21 Fantasy Hockey Rambles

Dobber Sports

2021-03-14

Every Sunday, we’ll share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, and Dobber

1. Has there been one new player that has energized a team more than Kirill Kaprizov has with the Wild? Kaprizov recorded his first career hat trick on Friday against the Coyotes, leading the Wild to yet another win. In fact, he stuffed a few other categories, posting a plus-4 ranking to go with eight shots on goal. He’s been worth the wait if you got on board well before he left the KHL.

BTW: It was Adin Hill who started in that game for the Yotes, allowing three goals on 31 shots. With Darcy Kuemper “week to week”, Hill could sneak into the goaltending situation. I’ve had faith in Antti Raanta in past seasons, but I’ve seen him suffer through additional injury stoppages this season to go with a very high (3.53) goals-against average. With Raanta a perpetual Band-Aid Boy, Hill could receive a real opportunity after some short stints the past two seasons. (mar13)

2. What about some trade targets? Here are three I mention in our just-released Midseason Guide:

  • Kyle Palmieri: This guy could slide onto almost any playoff team’s second line and be a great two-way winger for them. He’s shooting less than half (7.3) his rate last year (16.1) and much lower than his three year-average (13.3) and yet would still push past 15 goals in an 82-game season. If he sits at 11 percent shooting, he has a couple more goals and is one pace for nearly 25 again. This guy can score 25 in his sleep and would make a great playoff asset. A team like Boston makes a lot of sense here. (mar12)
  • Bobby Ryan: Though not a great season with 13 points in 25 games, we have to remember who he’s playing for, and the fact he’d push for 20 goals on this roster is nothing short of a miracle. His AAV is $1M so his pro-rated hit is low enough for over half the league to acquire without having to move money out. That makes him desirable, and he should draw a lot of interest as a depth scorer on a playoff team. I am not sure that would boost his value for the final month of the season if he’s getting secondary PP minutes and falls to 14 minutes a night. (mar12)
  • Mikael Granlund: The UFA isn’t having a great year in Nashville points-wise, but almost no one is outside of Filip Forsberg anyway. He can play all three forward positions and is defensively responsible, and those factors should make him a target for a playoff team. Even if he sees a loss in ice time, it’ll be hard to be worse than 10 points in 22 games in a new locale, so keep him on the radar. (mar12)

3. Nikita Kucherov has started skating this week and is targeting a return in time for the playoffs. This is kind of what I thought would happen with Kucherov all along. They know they can win a Stanley Cup without an elite scorer, having been without Steven Stamkos for almost all of the bubble playoff run. Putting Kucherov on LTIR was an out-of-the-box solution to their cap problems, which they won’t have to worry about since there’s no salary cap in the playoffs.

Without Kucherov, the Bolts still had great odds to make the Central Division playoffs and even win the division, which holds true given their current place in the standings. With a well-rested Kucherov, the Bolts are in a great spot to repeat as Stanley Cup champions. Yes, Kucherov would be a high playoff pool pick as well. (mar13)

4. Anders Lee is expected to be out indefinitely with a lower-body injury from Thursday’s game. This wasn’t welcome news for his fantasy owners, as Lee recorded nine points over his last ten games and was overall having a nice season (12 goals and 19 points in 27 games).

Lee has been a solid multicategory contributor in the past, and this season has been no different. Even under a “defensive Barry Trotz” system, Lee has taken 3.0 SOG/GP, his highest total since his rookie season of 2013-14. He’s also a plus-11, which is helped by playing for an Islanders team that is at the top of a very competitive East Division. (mar13)

5. In a trade that doesn’t have significant immediate fantasy implications, the Leafs have acquired goalie Veini Vehvilainen from the Blue Jackets for defenseman Mikko Lehtonen. It’s a cross-border trade, so both players will need to complete the necessary quarantine period.

