Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, and Grant Campbell (subbing for Dobber this week)

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1. It has been a wonderful run for the Tampa Bay Lightning franchise that spent most of the 2010s being elite but not able to get over the hump. This is truly one of the best franchise runs of the modern era and though they may lose a handful of guys in the offseason, most of this core is returning.

They will have to rebuild the depth as guys like Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow leave, plus whoever else in free agency and in necessary trades for cap purposes. But most of their top-6 and their entire top-4 are all signed for next year, plus Andrei Vasilevskiy. This is reminiscent of the Penguins teams of 5-6 years ago, where they just rebuilt their depth around their stars every year. With Tampa’s drafting/developing ability, they should be able to swing it.

 Oh, and Vasilevskiy took home the Conn Smythe. I thought it should have been Nikita Kucherov but this isn’t the fight to pick. (july8)

2. BTW: Josh Anderson is good, especially when he’s fired up. Anthony Cirelli is a clutch player, Patrick Maroon wins cups, Andrei Vasilevskiy and Carey Price have been absolutely lights-out in stretches, and Alexander Romanov is going to be an excellent offensive defenseman for the Canadiens. Did I miss anything? Oh yeah, Mathieu Joseph needs more ice time. (july7)

3. If you’re looking for a hint at who Buffalo goes with at first overall during the NHL Draft, I have heard a lot of little rumblings that William Eklund is a very real possibility. It also sounds like most of the 2021 class is expecting to play at least one more season wherever they are (Europe, NCAA, etc). Something to keep in mind if you're hoping for any kind of immediate impact from this class. There might not be much at all to pick from.

If you want the best hints at who those players might be though, you need to get yourself the 15^th edition of the Fantasy Prospects Report. It is available now for download! (july7)

19. The Seattle Kraken Expansion Draft is fast approaching (July 21), as is the NHL Entry Draft (July 23 and 24), so there isn’t much time after this season to get ready for these events and Free Agency which starts July 28 this year.

Roughly, only a few teams have made any roster moves that affect plans moving forward with Edmonton unsurprisingly re-signing Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Joel Eriksson Ek re-signing in Minnesota. Both deals were for eight years but at seemingly reduced AAVs with Nugent Hopkins at $5.125 million and Eriksson Ek at $5.25 million.

Viktor Arvidsson was dealt to Los Angeles with a second and third round draft pick going back to Nashville. Arvidsson has three years left on his contract at $4.25 million AAV so this could be a good addition for the Kings for the next few seasons. Everything else this past week in respect to Duncan Keith and the latest for Jack Eichel is just a rumor at this point, but things will certainly heat up now that the Finals are over. (july5)

4. There were a few minor signings, too. Dominic Toninato (C – WPG), Scott Wedgewood (G – NJ), and Cristian Wolanin (D – LA) all took two-way deals to put pen to paper and guarantee that they’re under contract next season. The two-way deal means that they make less in the AHL than they do in the NHL (it has nothing to do with waiver status) and is usually a good sign of whether a player is expected to make, or at least fight for a spot in the opening night lineup. Keep an eye on those types of signings, and when you see the one-way deals (like in year two of Toninato’s deal) then you might want to dive a little deeper and see if there’s anything there. This is one way that you can dig up the Yanni Gourdes and Daniel Sprongs before anyone else does. (july7)

5. With the expansion selections coming up, and everyone looking at the selection lists and trying to figure out who will thrive in a new Seattle lineup, it is also necessary to consider the other half of that equation. Every team is losing some kind of player, and that means there will be NHL roster spots, and in some cases even top power play spots that open up. Back in 2017-18 we saw career highs from Brayden Schenn, Vincent Trocheck, Jason Zucker, and Matt Murray, plus a huge rebound year from Eric Staal. Those teams lost David Perron, Reilly Smith, Jonathan Marchessault, Erik Haula, and Marc-Andre Fleury.

Easier said than done to try and pick these guys out after the expansion draft, let alone before, but I’m going to try. There’s a necessary recipe here that all of these teams had. All were competitive teams that had a bit of an issue protecting everyone that they wanted to, in addition to having skilled players down in the lineup that were ready to step up but wouldn’t have gotten the same opportunity without their team losing a player or two in the expansion draft. There are a few obvious parallels to teams this time around, so let’s go through a few below, Tampa Bay, Philly and Carolina: (july7)

