Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, and Dobber

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1. Drake Batherson is a dual threat. Last year, his primary shot assist rate and personal shot rate put him in the same company as names like Alex Tuch and Pavel Buchnevich. As a rookie, those aren’t bad names to be comparable to in terms of playmaking and shooting. It is only one shortened rookie season, but like Josh Norris, it seems to be a continuation of the play he showed in the minor leagues. This could be confirmation bias in a way, but I do think they’re just two good offensive players that are getting better and better with each passing month. For a deep dive, follow the link… (sep7)

2. Filip Chytil role. @ColinSNewsday: GM Chris Drury talking to reporters today, says Chytil and Barron are viewed as centers coming into training camp.

That is both good and bad news for Chytil. The good news is that he’ll get first crack at the 3C role, something that the Rangers need desperately for him to fill competently. The bad news is that excludes him from ever playing with guys like Zibanejad and Panarin at even strength, and that means not nearly as much upside as someone like Lafrenière. This probably has more impact in the real game than it does in the fantasy game. (sep10)

3. Rick Roos talked about Jared McCann in his column yesterday. He dropped a poll to see how many players who played around a 60-point pace last year could do so again this year, and McCann is one of them. Obviously, I don’t think McCann will be able to do it and he doesn’t seem to be getting a lot of votes on Roos’s poll. Only five of 30 respondents (when I wrote this) had him on the list of 60-point possibilities. Maybe he comes in at a good draft price? (sep9)

4. Last week I talked about Oliver Wahlstrom potentially being the RW1 on the Island. I outlined why, but I didn’t include Kyle Palmieri, because I figured they wouldn’t have the room to sign him. Well, they did sign him, and they’re nearly $4M over the cap. I figure that means we’ve seen the last of Johnny Boychuk.

It seems people are down on Palmieri, but this guy averaged 30 goals every 82 games for five years, had one down season driven by shooting percentage, and it seems he's being written off. The concern here is not his talent, it’s ice time. His TOI fell off the face of the Earth in New York and if that doesn’t improve, well, there may not be much of a bounce back. But I believe in him, and I’ll dig into him more as draft season wears on. All I see is him  being drafted as often as Connor Brown and Josh Bailey so we need to recalibrate just how good he can be. (sep7)

5. Reader @DavidSt11951642 asked: Keep 5, 15 teams: last one between Necas, Hall, Perron, Bennett. Cats are G, A, Pts, +/-, Pim, Shp, Ppp, SOG?

D.D.: I don’t think you have much choice here. Perron is a point-per-game player now and instead of slowing down he seems to be still getting better at the age of 33. Logically he should slow, but even so – he’ll still outproduce those other guys. Even if Bennett has a breakout and Necas continues to make strides. (sep6)

6. Reader @JB75_CA asked: Dubois vs Meier vs Dvorak. League counts H+B, PIMS, and faceoff wins?

D.D.: Christian Dvorak will get you the faceoff wins, he’ll still be reasonably good for blocks, and I think he increases his production a little (to career highs). That should close the gap that Meier would have over him for points, and even cover off a Dubois bounce-back campaign. (sep6)

7. Reader @vanleygoodtakes asked: Keep 2 of 5 on the cusp, cap league, hits, blocks, pims: Zacha, Gurianov, Kyrou, Greenway, Olofsson. Do Kyrou/Olofsson produce enough to make up for lack of peripherals?

D.D.: I take Gurianov and Zacha here. I like where Zacha is trending and I think Gurianov is a safe bet. Kyrou is the best pick here for points, but he doesn’t hit and I don’t see him improving his production next season. Then again, what happens with Vladimir Tarasenko will dramatically influence that too. I have the comparison tool for those five players here. (sep6)

8. A lot of Kraken players will be on bubble keeper lists, due to the uncertain nature of their roles and production. Alexander Wennberg is another one of those players, managing to push his way back into the fantasy picture last season in Florida after two dismal seasons in Columbus under John Tortorella.