The Leafs have been chasing goaltending depth all season, so could there be something wrong with Jack Campbell beyond day-to-day? Vehvilainen was backing up Joonas Korpisalo while Elvis Merzlikins was injured. With the Leafs, he is no higher than a third goalie under ideal circumstances and probably a fourth goalie with Michael Hutchinson putting up decent numbers. With Campbell injured, he’s likely the #3 at the moment.

It’s fair to say Lehtonen didn’t get much of a shot with the Leafs, even though he had the second-highest power-play time (1:26 PPTOI, 27.4 %PP) among Leafs defenders in his nine games. He is expected to join the Blue Jackets taxi squad once he clears quarantine. John Tortorella doesn’t seem too happy with his defense (along with a lot of other things concerning the Blue Jackets), so it’s worth it for them to give Lehtonen a try. (mar13)

6. I see a Sharks team that is floundering and largely moving further and further from a playoff spot as Ryan Merkley gets more seasoning in the AHL. This was a defenceman with more than a point per game in the OHL in his draft year. Do I know if he’s ready? I have no idea. But he can’t really hurt a Sharks team that has the worst goal differential in their division and are seven points out of a playoff spot. (mar11)

7. With Alex Pietrangelo out indefinitely with a lower-body injury, Dylan Coghlan appears to be more than just a one-off. Coghlan followed up an out-of-nowhere hat trick on Wednesday with an assist on Friday. He’s also worth mentioning because he received second-unit power-play time. The Vegas PP2 features stronger options than that of most teams, so Coghlan might be worth an add in deeper leagues.  (mar13)

8. Neil Pionk is chugging along very nicely right now at a 47-point pace for 56 games. He’s only at 199 career games and could be a regular 60-point defenceman for a few years through his prime. Pionk’s even strength scoring is up and his power-play numbers are down. There are a few extra assists in there, but under the hood things don’t look too bad. (mar10)

9. On the flip side of the Patrik Laine (and Jack Roslovic) vs. Pierre-Luc Dubois deal, the Winnipeg Jets also seem to be under-using their new player, as Dubois is seeing only about 16 minutes per game with his new team. He’s shooting more and getting more power-play time, though, so this might be the right time to look to buy-in before he really gets comfortable. (mar10)

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GET IT NOW!!

The Midseason Guide is now available for download! You’ll find the usual team-by-team breakdowns and projections, which now also include a spreadsheet for easy comparisons and calculations for your adds, drops, and trades. You’ll also find a scheduling breakdown for the stretch run, as well as prospect information if you’re planning for next season. If you haven’t purchased yours, you can get it right here.

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10. I don’t think there’s been a more surprising player to me this year than Joel Eriksson Ek. Not that I expected him to be a bad player; I just never expected him to be this good.

He has just 10-5-15 points in 25 games because of a low assist total, and that will keep him from any kind of Hart conversation. But he could very well be in line for some Selke love, even a Selke win. He has been phenomenal, and I never saw this kind of offensive upside coming from him. He is just a wonderful hockey player.

I have other observations, but I’ll keep them to myself for now; some of them are a bit too far out there. But I do think there are going to be lots of interesting takeaways from a season such as this. Just don’t get fooled by some of the randomness and don’t forget it’s all intra-divisional play. Comparisons across divisions and across the league can be a bit wonky. (mar11)

11. One thing I will say is there are often concerns about goalies falling flat in their debut season, even if Kaapo Kahkonen did have NHL games before this year, and those concerns are gone. At the least, he looks like a competent NHL goalie and that’s another step in the right direction. (mar9)

12. Still with the Wild, it appears that Marcus Johansson is on the verge of returning, while Ryan Hartman was back in uniform two days ago. They aren’t huge names for the Wild but this team doesn’t have a lot of depth when injuries hit, so getting these guys back really helps fill out the lineup. Hartman had been off to a nice start this year with three goals and nine points in 19 games playing largely in the bottom-6. It really seems as if he’s rejuvenated his career. (mar9)

13. It might be a small thing, but Kirby Dach is travelling and skating with the Blackhawks on their current road trip. He isn’t playing, but he is slowly being reintegrated with the team and that is a good step forward. Perhaps he can come back sometime in April and that would get him ready for a potential postseason run. (mar9)