6. Tampa Bay. To get the obvious one out of the way, the best thing Tampa could do for both themselves and Seattle would be to offer up Tyler Johnson as the selection, with a pick and one of Yanni Gourde or Alex Killorn as a sweetener. This would allow for the Lightning to fit everyone under the salary cap next year, possibly also including pending UFA Barclay Goodrow and Blake Coleman. It would also free up two spots up the lineup for Alex Barre-Boulet, and Mathieu Joseph. Both of those players are probably worth stashing now in deeper leagues if you can. (july7)

7. Philadelphia. The Flyers have such a deep forward core to go along with an enviably stocked cupboard of prospects, that it is tough to get a read on who will be proteted after the obvious first few names. The Flyers could be losing one of Jakub Voracek, James van Reimsdyk, Nolan Patrick, or Oskar Lindblom. The latter two are the ones to look out for if not selected, as they might finally be able to soak up a little more time with the man-advantage. They’re worth keeping an eye on over the next few weeks, though it’s possible they may get beat out by the internal growth of Morgan Frost, Joel Farabee (yes I know he was in the top-six already but he deserves more than 16 minutes per game), and others. (july7)

8. Carolina. The current home of 2017-18 standout Vincent Trocheck may see another name that breaks out due to a surge in power play opportunities, though this one isn’t just a Seattle ripple. The Hurricanes appear to be ready to let Dougie Hamilton test free agency, and they could also lose one of their defensemen in the Seattle draft (Brady Skjei was on my list back in April). This would set up Jake Bean to be the primary beneficiary, taking over point duties on a very skilled power play. (july7)

9. Michael Clifford touched on him not long ago, and he mentioned how much Tyler Bertuzzi can contribute across the board while likely being undervalued in drafts this fall due to only playing 11 games. On top of that, Bertuzzi was the best power-play producer by a mile in Detroit, putting up 1.4 points per 60 minutes with the man advantage. The only other player above 0.6 was Joe Veleno, who only played five games.

Bertuzzi is an excellent net-front and down-low presence for the Wings, giving them a very different skillset to pair up with the likes of Jakub Vrana, Dylan Larkin, and the rest. He is going to be a key to the production for the entire unit, which went on a historically bad run without him in the lineup last season. (july7)

10. There are two tales here. I’ll get to the numbers in a minute, but as someone who watched a lot of Nashville games this season, Eeli Tolvanen was the key to the power play. The Predators’ powerplay has had issues for multiple seasons now, and borders on anemic for long stretches. However, when Tolvanen was out with the man advantage, the Predators all looked dangerous. He has the kind of dynamic skill that the predators have lacked since Paul Kariya left. Filip Forsberg is a great player, and especially dangerous on the rush, but his skills aren’t optimized in a static power-play environment. Tolvanen is going to be the key to the Predators’ offense moving forward, and their power play should start to run through him. His numbers are only going to go up from here.

The numbers bear out that Tolvanen was the most dangerous player at 5on4 for the Predators last season, with a team-high 1.2 power play points per 60 minutes. Unfortunately, John Hynes took a little while to get comfortable with him, and it wasn’t until the middle-half of the season that Tolvanen really started lighting it up. A top-six role and more minutes overall will be important to keep the numbers up, but the power-play production is going to be where Tolvanen really shines in fantasy (the hit rates don’t hurt his case either). Forsberg saw 40 seconds more of power play ice time per game than Tolvanen. If that gets bumped up for the young winger, then his overall numbers are going to skyrocket.

No Predators forward has notched 25 power play points since Kariya in 2006-07, but I think Tolvanen tops that with ease and hits 30 power-play points next season (assuming a full 82 games). (july7)

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11. What is Minnesota’s center depth chart?

Seven months ago, some people had Marco Rossi pencilled in as the 1C for Minnesota. I wasn’t sure about that, and we obviously never saw what the result would be due to his COVID issues. That led to Joel Eriksson-Ek being their 1C kind of by default, though that’s just because he ended up with 17 minutes a game of TOI. There were times Victor Rask or Nick Bonino were de-facto top-line centres.

The fact that Eriksson Ek didn’t play 19-20 minutes a night on a team so bereft of center talent would seem do indicate that Rossi does have a chance at being the 1C in October. My problem with this is that with all the centres playing roughly 14-17 minutes a night, they want to spread the ice time around. No forward played more than Kaprizov at 18:18 a night. It would seem foolish to assume that Rossi will just step into the NHL, on this team, with the way they spread ice time, and plays 18 minutes a night. I mean, maybe he does, as Kaprizov just did that. But Rossi is years younger without the same pro experience.

