Ramblings: Murray to be Waived; Hot Hartman, Hagel; Struggling Scheifele, Pettersson (Nov 27)

Ian Gooding

2021-11-27

Happy belated Thanksgiving to all our American friends! Since Friday was Black Friday, we were treated to some daytime hockey, which is unusual for a weekday.

Ryan Strome has extended his point streak to seven games with his goal and assist in Friday's matinee. That gives him 12 points over his last 11 games as he continues to benefit from playing on Artemi Panarin's line. Strome is still a UFA at the end of the season, so it will be interesting to see what happens with him and how it may affect his fantasy value going forward.

Dryden Hunt is now the third player on that line, and he also scored a goal and added an assist to go with four hits. He's not seeing any power-play time, but he could be worth a flier in deeper bangers leagues based on his top-6 even-strength usage.

Or could that be your reaction when someone tries to circumvent your league rules? Or when someone sends you a trade offer of two of their worst players for your best player? Kidding aside, it should come at absolutely no surprise that Brad Marchand was the recipient of this glove toss.

With another goal on Friday, Ryan Hartman now has goals in four of his last five games as well as 13 points in his last 14 games. Hartman's recent hot streak was enough to have him featured in the most recent Geek of the Week and Wild West columns. If you look at the overall shooting percentage and other advanced stats, the goal output doesn't seem sustainable. But there are a couple of factors going for Hartman at the moment: 1) He has doubled his shot total per game (3.4 SOG/GP) from previous seasons (1.5-1.7 SOG/GP), and 2) He is taking advantage of time on the Kirill Kaprizov line. That could mean that he continues to score more goals in the short term. That should be the view of any Hartman add in fantasy leagues, as his current 40+ goal pace seems improbable.

Speaking of Kaprizov, he filled your roto categories with a goal, three assists, a plus-4, and six shots. He's the main reason that 7-1 wins are possible for the Wild.

Connor Hellebuyck was pulled after allowing four goals on 14 shots while the Jets were manhandled by the Wild. That Really Bad Start broke his string of nine consecutive quality starts, during which he had allowed more than two goals only once.

One Jet that's really been struggling is Mark Scheifele. Zero points on Friday and over his last three games, where he's been a minus-6. Also no goals in his last five games and only eight shots taken over that span. Although he's missed time due to COVID protocol and that carryover one-game suspension from last season, Scheifele has been held to just one power-play point and two goals over 14 games. With a shooting percentage that is roughly half of what he normally has, Scheifele seems like a potential buy-low if you are able to trade for him at a discount.

Sebastian Aho's two goals on Friday resulted in his fourth two-point game over his past seven games. He also fired seven shots on goal.

With a goal on Friday, Brandon Hagel now has goals in three consecutive games and six goals in his last eight games. Hagel was on a line with Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews and also received first-unit power-play time in this game, so new coach Derek King has noticed the recent production. In five games under King (interrupted by a three-game injury absence), Hagel has four goals. We talk about players that are helped and hurt when a coaching change happens, and it's possible that Hagel is that guy in Chicago.

In the Fantasy Take on the Chicago coaching change, I discussed Dylan Strome as a player who could only improve. Turns out that he was healthy scratched on Friday. Strome has just a goal and an assist since King took over from Jeremy Colliton. You should be safe to move on from Strome if you haven't already.

David Perron left Friday's game against Chicago with an upper-body injury, which puts his status for Saturday's game in doubt.

Friedge bomb time…

You kind of knew that Matt Murray moving to Ottawa would be rough on his fantasy value, but for him to be waived in his second year of his contract might seem surprising given his investment. He simply hasn't delivered on his $6.25-million-per-season contract since being acquired. In fairness, the rebuilding state of the Senators hasn't made it easy, and we know how much teams affect a goalie's fantasy value. I don't believe he'll be claimed because of the contract, even if a team out there would like to change up its goaltending situation. But don't rule out a trade if the Sens add some kind of sweetener. If Murray is acquired by the right team, his fantasy value could rebound to some degree.

The Senators have lost 10 of their past 11 games, but Murray was scratched for Friday's loss to Anaheim. Murray has played just once in the past two weeks, during which he allowed four goals in a loss to San Jose on Wednesday.

Anthony Stolarz pitched a shutout in this game, stopping all 34 shots he faced. John Gibson has started the previous eight games for the Ducks, so Stolarz is only worth adding for spot starts. Yet because the Ducks have been better than advertised, Stolarz should be worth a long look for that spot start that you need depending on the matchup.  

From the "keeps doing his thing" file, Alex Ovechkin recorded a hat trick on Friday. That gives him 18 goals in 21 games, which is second to only Leon Draisaitl. There are a ton of superlatives to describe Ovechkin, but what if I told you that his 1.71 PTS/GP (36 points in 21 games) this season is the highest point-per-game production of his career? Sure, virtually all of Ovie's advanced stats suggest a regression. But even with that and his age (36), are you really going to bet against this guy?

With three helpers on Friday, Evgeny Kuznetsov is also scoring at over a point per game (27 points in 21 games). He is reversing the trend of his last few seasons, during which he dipped from being a point-per-game player to finishing with under a 60-point pace last season. Lining up with Ovechkin helps, while his advanced stats also show that this production is sustainable. You should be okay holding on to him.

