Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, and Dobber

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1. I get why Adam Fox is going as a top-3 or top-5 defenceman in fantasy leagues. He’s coming off the Norris win, he has paced for 58 points/82 games with the Rangers, he’s only 23, and the team is an offensive dynamo. The one thing people are leaving out of their analysis is this: he doesn’t hit. He has 58 hits in 125 career games, or like 40 a season. That is a big, big problem. Last year, Fox played to a 70-point, 34-PPP, plus-28 pace per 82 games, and was just inside the top-10 defencemen in fantasy. Think about that if you draft Fox as the fourth defenceman off the board. Think about him putting up 10 goals, 70 points, 30 PPPs, a plus-30 rating, and losing value on that draft pick. That is the impact of putting up so little in an entire category when we’re talking about the absolute elite draft picks.

Remember that he does put up a lot of blocks so that can help, but when we’re talking about the upper-crust of blue liners, a balanced attack is almost always what’s needed. Fox can’t really bring that so just beware about over-drafting him. I absolutely love him and his situation, there are just certain things he doesn’t do. It’s just the way it is. (sep24)

2. Early notes from Oilers’ camp: Jesse Puljujarvi and Zach Hyman were placed on a line with Connor McDavid. Hyman was given the long-term free agent deal this offseason, so there’s no surprise that he’s on the McDavid line. Puljujarvi’s most frequent center last season was in fact McDavid, so that shouldn’t be a huge shocker either. Continued use on the McDavid line is a good sign for Puljujarvi as he continues his development, though.

Puljujarvi has played 194 career games, so the 6-4 forward has a way to go before he hits the power forward breakout threshold of 400 games. Although he was drafted five years ago, he has never played more than 65 games in a season. So as Oilers fans can attest to, he’s been a project in the true sense of the word.

“Pool Party” is only 14 percent rostered in Yahoo leagues as well, so there’s a good chance he’s available on your league’s waiver wire in case he hits his stride before Game 400. Patience has been key if you’ve had Puljujarvi in your keeper pool all this time. I’m curious if anyone has stuck it out with him for five years, because given the breakout timeline, it may take even longer than that. (sep25)

3. Some tough news for Nicklas Backstrom, as he’s missing the start of training camp and is considered week-to-week for now. He is rehabbing an ongoing hip issue that has been plaguing him for years.

I am of two minds here. One is that I don’t like drafting injured players going into the season. It’s one thing to take a flyer on a guy in the late rounds, it’s another to forgo drafting guys like Sam Reinhart or Anze Kopitar to draft Backstrom instead. When he’s at his best, Backstrom can be a point-per-game centre. Is he going to be at his best? I am not sure I want to be the one spending draft capital to find out. Give me Kopitar two rounds later and let’s go. (sep24)

4. Never a dull moment in Buffalo, apparently. The Jack Eichel saga has been ongoing for months now, and there has been no hint of a resolution. From a fantasy perspective, fantasy owners are on edge about what to do here. His ADP is inside the top-100 but that feels like people guessing more than anything. Personally, I’m not drafting Eichel this year and I can’t imagine there’d be a lot of news that’d sway me.

It really does appear that 2021-22 is going to be a lost season for Eichel. Earlier hopes had been for Christmas but if he needs neck surgery, and hasn’t had it yet, and we’re a week away from October? I don’t see how Christmas is realistic, but I guess we’ll wait until it actually happens. (sep24)

5. I don’t think it was a huge concern for most people but it’s still nice to see, nonetheless, that Aaron Ekblad has been cleared to play and is feeling great. With Keith Yandle out of the mix, Ekblad looks to be the top PP option for a team that should be among the most potent offensively in the league. Combine that with his 24-25 minutes a night in ice time, and there’s a very good reason why people are picking Ekblad as a top-5 fantasy defenceman.

The only thing holding people back may have been his health. That isn’t really a concern now, though all “returning from knee injury” caveats apply. (sep23)

6. I won’t get into the vaccination debate here. I just hope everyone takes one. From a fantasy perspective, declining to be vaccinated for COVID is a disaster for Tyler Bertuzzi. Not playing games in Canada, by my count, shaves eight off, so he’ll play no more than 74. Then there’s the fact that unvaccinated people are much, much more likely to end up with more severe issues than their vaccinated counterparts. If Bertuzzi were to contract the virus, he’s much more likely to suffer a lengthier absence. I don’t like projecting injuries, but we know he’s maxed out at 74 games and is coming off a severe injury anyway. Can we project more than 70? (sep23)

7. The newcomers in Vegas are going to add some spice to the forward ranks. Nolan Patrick will make sure that Chandler Stephenson can’t get complacent with his first line role, while Evgenii Dadonov and Mattias Janmark will challenge the likes of Reilly Smith for time in the top-six and on one of the power play units.

