Ramblings: Playoff Series Predictions; Early Injuries & Scratches (May 4)

Alexander MacLean

2022-05-04

We have postseason hockey, and oh is it glorious! Goals galore, heavy hits, everything on the line, and a couple of suspension worthy plays mixed in for good measure. What we're not used to seeing though is all of the penalties called. We're seeing a big uptick from the number of calls in the regular season, and while that's how it should be in the postseason as everyone toes the line even more than usual, it's never the way it actually goes.

My hope is that the refs are consciously making an effort to call the rulebook, and that this keeps consistent through the postseason. It hasn't seemed to take away from the intensity, but it has added to the number of scoring chances. If it then continues into next season, we could continue to see an uptick in scoring. If you want to market the NHL, then this is the ideal direction for things to be going. I don't think it's an accident.

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Our DobberHockey writers put together their playoff picks, and it feels great to be looking good early, with even LA coming through winning game one as the away team. Florida may be down early, but they're not a team that I'm worried about. I wanted to quickly run through each series, what I'm expecting to see, and why I picked the winner that I did.

Florida v Washington (My pick: FLA in 4)

As the President's Trophy winners, the Panthers are an easy pick as the favourites over the Capitals. The Panthers have the advantage in size, firepower, depth, and in net. The Capitals may end up winning one or two, but this would be the most surprising place to see an upset.

Carolina v Boston (CAR in 6)

The complete opposite from the first series, this one is a coin flip in my eyes. The Hurricanes won game one with their depth and goaltending, while the older Bruins looked like they had a tougher time keeping up. If the playoffs do end up having more scoring, then the Hurricanes have the advantage, but I picked them regardless as they are the kind of team that can create relentless pressure with mismatches. Lately they have been running Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Martin Necas on the fourth line. That kind of scoring talent down the lineup can be the difference in a longer series.

New York v Pittsburgh (NYR in 6)

Both teams have some top-heavy firepower up front, and one stud on defence plus a solid committee afterwards. The difference between them is in net, where the best goalie in the league is going up against an average backup goalie (due to Tristan Jarry's injury). The Rangers also made a conscious effort to build up their depth in the offseason, making them harder to play against, especially with the playoffs in mind. As long as they can stay out of the box, they should be able to outplay the Penguins' bottom-six.

Toronto v Tampa Bay (TOR in 6)

There comes a time where after a win, there's less of a will to leave everything on the line again. It seems for a lot of cup champions that comes the next season, and they often fail to get to the second round. The Lightning had both exceptional talent, and a higher will to win last year, and ended up repeating. However, down the stretch this season they seemed to lose a bit of cohesiveness. The team was allowing four goals in every second game, though they did manage to outscore some of their problems through that stretch and cover it up. They only have a small amount of new blood, and the two-time cup winners have played a lot of hockey over the last two seasons. Toronto does have first round demons, but they have filled their holes a little more effectively this year with the additions of Mark Giordano, Ondrej Kase, Michael Bunting, and Colin Blackwell, and they should be able to outplay the lightning enough to take it in six (on the forums I did add the caveat that if the series went to seven then my money would be on the Lightning in that game).

Colorado v Nashville (COL in 5)

Like the Panthers in the East, the Avalanche are the most complete team in the West, and have an easier matchup in round one. On top of that, the Predators will be without star goaltender Juuse Saros for at least the first two games in the series (and possibly the entire playoffs) due to a high-ankle sprain. With news that Gabriel Landeskog and Nazem Kadri would be back for game one, it's a complete mismatch on paper. That being said, the cliché goes that the game is played on the ice, not paper, and that will be true in this series as the Predators can both score, and play a very heavy game. It is a style that will lend itself very well to playoff hockey. I would be surprised if they got swept, but it's tough to give the Preds any kind of odds to actually come out of the series.

Minnesota v St. Louis (STL in 7)

This could easily be called the heavyweight title fight of the first round, with both the Blues and the Wild having realistic claims to be viable Cup contenders. With how hot the Blues were down the stretch, they just have the vibes of a team that will be able to find a way to come out of a series like this. The Wild also paid up for Marc-Andre Fleury, and I wonder whether the need to start him as a result of his history will cause some tension when Cam Talbot has been the much better goalie of late.