Tom Wilson scored a goal and added two assists on Friday, giving him goals in three consecutive games and six points over that span.

Sergei Bobrovsky had an injury scare in this game, leaving briefly after colliding with Ovechkin's first goal, but he managed to return later.

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The Islanders haven't been a tough test for anyone lately, but Tristan Jarry was up to the task on Friday. Jarry stopped all 25 shots he faced in the 1-0 shutout. That gives Jarry three shutouts in his last five games, and just two goals allowed over those five games. He also has eight quality starts over his last nine games, which should put him into must-start status each time he plays.

By the way, the Islanders have now lost eight games in a row. With 13 road games to start, we shouldn't be surprised that they haven't burst out of the gate. However, they have scored just seven goals over that span while being shut out three times. The Isles aren't necessarily known for their scoring, but you wouldn't have expected it to be this bad.

With a relatively easy 17-save shutout of Seattle, Andrei Vasilevskiy has now earned back-to-back shutouts this week. Vasilevskiy also earned his 10th win, which ties him for fifth in the league. The top four goalies all have 11 wins. The wins are a major reason that Vasilevskiy is a top-tier goalie.

If you have a fantasy question, you might want to use the Player Compare on Frozen Tools to help you make your decision.

It doesn't mean that I won't try to answer any questions I receive (time and expertise on the league format/players involved are two factors that determine whether I respond). It's just that Player Compare is an outstanding feature that allows you to compare up to 10 players. Since every league is different, Player Compare will allow you to compare the players by your own league categories, as well as past production and other useful metrics predicting future production.

If your question is time sensitive (ie. who to start/sit today), I would also suggest the Forum, where you can quickly receive multiple opinions.

At the top of the Frozen Tools top searched players, Elias Pettersson was on what would be described as the third line with Vasily Podkolzin and Justin Dowling on Friday. Although he played a better overall game on Friday, Pettersson was held without a point with just one shot. He's now at an ice-cold one point in his last eight games. Like the Canucks' fortunes, you probably didn't think it would be that bad.

In case you missed it, Rick answered the question about trading Pettersson in the latest Forum Buzz. Honestly, I'm at a point where I'm not sure what I would do. The Pettersson owner in one of my leagues has put him on the block, but I'm not really motivated to make an offer. The league is shallow enough that most of the players I roster have been at least as productive as Petey. In addition, I have another struggling center that I've been waiting on in Scheifele (see above).

I do wonder, however, if a coaching change would accomplish something. Travis Green has implemented a more defensively responsible system this season, which has hurt the production of Pettersson and Brock Boeser. This is a team that is down in the dumps right now – perhaps waiting for the axe to fall on at least one of Green or GM Jim Benning.

Tage Thompson scored twice on Friday, which gives him six points over his last four games. That includes another two-goal game from Monday and another two-point game. Thompson is now up to 10 goals on the season, which of course leads the Sabres. Although his shooting percentage is still quite high (17.2%), the goal total shouldn't be that much of a fluke. The 6-7 Thompson is averaging nearly three shots per game, which also leads the Sabres. Thompson is getting it done on a line with Victor Olofsson and Jeff Skinner (remember him?)

With a goal on Friday, Cale Makar now has goals in five consecutive games and seven games over that span. Over those five games, Makar has ramped up the shooting with 27 shots. That's an average of over five per game, which was boosted by a nine-shot performance on Monday against Ottawa. Over a longer stretch, Makar has 16 points in his last 11 games, which is absurd for a defenseman.

Joe Pavelski scored twice in the Stars' 3-1 win over the Avalanche. If you were expecting a slowdown this season, that hasn't happened lately, as Pavelski has 10 points over his last 11 games.

One more ramble, just to satisfy Leaf Nation: Joseph Woll won't unseat Jack Campbell as the Leafs' starter, but he should be at least added to your list of streamable backups, especially with the way the Leafs are winning. Woll followed up a 20-save shutout of the Islanders on Sunday with a 34-save effort in earning his third consecutive win – a 4-1 decision over San Jose. Campbell, by the way, has six consecutive quality starts, so he won't make it easy for Woll to earn additional starts while Petr Mrazek is out.

For more fantasy hockey discussion, follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 27 - 19:12 DET vs TOR
Dec 27 - 19:12 BUF vs CHI
Dec 27 - 19:12 CBJ vs BOS
Dec 27 - 19:12 N.J vs CAR
Dec 27 - 20:12 DAL vs MIN
Dec 27 - 20:12 STL vs NSH
Dec 27 - 21:12 UTA vs COL
Dec 27 - 22:12 S.J vs VGK

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
LUKE HUGHES N.J
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
PATRIK LAINE MTL
KIRILL MARCHENKO CBJ
BRYAN RUST PIT

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
KAREL VEJMELKA UTA
DUSTIN TOKARSKI CAR
FILIP GUSTAVSSON MIN
SERGEI BOBROVSKY FLA
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency PIT Players
24.9 BRYAN RUST RICKARD RAKELL SIDNEY CROSBY
22.1 MATT NIETO BLAKE LIZOTTE NOEL ACCIARI
15.5 EVGENI MALKIN CODY GLASS MICHAEL BUNTING

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