Dadonov may actually be a great fit on the second line with Jonathan Marchessault and William Karlsson, knocking Smith down to a third scoring line with Patrick and Janmark (or Alex Tuch when healthy). The top-six is going to be the best spot in Vegas though, so keep a keen eye on who the odd men out are. (sep22)

8. The Predators, like the Wild, are looking to have a bit of an infusion of youth into the lineup. There are a few young forwards that will battle with the veterans under head coach John Hynes who notoriously spreads his minutes around. Eeli Tolvanen and Cody Glass will be fighting for top-six minutes, while top-prospect Philip Tomasino is fighting for a spot on the roster. All three should be the next wave of offence in Nashville, and sooner rather than later.

Tomasino, after last year’s success in the AHL, is looking to take his high upside to the NHL level. He’s less of a sure thing to make it than Marco Rossi above, but he might have a similar upside for the next few years. (sep22)

9. With Kirill Kaprizov‘s contract situation in the rearview mirror, there are a few rookies to be watching in Minnesota. Marco Rossi, Matt Boldy, and Calen Addision will all be making excellent cases to make the team. There isn’t a lot of room for Addison, but his dynamic ability to run a powerplay would serve the Wild well. Perhaps more importantly, though, Rossi could be a big part of the solution to the Wild’s centre position. He’s NHL ready right now, and despite his stature, he’s going to win more puck battles than he loses because he is built like a tree trunk. He’s skilled, and there are a plethora of skilled winger options around him. If his fitness is back after a long battle with Covid complications, then he is one of those rare rookies that could push for a point-per-game right off the bat. He could have a similar impact to Jason Robertson or teammate Kaprizov. (sep22)

10. Josh Mahura is NHL ready, but the Ducks have six defencemen on NHL contracts, plus they will be finding a spot to roster Jamie Drysdale. Mahura can contend with Drysdale for powerplay time, and puts up points everywhere he goes. With 20 points in 28 AHL games last season, he brings something the Ducks have been missing for a while now. With Drysdale on the right side, Mahura slots in as the puck-mover on the left-hand side behind Cam Fowler and Hampus Lindholm. His only other competition on the left side is Jacob Larsson and Kodie Curran. Neither are more than bottom-pairing NHL defencemen, so there’s an opportunity there for Mahura to jump to the NHL level and start producing already. (sep22)

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IN THE SHOP:

With NHL camps now in full swing, updates to our Fantasy Guide will be fast and frequent – often to the tune of three times per day. So, be sure to re-download the Guide for the latest changes as you head toward fantasy draft day.

For my francophone readers who prefer to read their gold in their native tongue, we have a translated version of the Guide. You can order your French version here (and please share with any of your francophone pals).

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11. With all the hubbub around Seattle, it seems one player that is constantly overlooked is Vince Dunn. He was a guy we were waiting to break out in St. Louis but he was never given the PP role he needed to succeed in fantasy. Now, I get that Mark Giordano is around and he could soak up PP time, but Dunn is 24 years old while Giordano is 37 and has one year left on his deal. I would like to see Seattle give Dunn the opportunity to run away with this, and it may be worth taking Dunn as a bench pick to find out if they do.  (sep21)

12. I am stunned by Morgan Rielly's current Yahoo ADP. As I wrote about last week, he’s going inside the top-10, and ahead of guys like Charlie McAvoy and Roman Josi.

The Leafs, as a team, got fewer shots in 2021 from their defence than any team not named Columbus. It is obviously a team philosophy, and it’s why Rielly has gone from 2.7 shots per game three years ago to 1.8 last year. If he’s not good for more than 150 shots or so, and lacks hits (which he always does), he’s completely reliant on production. And, we should note, he’s averaged 50 points/82 games over the last two years. Is 50 points with weak peripherals a top-10 fantasy defenceman? I will let the readers decide.