Calgary v Dallas (CAL in 5)

The Flames, like all Canadian teams, have struggled in the playoffs in recent years. The difference from previous iterations of this team is the coach. Darryl Sutter has this team firing on all cylinders, and all of the underlying numbers are exceptional. There are two breakout defencemen, multiple forward lines that can both grind and score, as well as Jacob Markstrom in net who tied for the most shutouts in the league in the regular season. Dallas has an aging core that has been buoyed by a rejuvenated Joe Pavelski lining up with Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson. They do feel like a one-line team right now though, despite names like Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, and Alexander Radulov down the lineup.

Edmonton v Los Angeles (LA in 6)

This was my one real upset pick. Two of the best players in the world up against a relatively under heralded defence core that is missing Drew Doughty – sounds like a recipe for a quick series in Edmonton's favour, no? Well Los Angeles has the benefit of one of the most defensively responsible forward cores, especially with the one-two punch of Anze Kopitar and Phillip Danault down the middle. The best way to stop Connor McDavid isn't with defencemen, it's with the forward core smothering him before the wheels can really get moving. The real difference maker here though that made me lean towards the Kings was in net, where Jonathan Quick gives the team a huge advantage over Edmonton's Mike Smith.

My projected final was the Panthers over the Blues. Going back to through the slary cap era, the parity in the league has ensured that we typically see one top-four team in the finals, and one team ranked somewhere between five and 16 in the regular season. That means that I was knocking off one of Florida or Colorado off, and I think if it happens then it's in round two again by the winner of the Minnesota/St. Louis winner. It's always tough projecting these things though, and sometimes you just have to go with the feeling.

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Last night was not a good night for injuries, as all three of Rickard Rakell, Tom Wilson, and Ryan Lindgren left their respective games and did not return. Rakell looked shaken when leaving, and if it is indeed a concussion, his timetable will be completely up in the air. What it could mean for fantasy though is that in Rakell's case, he fails to get talked about much over the summer and could be had for cheaper in drafts than you can usually find a 50-point, 200-shot player, but could exceed that in selecting his next location as a UFA. Tom Wilson and Ryan Lindgren were both seen coming out of the dressing rooms for short periods to talk to the trainers before leaving for good in regulation. It may not be the last we see of them in the playoffs, but there is something serious enough going on in both cases, though Lindgren did manage to finally return in overtime.

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A couple players who also missed last night's games were Alex Newhook and Eeli Tolvanen, as both were healthy scratches. Newhook especially was a surprise for me, as I had drafted him in at least one playoff pool. Both are young skilled players, and the coaches do really tend to lean towards size and experience in the playoffs. In Nashville, Tolvanen had been on the fourth line of late, so pulling him out of the lineup isn't exceptionally remarkable.

With Nashville getting blown out, Tolvanen may be inserted for game two to bring another scoring threat, while Newhook may have to wait for an injury to get his turn.

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Yaroslav Askarov is heading to North America, and is in line to sign his ELC to start for the 2022-2023 season. With Connor Ingram likely backing up in Nashville next year (and currently up due to Saros' injury), there is an opening in Milwaukee for Askarov to step in and see a lot of starts. He may be one of the highest upside goalies out there, but his NHL impact is still a few years away. If you're looking for a more immediate impact with the next KHL goalie coming over, then look no further than Fedotov – his DobberProspects profile can be found here.

The six-foot-eight goalie was drafted in the seventh round all the way back in 2015, and has dominated in Russia over the last few years. He has made his intentions to come to North America quite clear, and Carter Hart has not done a lot of late to keep a steady hold on the starter's job.

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Sticking with goalies, the cheapest one to acquire this summer will be Philipp Grubauer after his disastrous first year in Seattle (who didn't fare much better with anyone else in the net either). Seattle has let their goalie coach go, and we have seen that make a big difference for some goaltenders. Seattle doesn't project to be all that much better next year as there is a conveniently strong draft class in 2023, but at least if Grubauer doesn't get back to his Colorado numbers, he still didn't cost you much at all to acquire.

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K'Andre Miller is a bear that I might not want to be poking. Keep an eye on him as the series goes on.

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Find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments. May the fourth be with you and your fantasy teams.

Cheers!

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