For that reason, it seems very likely the team goes into the season with Eriksson Ek as the top-line centre. But that isn’t to say Rossi can’t have a great year playing 16 minutes a night with Kaprizov or Fiala. He certainly can. I am just not sure the ice time will be there to give us a massive first-year performance. (july6)

12. Should we jump on Alexis Lafrenière‘s inevitable ADP decline?

It really depends on the league, but there is a good chance that Lafrenière was drafted inside the top-150 picks in your leagues this year, or inside 12 rounds of a 12-teamer. His 21 points in 56 games certainly did not return value on that pick. It seems likely his ADP is much lower in September, so the question is: how far should we let him drop?

There are good signs here. He was earning over 15 minutes a night over his final 10 games of the season, compared to 13:36 over his first 46 games. Now, there’s a new coach in town, but that isn’t a big concern. As long as he keeps playing well, he shouldn’t be back down to 13 minutes a night.

The ice time will be a concern, though. It is hard seeing him play 18 minutes a night with both Artemi Panarin and Chris Kreider as left wingers. If I’m not mistaken, they did move Laffy to the right side at times, so that’s something at least. But if he’s truly third on the LW depth chart, high levels of TOI are an issue. There is also the power play. The good news is that both Laffy and Ryan Strome play relatively the same position, if on different PP units. Should the Rangers not bring back Strome, it opens up a PP1 role that the second-year player can step into.

Ice time and PP role may be a concern, but I’m not worried about his scoring. He paced for 18 goals in an 82-game season, doing so playing 13:53 a night. At the least, he was able to shoot largely from good scoring areas. Again, I am not worried about his scoring. We should also note that he posted 43 hits in 56 games. At 16 minutes a night, he could be near a hit per game. That will play in multi-cat leagues.

In all, I will probably be buying as long as Laffy in around pick-200 or later, and I think he will be. (july6)

13. Do we have any comfort in Juuse Saros as a full-time starter?

Funny how goalies work, right? In a lot of leagues I saw, both Pekka Rinne and Juuse Saros were taken outside the top-20 goalies, somewhat close to each other. Rinne was the starter for a while, then Saros took over and carried Nashville to the playoffs; after taking over basically full-time status in mid-March, Saros posted a .941 save percentage across 23 starts. That is absurd, really.

We need to remember that Saros has yet to have a bad season in the NHL. He has been above average by overall save percentage in every single season, and his overall save percentage over the last three years is top-10 in the league and tied with Tuukka Rask. He was in the top half of the league by high-danger save percentage, top-5 by WAR per 60 minutes, and top-10 by goals saved above expected. The worst we can say about Saros is that he’s probably a mid-pack starter. There is a good chance he’s truly among the top-10 or so.

But how comfortable are we in that assessment, and Nashville’s ability to be a good team in front of him?

We really do have to wait to see how this offseason shakes out because there could be significant movement in Nashville. I mean, there has been already with the Viktor Arvidsson trade. I also think this Nashville team is better than they’ve shown, though I don’t have a lot of confidence in the coaching staff.

I am never sure of goalies. That is just my nature and the nature of the position. But I wonder about Saros’s ADP and outlook among the fantasy community. I think he’s a darn good goaltender but I’m not sure about the team he’ll be playing behind. If he’s going anywhere outside the top-12 goalies, I will be tempted. What does the Dobber community say? Where do you all sit on Saros? Let us know in the comments. (july9)

14. Will Anthony Mantha be a monster in Washington?

Things could be weird in Washington next year. They traded Jakub Vrana for Mantha, which means Vrana’s shot creation is out of the lineup. T.J. Oshie is also likely to be gone in the expansion draft, so there really isn’t a whole lot left in the top-6 for wingers. Mantha is there, Ovechkin is a free agent, and Tom Wilson is good to be suspended for 20 percent of any given campaign.

Mantha is a wonderful player and can probably survive fantasy-wise without elite line mates. Something like Nicklas Backstrom and Daniel Sprong can probably get him to 25 goals and 55 points with huge shot totals. But that doesn’t really constitute a monster season.

Presumably, Alex Ovechkin will be returning so most of the band will be back together. One area where Washington can greatly help Mantha is power-play production. Even Oshie, who was never a focal point of their PP, averaged nearly 19 PPPs per 82 games over the last three years. Mantha was closer to 13 in his games. If he gets close to 60 points as he normally would, can the PP push him closer to 70, making him a true fantasy monster? I hope so.