Wennberg’s most frequent line combination in Florida was with Jonathan Huberdeau and Patric Hornqvist. He won’t get to center a player of Huberdeau’s caliber in Seattle, but he should at least start in the top 6 with Yanni Gourde expected to miss the start of the season. Don’t assume that Wennberg will be moved off a scoring line when Gourde returns, as Gourde is a better player defensively. Plus, Wennberg is probably a better player for most teams than he was during his last two seasons with Columbus (a combined seven goals and 47 points over two seasons).

Over a full season, Wennberg would have been on pace for 25 goals in 2020-21. That is a massive outlier when you consider that he had only reached single digits in goals over his previous four seasons. That goal totals is also from an abnormal 20.7 SH%, which sticks out when compared to a career average of just under 10 percent. His secondary assist percentage (41.7%) was a bit low, so perhaps a reduction in goals will be offset by a slight increase in assists. All in all, Wennberg projects to a modest 40 points over a full season, with likely 25-30 of those points in the form of assists. Because I'm looking for a little more at the center position, I decided to let Wennberg go. (sep11)

9. Zach Parise has officially agreed to terms with the Islanders. This was one of the league’s worst-kept secrets thanks to a GM who is normally unrivaled at keeping secrets. Parise, whose lucrative contract with the Wild was bought out this summer, finished last season with just 18 points (7G-11A) in 45 games. He was even healthy scratched late in the season.  

Parise’s role with the Islanders will likely be as a secondary scorer who could slot in on the third line beside Jean-Gabriel Pageau. He also might receive second-unit power-play time. If you’re looking for a projection on Parise, it’s already in the Fantasy Guide (purchase here if you haven’t already). He might still have some name value from back when he was a top scorer, but at this point I’m not overly interested in Parise for fantasy purposes. (sep11)

10. To help our readers, I’m going to go through a litany of either/or decisions people may be facing. 

Victor Olofsson vs. Yegor Sharangovich

Olofsson has had a good start to his NHL career. He’s averaged 25 goals every 82 games, spanning 116 contests. Of course, the big change for him will likely be that Jack Eichel has played his last game in a Sabres uniform. In those 116 games, spanning over 1616 minutes at 5-on-5, the team scored nearly a quarter goal less with Olofsson on the ice with Eichel than any other center. He also played with Eichel for over half his 5v5 TOI, and that includes all the time Eichel missed with injury. Olofsson is a shooting bot, and he needs a great center to get him the puck; his offensive play-driving is a full standard deviation below league average. He does not have an elite center anymore, or even a good one. This could be a real tough year for Olofsson. On top of all this, he brings little in peripherals. He’s firmly on my Do Not Draft list.  

On the flipside, Sharangovich is just starting off and the team is on the rise. With Nico Hischier returning, there isn’t much concern about Sharangovich playing with a bad center, he will get either Hischier or Jack Hughes. What is most notable about the Belarussian’s season is how much ice time he earned as it wore on: he played 13:45 through the end of February and that rose to a shade under 18 minutes a night by the end of the year. We should also mention that on a per-minute basis, he was top-30 league-wide in shot rate, nestled between Jakub Vrana and Andrei Svechnikov. If he plays 18 minutes a night, 2.5 shots a night is very doable. He has 20 goals, 50 points, and 200 shots in his sights. This is an easy decision.

Verdict: Sharangovich (sep9)

11. Max Comtois vs. Oliver Wahlstrom

Anyone who regularly reads my stuff knows I’m a big fan of both these players. Comtois has a pedigree behind him, putting up over 1.5 points per game in his D+1 year in the QMJHL, had 24 points in 31 AHL games a couple seasons ago, and 33 points in 55 games last year. Whether QMJHL, AHL, or NHL, he’s produced at every level. Anaheim is starting to round into form a bit, and are playing in a weak division. With a bit more ice time, that he should get, Comtois is a real threat for 25 goals, 175 shots, and 175 hits. Those are eye-popping numbers for a guy who can probably be drafted around pick-200. His environment is a concern, but he got through it last year. I bet he can do it again.