That is something to keep in mind with all Leafs d-men, by the way. They didn’t have a single defenceman reach two shots per game last year. It is a team thing, so even if someone else gets the top PP minutes, there’ll be some peripherals missing. Just something to keep in mind when drafting their blue line.  (sep21)

13. I get why Elias Pettersson‘s ADP is around 50^th off the board. He’s coming off injury, the team still has some gigantic holes, and there are some issues with his game – he doesn’t provide a ton of peripherals, for example. For me, however, Pettersson represents a mark of delineation this year. When we look at the centres being drafted after him, we see names like Barzal, O’Reilly, and Kuznetsov. In other words, other players that don’t provide peripherals, and I’d argue players that won’t be point-per-game players. I believe that, if healthy, Pettersson is a point-per-game player, and we’ll see it this year. If he’s there in the fifth round, he’s on my roster.  (sep21)

14. Folks, we love Anthony Mantha, don’t we? By his ADP, he’s going around players like Voracek and Buchnevich. That feels about right for comparison’s sake, and also for his uncertainty. We don’t know for sure that Mantha will get top PP minutes, and that is a concern. It could be the difference between a 50-point season and a 65-point season. That uncertainty is part of why his ADP is so low, and why I think it’s worth taking the gamble. Evgeny Kuznetsov has certainly fallen out of favour at times, so it’s not impossible that Mantha takes some of his minutes. He can also provide 2.5 shots and a hit per game, so there’s more there than just goals.  (sep21)

15. Speaking of ADPs, Cole Caufield‘s is very interesting to me. He’s going around the top-100 picks, and I think that feels right? This is a guy with a lot production in his history and he looked great in the playoffs for the Habs. At the same time, as I’ve often mentioned, this team spreads out their ice time and even someone like Brendan Gallagher saw meagre ice time last season. Their winger rotation is just too deep to rely on two or three guys like other teams do.

In that sense, I don’t know if Caufield gets much more than 15-16 minutes a game this year. I have him for 16:30 a night, which I think is on the high end, and at 27 goals and 50 points. That is a great season, and with his lack of hits, is nowhere near enough for a top-100 pick. David Perron and William Nylander have ADPs later than he does. They have Caufield’s floor and a higher ceiling just because his ice time will be so limited. Something to keep in mind. (sep23)

16. In the Traverse City prospects tournament, Columbus prospect Yegor Chinakhov has six goals in three games to lead all prospects in that department. I don’t have him making the Blue Jackets, but he’ll get cups of coffee there. His progress to NHL-readiness is moving quickly. When he was drafted I figured he was four to five years away. It will likely wind up being two. I think he’s a year away at this point. (sep20)

17. It seems like most teams have a clear No.1 defenseman. Let's take a look at a couple. Who is my favorite for Calgary and Philadelphia? See Seattle and NY Islanders by following the link… 

Calgary:
Contenders – Noah Hanifin, Rasmus Andersson, Juuso Valimaki.
Long Shots – Oliver Kylington, Johannes Kinnvall.

I rule out Kylington because he is still not proving himself as a legit NHLer and is getting scratched more than he’s actually playing. Kinnvall would have made a nice dark horse because he’s a late-blooming, undrafted player who really shone in the SHL the last two seasons. But when the Flames signed Erik Gudbranson and Michael Stone, that pretty much spelled the end of Kinnvall’s chances of making the team on a full-time basis.

So that leaves out contenders. Now that Mark Giordano‘s gone, a lot of PPTOI has been freed up. Last season Andersson averaged 2:44 per game, and that actually beat Giordano. But if you look closely, Andersson’s PPTOI started off huge at 3:47 per game. By the second half, that number had dipped to two minutes. Meanwhile, Hanifin’s PPTOI trended the opposite way – he saw very little time early on, but finished the second half with over 1:30. Giordano is a left shot and so is Hanifin. But Andersson shoots right. I think you’ll see Andersson getting similar PPTOI in the year ahead, and I suspect it will follow a similar trend in that it will decline over time. Hanifin, meanwhile, absorbs Giordano’s PPTOI.

Because I think Hanifin will produce better results early on, I can see his PPTOI increasing with each quarter. It’s why I have him setting career highs in 2021-22. As for Valimaki, he is the future of that power play. He has higher upside than any of them, but he turns just 23 in a couple of weeks and is coming off a season in which he hardly saw any PP time at all. For this season, it will be enough just to see him get a few sniffs. They’ll ease him in, so I can see 1:00 PPTOI per game, give or take. An introduction to the role, but with more to come down the road. (sep20)

18. Philadelphia:
Contenders – Ryan Ellis, Ivan Provorov, Keith Yandle, Rasmus Ristolainen.
Long shots – Travis Sanheim, Cam York

Sanheim has turned into the team’s top shutdown defenseman and York is an unproven rookie. And given the other options, you can safely count those two players out.