We will have to wait and see what Washington does in the offseason, but I still have faith in Mantha being a big-time offensive performer. The only thing that can kill his value is if they do like they did with Vrana at times and moved him to the third line. I don’t see that happening here, so I think we can draft him with more confidence than we drafted Vrana in the past. (july9)

15. What is Josh Norris‘ ceiling for 2021?

Perhaps one of my favourite performers from this past season was Josh Norris. Sometimes, it’s just enjoyable watching a prospect work on his game, improve through the season, and be rewarded for it by the end. Do I like to see good things happen to people who work hard? You could say that.

Anyway, he really did improve, as he posted 12 points in 23 games to start the year and 23 points in 33 games to finish. He also added about a minute of TOI to be near the 17-minute mark over the final few months. He was skating on the top line with Brady Tkachuk and was getting top PP minutes as well. The line of Tkachuk-Norris-Batherson was excellent this year, particularly on a team that wasn’t as excellent. So, if we are to assume that line starts the season next year, and Norris is playing 17-18 minutes a night, what is the absolute tops we can expect from him?

One thing I want to get out of the way is I’m not sure about his goal scoring in this setup. He will have to defer a lot of shots to Tkachuk, and Batherson himself was at two shots per game in his first full season. If Batherson/Tkachuk are taking 6-7 shots each per game, it doesn’t leave a lot left over for Norris. It is one reason why I won’t extrapolate his 2021 scoring to next year. I have doubts he’ll step in to be a 25-goal scorer. Maybe 15-20 goals instead?

That isn’t to say he can’t rack up the points; he should get lots of assists from both Tkachuk and Batherson. He was also good for about 1.5 hits per game this year, which is a big boost for those in multi-cat leagues.

If all goes right this year for Norris, I think he can push for 70 points. But that is the upper limit and something I wouldn’t expect outright. To get there, he needs to be a constant fixture at the top of the lineup all year, and this team is young enough where that is uncertain. Norris does bring production across the board though, so keep him in mind when ADPs roll around. (july9)

16. Does Mark Giordano have one great fantasy season left?

It might seem like a lifetime ago but remember that it was Rasmus Andersson who was Calgary’s PP1QB early on in the season. There were some Noah Hanifin and Juuso Valimaki games as well, but it was mostly Andersson. Then, not long after Darryl Sutter took over, Giordano regained his top PP role, a role he carried to the end of the season. From the beginning of April through the end of the season, a span of 19 games, Giordano posted three goals, 10 points, 60 shots, 38 blocks, and 20 hits. Pace that out over a full season, we’re looking at double-digit goals, over 40 points, over 250 shots, over 160 blocks, and about 90 hits. Those are huge totals for a multi-cat defenseman.

The 2021-22 season is Giordano’s last on his current contract. He may only have one season left with Calgary. Can it be a great fantasy season?

It should be noted that, in general, Giordano has lost about two minutes of TOI per game over the last few seasons. Almost all of those minutes came from the power play and even strength, which is real bad production news. On the other hand, he was back up to 24 minutes a night under Sutter, and if that persists to next year, the ice time concerns are gone.

The biggest concern is Giordano’s forwards. Despite the shortened 56-game season, no Calgary forward reached 50 points or 20 goals. It is hard to put up 50- or 60-point seasons as a defenseman on a mid-pack scoring team unless you’re super elite offensively. We are talking guys like Roman Josi or Quinn Hughes (whom we’ll get to later). Other than that, defensemen need high-performing teams, and the Flames weren’t that.

When it comes down to it, I think Giordano, at 24 minutes a night and PP1, can be a top-12 multi-cat defenseman. The question, really, is whether his team can rebound to where they were a couple years ago to make that more of a reality than a hope. (july8)

17. Where should we be drafting Rasmus Dahlin?

It was the worst season of Dahlin’s young career, pacing for just 34 points per 82 games after pacing for 49 points per 82 games over his first two years. The big problem was even-strength scoring, as Buffalo was a distant last in goals per 60 minutes at 2.0. The next-closest team was Columbus at 2.2, meaning Buffalo was 10 percent worse than the next-worst team. That is a massive chasm at the bottom of the league, leaving little wonder as to why Dahlin didn’t pace for a lot of points.

This is a question that will have a more definitive answer in two months. The fate of Jack Eichel and whether he’s traded, or whether he’s simply healthy enough to play, is up in the air. That leaves a lot of uncertainty about whether this team will meaningfully improve offensively next year. They will also be in a division with Boston, Tampa Bay, Toronto, Florida, Montreal, and an improved Ottawa team. Even if Buffalo improves somewhat, how big is the impact given who they’re playing their bulk of their games against, when factoring in the Metro?

On top of the production concerns are the multi-cat concerns. He could probably put up in the neighbourhood of 125 hits, but has yet to crack 0.9 blocks per game in any season. He has also been hovering around two shots per game, and if the team doesn’t improve offensively, it’s doubtful that number climbs much.