Wahlstrom looked poised for a bigger role with the Islanders, building off a season where he had 12 goals in 44 games playing just 12 minutes a night. Unfortunately, the team re-signed Kyle Palmieri. That gives them Palmieri, Anders Lee, Josh Bailey, and Anthony Beauvillier for the top-6 winger spots. It looks as if Wahlstrom will be on the third line again. He may not play more than 14 minutes a night this year. That’s an improvement, but it’s not really enough to justify a high draft selection. His lack of ice time means that he could outproduce Comtois across the board on a per-minute basis, and still be the worse fantasy asset.

Verdict: Comtois in the near-term, Wahlstrom 3+ years down the road (sep9)

12. Adam Boqvist vs. Josh Morrissey

This is a battle of one player on a new team, and one player welcoming in a bevy of competition.

Boqvist is now in Columbus, a centrepiece of the Seth Jones trade. He looked like a cornerstone piece for the Blackhawks, but they want Jones, now, to help with the current Cup window, not Boqvist in three years. In that sense, it’s not about Boqvist or underperformance, but rather it speaks to how highly he’s thought of in the league. There is reason for that, too, beyond his first-round pedigree. In his rookie season, in a limited sample, Boqvist was at the top of the league in shot assists, or passes that lead to teammate shots – literally in the 100^th percentile. His zone exits with control were near the 90^th percentile. Again, a limited sample, but a great start.

Looking at 2021, it was much of the same. Boqvist led Chicago defensemen in primary shot assists by a significant margin. Across, his PSA rate compared to Morgan Rielly and Charlie McAvoy. Those are… great offensive comparisons. By zone entries with control, he was among the league leaders percentage-wise. His 2021 campaign was a continuation of his small-sample 2020 campaign. Now we have two small-ish samples of great transition/playmaking numbers, on top of his first-round pedigree, on top of his great draft+1 year. It just really seems as if Boqvist is on the cusp of being a special defenseman, it’s just a wonder if it all comes together with this Columbus core or not.

Morrissey averaged 41 points/82 games across 2018-20 but that fell off in 2021 to 31 points/82 games. What might not help here is that he got significant minutes at times through the year because of injuries and a thin blue line. That is probably going to change with the additions of Nate Schmidt (who provides PP1 competition) and Brenden Dillon. What is interesting to note about Morrissey is that after a couple seasons averaging under a hit per game, he was at 1.4 hits per game in 2021. That could be a huge advantage for him over Boqvist as the latter doesn’t hit or block shots very much. If these players have similar point totals, Morrissey wins in a landslide because of this. If Morrissey only puts up 30 points, though, it becomes more of a conversation. The problem is I still don’t think Columbus is going to be very good offensively, so Boqvist could be great individually and still not put up a ton of points. That makes me nervous for the next couple seasons.

Verdict: Morrissey (sep10)

13. Alex Nedeljkovic vs. Carter Hart

This feels like a lot of recency bias. Alex Nedeljkovic was a finalist for the Calder Trophy after a wonderful rookie season, it’s true. We would also be remiss not to mention that he’s 25 years old, Carolina had goaltending problems for a long time, and it took five years of pro play to get a 23-start season in the NHL. It isn’t as if this is Spencer Knight who’s blown the doors off at every stop and has a path to being a starter on an elite team. Ned has had some bad AHL seasons, which is why he didn’t become even a part-time starter until he was 25 years old. So, yes, there was a good little stretch here for him, but 23 games are nowhere near enough to say whether he’ll be good or bad in the future.

Then there is the team he’s going to. Sure, Detroit is absolutely on the rise. They still don’t have a very good team, though, and the East is much deeper than the West. Even at the most charitable, Detroit won’t be a top-10 team in the East this year, and that puts a lot of stress on a goalie. The Wings did get better as the season wore on and they might be able to score enough to get him some wins. But they gave up so many shots last season that Jonathan Bernier had a save percentage (.914) well above league average (.908) but his GAA was 2.99, compared to a league average of 2.74. That is what shot volume against does to a good goalie: makes him worse than average in fantasy. Again, Detroit will be better, but without significant improvements, Ned is staring down the barrel of below-average GAA and wins, even if he plays well.  