Ristolainen once had 69 PPPts in three seasons (2015-2018) and at 26 he’s only now entering his prime. But given the talent of the other three contenders, he’s probably looking at secondary PP time. His PPTOI has declined in each of his last three seasons.

Provorov is a very effective player at both ends of the ice and on both special teams. It’s because he’s so good in all areas that it works against him. Yandle is only good for one thing – the power play. Whereas Provorov is good for many things. He averaged 2:23 PPTOI last season and I don’t see that happening unless Ryan Ellis gets injured (again) or they give up on the Yandle experiment. The latter wouldn’t happen until late in the season, if it happens at all.

Over the last two campaigns, Ellis has boasted a PPIPP of over 80%. That’s pretty fantastic. Because he’s a left shot and Yandle shoots right, I think the Flyers will go with a three-forward/two-defenseman first unit. The second unit will likely have four forwards and then either Provorov or Ristolainen. (sep20)

19. Roope Hintz shocked the fantasy world by scoring at over a point per game last season, but I’ll probably remember him more as the “perpetual game-time decision.” You're truly dedicated to fantasy hockey if you had the patience to check your lineup 30 minutes before gametime each time he played just to confirm. Now that he’s had his offseason surgery and is 100 percent, even bigger and better things should be in store, right?

Better health might mean better results, but you might want to take a look at a few of his advanced stats before you use that high pick on him (ADP 65.7 in Yahoo). The major outliers were a 11.2 5-on-5 SH% and a 3.5 PTS/60, which were drastically higher than that of his previous two seasons. In addition, a 1039 PDO was also rather high. A minor bit of good news in the advanced stats department showed a lower-than-normal 32.1 secondary assist percentage.

Another positive on Hintz is a potential increase in power-play points, as Chris Kane pointed out in the latest Frozen Tools Forensics. So the conclusion that I might draw from Hintz overall is that I don’t think he will be a point-per-game player again. However, he will still be a highly effective player anyway, and one that you should expect to be in your lineup more often. I think he is being drafted a little too high in Yahoo leagues, but since I have him in the Top 100 Roto Rankings, I wouldn’t wait for him to drop too far below his ADP before drafting him. He probably won't slip under the radar. (sep19)

20. I remember several fantasy experts predicting that Rasmus Dahlin was in for a big season in 2020-21, one in which he would enter the elite circle of defensemen in fantasy. Unfortunately, the tire fire that was Buffalo got in the way, and Dahlin had easily his worst season of his three NHL seasons (0.41 PTS/GP, minus-36).

As a result of that season, and probably due to the lack of talent currently surrounding him, Dahlin has fallen to a Yahoo ADP of 151. On top of that, Dahlin is currently an unsigned RFA with training camp starting in several days. This all adds up to a ton of reasons to ignore Dahlin.

However, a few advanced stats indicate he was the victim of some bad luck. Dahlin scored a low 1.1 PTS/60 last season, compared to 2.1 PTS/60 in 2019-20. His PDO also was a career-low 964. This was a player who was on a 56-point pace in 2019-20 who cooled off to just a 34-point pace in 2020-21. Surely some of that regression has to go the other way.

Overall, Dahlin should bounce back in some way in 2021-22. The Sabres couldn’t be any worse, so maybe a bit of an improvement in the team will help Dahlin’s numbers. However, this simply might be a case of Dahlin not producing to his full potential until the team around him improves significantly. (sep19)

21. Zdeno Chara is back for another season, joining the team that traded him away 20 years ago! The Islanders have signed the over-40 defenseman to a one-year contract (amount not disclosed). Entering his 24^th NHL season, Chara is currently 13^th in all-time games played (1,608 GP). For the Isles, Chara fills a void on the left side, although he’s probably a third-pairing defenseman at this point in his career. It is worth mentioning that he only missed one game for the Capitals last season. Chara’s presence might bump Thomas Hickey to the press box and keep Robin Salo in the AHL. Remember that the Isles are also bringing in Erik Gustafsson on a PTO (discussed yesterday). (sep19)

Have a good week, folks – be safe!!

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