I guess my question is this: how valuable is a defenseman with seven goals, 35 points, 120 hits, 65 blocks, and 170 shots? Valuable enough to be drafted somewhat highly, but that’s nowhere near the upper-echelon of defensemen. This could easily be a situation where the player provides more value to the team in real life than he does to his managers in the fantasy game. (july8)

18. The Wild signed Nick Bjugstad to a one-year, $900k extension. He only has 43 points in his last 108 NHL games so he needs to re-establish himself to earn a longer contract at this point. He may not be very relevant in the fantasy game playing under 12 minutes a night, either. 

19. An interesting name from recent Montreal Canadiens history is now an unrestricted free agent in Charles Hudon.

Hudon was a player I thought could bring some fantasy relevance every year. He generally has high shot rates – basically the same shot attempt rate as John Tavares from 2017-20 – and put up 242 hits in 125 regular season NHL games despite playing just 13 minutes a night. I thought there was a genuine chance of him putting up 200-shot/100-hit seasons, which he’s capable of with enough ice time. Of course, none of that worked out and he’s spent more time in the AHL than the NHL the last few years.

On top of the shot rate and the physicality, he’s at least passable defensively. I think there’s something here, and that’s backed up by his 54 goals in 102 AHL games over the last two years. Maybe he just ends up a Quad-A player who is too good for the AHL but can’t translate that talent to the NHL. It happens sometimes. I do think a team takes a chance on him, though, and he’s worth keeping an eye on. Even in a depth role, he can be valuable because of the hits he brings. But it is an uphill climb for him from here on out.

20. Jack Hughes made some modest gains in his sophomore season. In fact, it looked like he was poised to become a breakout candidate early in the season, as he raced ahead to six points in his first three games. He also finished strong with 15 points in his last 21 games. But in between he recorded just 10 points over 31 games. So like with many young players (remember that he just turned 20), there’s a lack of consistency.

In just his second season, Hughes led all Devils forwards in both total ice time per game (19:04) and power-play ice time per game (2:58). Whenever I watched the Devils, Hughes seemed to display his strong puck possession skills, which showed with a 55.1 CF%. You’d think he’d finish first on the Devils in scoring, but instead it was Pavel Zacha (50 GP, 35 PTS). Hughes finished second with 31 points. No, those aren’t huge totals, as the Devils finished in the bottom third in team scoring (2.59 GF/GP).

Hughes has major upside, but how much of a step forward he can take may depend on what linemates he has next season. It seems unlikely that the rebuilding Devils make a huge splash in free agency or the free agent market, so it might be another season of Janne Kuokkanen and Yegor Sharangovich. Not that they aren’t NHL players, but most teams could potentially surround Hughes with better options. Long term, goal-scorer Alexander Holtz might help Hughes rack up the assists, but it would be premature to think that Hughes will tear up the league next season. Be patient with him in a keeper format, though. (july4)

21. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins made the headlines last week after signing his eight-year, $41 million contract to stay in Edmonton. Assuming he is not bought out before the contract expires, Nuge will be 36 years old when the contract expires. At that time, Connor McDavid will be 32 and Leon Draisaitl will be 33. All three are signed for the next four seasons, when Draisaitl’s contract expires. With just over $26 million invested in the three players, the Oilers appear to have their core set for a while.

The $5 million cap hit seems like a very reasonable number for Nugent-Hopkins. Although his point production fell to a 55-point pace from a 77-point pace in 2019-20, Nuge has a fairly high point floor. Over the last three seasons, he has contributed a minimum of 20 power-play points on the Oilers first-unit power play. In fact, over those past three seasons, Nugent-Hopkins is tied for 16^th with 70 power-play points, ahead of the likes of Sidney Crosby, Johnny Gaudreau and Mika Zibanejad. Not surprisingly, McDavid and Draisaitl are first and second in this category.

Something that also helps Nugent-Hopkins’ value from an even-strength perspective is that he is usually (but not always) on a line with either McDavid or Draisaitl. That doesn’t necessarily translate to success for every player, as evidenced by the Oilers’ lack of scoring depth. However, Nugent-Hopkins has a three-year average of 0.83 points per game, which averages out to 68 points over a full season. It’s probably better for the Oilers to invest their cap space in a known commodity such as Nugent-Hopkins who has given a bit of a hometown discount as opposed to potentially overpaying for a player on the free agent market that may or may not be a fit. (july4)

Have a good week, folks – be safe!!

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