do well in a three-forwards/two-defensemen PP unit. He’s best when he’s solo. So keep an eye on the situation. (feb8)

15. Still with the Flyers, Scott Laughton‘s has nine points in 13 games this year. The checking-line center has been sneakily increasing his fantasy value year over year, posting a points-per-game average of 0.25, 0.39, 0.55 and now 0.69. I don’t think he maintains the latter pace, but he will exceed last year’s 0.55. And he’s doing it without PP time and just 15 minutes of ice time each game. He’s starting to have fantasy appeal in more and more leagues. (feb8)

16. The injury-depleted Penguins defense welcomed Kris Letang and Mike Matheson back into the lineup last week.

You’d think that Pierre-Olivier Joseph might be affected with the returns of these more experienced d-men, yet Joseph scored his first NHL goal while logging 22 minutes. With five points in eight games and regular minutes that include power-play minutes, Joseph appears to be here to stay.

Keeper leagues should be all over him as a Letang replacement down the road, even though the Penguins might be tearing it down by the time Joseph reaches his prime. (feb7)

17. It feels like some sort of shakeup is going to happen in Vancouver soon, whether that be in the form of a trade or dismissing Travis Green and/or Jim Benning. If you ask most Canucks’ fans, their much-preferred choice is the GM for the way the roster has been constructed with all the bad contracts in the bottom 6. Paying someone to not work at a time when there are no fans might delay something big from happening, though. (feb7)

18. Someone in one of my leagues put Auston Matthews on his trade block last week. As much as Matthews is a stud, it’s difficult to top what he has already accomplished so far. Matthews is already up to 11 goals in 14 games. The DobberHockey Experts Panel must have been on to something when they nearly unanimously projected him as the Rocket Richard winner. Maybe he’ll even make a run at 50 goals… in 55 games.

19. It seems like every time I watch a Habs game, Josh Anderson scores a goal. I might actually be on to something, as he has scored five goals over his past seven games. Nine goals in 15 games is quite the turnaround for a guy who scored just one in 26 games last season.

I get it that he wasn’t quite right because of injury, but this season it seems like everything has gone right. A 22.5 SH% and 3.0 PTS/60 all scream regression, although a 9.8 5-on-5 SH% is more normal. Unless you’re in a bangers league and drafted him for his hits (team-leading 42), he’s also a potential sell-high candidate, although maybe not to the same degree as Tyler Toffoli. Regarding the Habs in general, their offense has already cooled off significantly recently, having scored just six goals over their last four games. (feb13)

20. Jeff Petry is one of the most valuable defenseman in fantasy leagues thus far. He's tied with Darnell Nurse for the league lead in goals for defensemen (6) and also tied for second in points (15) with Victor Hedman. His plus-13 is also among the league leaders.

Because of his age (33) and the presence of Shea Weber, Petry doesn’t get the respect that he deserves, as his ADP was just outside the top 100 in Yahoo leagues. The goal scoring likely won’t continue at this pace, but Petry has already solidified himself as a 10+ goal, 40+ point, 150+ shot and 160+ hit defenseman the last three seasons. The improvements the Habs made this offseason are only adding to these totals. (feb7)

21. Still with the Habs, Jake Allen has given the team quality backup goaltending. He now has four wins and four quality starts in his six games. Look him up if you need a spot starter, although many fantasy leagues are already on to him. (feb7)

Have a good week, folks – be safe!!

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