Carter Hart feels like he’s being thrown to the wayside by fantasy players. Here is a guy who had two good seasons as a 20/21-year-old, spanning 74 games. He then has a bad 2021, admitting how hard the COVID impact hit him, that spans 27 games, and he can sometimes be had as a third goalie in 12-team leagues, often as a late second goalie. I get that his 2021 season was really bad, but this feels like an over-correction. He has had a normal offseason, will get a normal training camp, and Martin Jones is not a threat to take over the starter’s gig. At worse it’ll be some sort of time share, but I think even that is a stretch. 

Before his brutal 2021 campaign, Hart’s two seasons saw him post a high-danger save percentage similar to that of both John Gibson and Andrei Vasilevskiy. The team is deep up front, added Ryan Ellis in the offseason, and has some young guys coming up. The Flyers have the makings of a good team, could be great, and Hart figures to be the starter for all of it. This is an easy one.

Verdict: Hart (sep10)

14. In net, both volume and ratios are important. My goalies from the last season in one of my fantasy leagues offer a few options with that: Carey Price, Robin Lehner, and Jack Campbell. With Price I could draft another volume starter or two and lock up the volume stats most weeks and still do fairly well in the ratios. Not a bad option. Campbell would afford me the opposite approach, but it’s Lehner that makes the most sense as probably the most valuable overall due to workload and team, but also because of the strategic flexibility that he affords. Now I can wait on my second goalie in the draft to see who slips. If it’s someone like Petr Mrazek or Jake Allen who won’t play as much but should keep solid ratios, then I can lock those down. If only some of the volume guys on poorer teams are left like Alex Nedeljkovic or Matt Murray, then I have the option to run with that too. Lehner is also going much earlier than the other two in drafts, and would be much harder to acquire even if he hits a cold streak. Price I could buy low on if he’s not healthy to start the season, and Campbell I could buy low on as soon as Mrazek is given two starts in a row. (sep8)

15. I want to look at an angle that maybe isn’t discussed as often, and that’s when to cut bait with your aging keeper-level players.

I know a couple of people this offseason that are wrestling with Alex Ovechkin, and whether he is worth keeping for the life of his next contract (and not having him come off the cap until he’s 40), or just trying to sort out if he’s worth keeping over options like Brady Tkachuk, Jonathan Huberdeau, or Mitch Marner. Ovechkin is elite in leagues with shots and hits counted on top of points, however, there comes a point where the immediate payoff is so marginally slim that a larger future payoff really starts to tip the scales. Keeping Huberdeau over Ovechkin doesn’t seem far-fetched at this point, but where do you draw the line? How about Elias Lindholm or Alex Debrincat? I think at that point it depends on your contention window.

Most won’t have to decide whether or not to keep Ovechkin though, because there are very few players to keep over him. Other players in the age 34+ category aren’t so fortunate. What then do we do with them? Sometimes, like Joe Pavelski last year, they become must-owns in every league format. (sep8)

16. In leagues with faceoff wins, Patrice Bergeron and Anze Kopitar are must-owns, and often in most other leagues as well. Pavelski holds his value well too when faceoffs count, especially in Yahoo leagues where his wing eligibility is important. Aside from that though, you do start to wonder when it’s worth keeping someone who is primed to break out like a Kaapo Kakko over a guy like Kopitar. What I find to be useful in helping to address the decision, is by taking 10% of the projected point production off of players over the age of 33 or so, and using that to compare to the projected numbers for the younger player. With projecting Kopitar around 70 points, and Kakko around 55, it still makes sense to keep Kopitar over Kakko at this point, but next year may be the year to take the youngster. (sep8)

17. Other forwards including T.J. Oshie, Dustin Brown, Jason Spezza, and Jeff Carter are possible older keeper options depending on the league. Oshie and Brown are excellent owns in leagues that also count shots and hits, though their style of play does make it a little more worrisome that they can keep up their high level. If you have options on a similar level to them, it may be best to cut bait with these two (Brown more so than Oshie though).