14. In non-cap leagues, P.K. Subban is actually worth owning right now. He’s putting up a point every other game despite his underlying percentages showing that he may have deserved a couple more, with some decent peripherals to boot. However, like with the Buffalo Sabres, be careful paying too much because the Devils don’t look like they’re going to be getting a lot better over the remaining 30 games. (mar8)

15. T.J. Oshie continues his hot start to the season and he’s an underappreciated contributor in the peripheral categories, as well. At 34 years old, he’s the kind of guy you won’t get a fair return for if you try to shop him, but you may be able to acquire him cheaper than most scorers of his skill. (mar8)

16. Grigori Denisenko should be getting more than eight minutes of ice time per night, and at least seeing some secondary power-play time. Like with Tolvanen in Nashville though, the development curve may be slow, but when they start to figure it out and get better deployment, it happens fast. Better to be a little too early buying in than too late. (mar8)

17. Ilya Sorokin is getting a lot more comfortable on North American ice. The Islanders’ system makes things a lot easier on him, but even on his own he’s an excellent goalie. He’s a top-tier asset in dynasty leagues, but even his 41% ownership in Yahoo (last week) should be much higher. With the Islanders leading the East Division, we may see a closer to even split of the goalies down the stretch run to make sure Semyon Varlamov is fresh for a deep playoff run. (mar8)

18. Much of the Canucks’ recent success has to do with Thatcher Demko. He has now posted quality starts in six of his last seven games. Over that stretch, he also has a 5-2-0 record to go with a 1.70 GAA and .950 SV%. As well, his season 7.32 GSAA places him in the top 10 in that category.  If you haven’t been paying much attention to the Canucks, Demko has emerged as the clear starter over Braden Holtby. He’s also showing signs that his near-perfect three games in the playoff bubble against Vegas wasn’t a fluke. (mar7)

19. Remember Noel Acciari‘s amazing run from last season, which included back-to-back hat tricks? Well, he’s at it again. Acciari scored another hat trick on Saturday, which probably helped no one in fantasy land. That’s because the goals were his first three of the season. (mar7)

20. Matt Duchene will miss the next 2-4 weeks with a lower-body injury. Duchene was one of numerous Preds who have been sputtering this season with just eight points (3 G, 5 A) in 23 games. Something tells me that his seven-year, $56 million contract signed on July 1, 2019, isn’t going to age well. It’s not like the Preds will have an easy time trading that contract.

The Predators appear unlikely to make the playoffs this season, so Filip Forsberg and Mattias Ekholm trades are distinct possibilities. I’d also be surprised if John Hynes is still the coach next season, as I’ve been told numerous times on my Twitter timeline whenever I bring up someone on the Preds. (mar7)

21. Rem Pitlick made his season debut, filling in for Duchene on the second line. He has some middle-six upside down the line, but it won’t be this year and it likely won’t come next season either. The youngster to own on the Predators is Eeli Tolvanen, who is looking much better and really starting to show how well he can pick corners. (mar8)

Have a good week, folks be safe!!

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 27 - 19:12 DET vs TOR
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Dec 27 - 20:12 DAL vs MIN
Dec 27 - 20:12 STL vs NSH
Dec 27 - 21:12 UTA vs COL
Dec 27 - 22:12 S.J vs VGK

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
KIRILL MARCHENKO CBJ
DYLAN HOLLOWAY STL
DMITRI VORONKOV CBJ
LUKE HUGHES N.J
MATT CORONATO CGY

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
LUKAS DOSTAL ANA
JET GREAVES CBJ
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
LOGAN THOMPSON WSH
JOHN GIBSON ANA

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency N.J Players
17.8 DAWSON MERCER ERIK HAULA PAUL COTTER
17.3 STEFAN NOESEN TIMO MEIER NICO HISCHIER
16.6 TOMAS TATAR JUSTIN DOWLING NATHAN BASTIAN

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