Meanwhile, Spezza and Carter’s games are built a little bit more on skill and smarts (and for Carter a large shot volume) which tends to lend itself more to longevity. Yes, you still want to consider knocking a percentage off of their projected totals when equating them to other keepers, but they are also more predictable in what they can produce, and predictability in your final keepers can be a valuable thing if you don’t have options with high ceilings to shoot with. (sep8)

18. On defense, there are a few fantasy relevant greybeards this year (yes, it is a little funny to call a 35-year-old a greybeard, but it’s all relative). Ryan Suter is looking to find some new life in Dallas. Keith Yandle is looking to keep his Iron-Man streak going in Philadelphia, while also hopefully taking over the top power play unit. Meanwhile, Alec Martinez is looking to re-produce his career season as the number-three in Vegas, with a new contract in his back pocket. At the age of 36, Suter is the most worrisome of the bunch as he just put up the worst offensive numbers since his sophomore season. He has averaged at least two minutes of power play ice time per game every year dating back to the 2005 lockout, but with Dallas not in need of offensive defensemen, that opportunity may vanish, and along with it, the rest of his fantasy value.

Yandle will likely retain value in points-only leagues as long as he is on one of the Flyers’ power play units, but just like Shayne Gostisbehere before him, there is no guarantee that the magic lasts. If he is someone on the bubble or that you are certainly planning on keeping, look to sell high a few weeks into the season. (sep8)

19. The only real bubble keeper option that is also relevant as a goaltender over the age of 34 right now is Anton Khudobin. He has a lot of competition this year with the youngster Jake Oettinger, the newcomer Braden Holtby, and the incumbent Ben Bishop possibly returning from injury as well. Khudobin will likely get the opening night start though, and on a bubble playoff team with a solid defensive scheme like Dallas, there should be some excellent value if your league is more ratio based than volume based. Because of all of the competition for starts, the volume won’t be there for Khudobin this year, and at this point, his numbers may have peaked already. He’s certainly a very viable option as the second goalie on your team, but just beware of expectations, especially in leagues where you need to hit minimum starts and don’t want to roster too many goalies. (sep8)

20. A Twitter follower asked whether the Jesperi Kotkaniemi acquisition means that Vincent Trocheck is no longer in the Hurricanes’ plans. I wouldn’t know for sure, but it is worth mentioning that Trocheck has one year left on his contract, as does Nino Niederreiter. Also, Jordan Staal‘s contract expires in two years when he will be 34. Of the three, I think the Canes are most likely to make a push toward re-signing Trocheck, but we'll see. They don't run their team in a conventional way, as evidenced by the way they handled their goalie situation, along with letting Dougie Hamilton walk while signing problem child Tony DeAngelo. 

The Canes might have a succession plan in mind with Kotkaniemi, who may already be in the process of discussing a long-term contract with the Canes. Keep in mind that since Kotkaniemi’s contract is also only one year, they may simply be giving him an audition before they decide what they want to do with him. Next season will be his fourth season, and it will be a critical one for him because of the pressure he's put on himself with the offer sheet amount. (sep5) 

21. Just to expand on my listing of Nick Suzuki as a player who is hurt by the Christian Dvorak acquisition, and because I didn’t explain why in the Fantasy Take, I honestly don’t think it will have a massive effect on him overall. Hence why Suzuki is the third guy on the “Players This Hurts” list and not the first. That being said, Dvorak has more immediate scoring upside than anyone else that the Habs had playing center last season, and that includes KK and Phillip Danault. So that’s why I thought that I should list him there.

If Suzuki slumps, Dvorak might get some top-line minutes. That’s how it works. Kind of like if a team upgraded its backup goalie, it might cut into the number of starts for the starting goalie. I guess it depends whether you consider Suzuki to be a top-line center. Suzuki had a nice season and was exceptional in the playoffs, but we’re talking about a player who would be a second-line center on the majority of teams. But if that playoff line of Suzuki, Cole Caufield and Tyler Toffoli, can pick up where they left off last season, he’s in a great spot to continue to improve.

Someone like Phil Kessel would be hurt considerably more than Suzuki would. As I had mentioned, the Coyotes are running out of scoring talent, and Kessel needs someone who can get him the puck. The Coyotes have now lost the two forwards who received the most ice time last season in Dvorak and Conor Garland, with Kessel third on the list. Not that fantasy owners are tripping over themselves in drafting Kessel anyway, as he is only 15% rostered in Yahoo leagues. (sep5)

Have a good week, folks – be safe!!

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