Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, and Dobber

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1. If Valeri Nichushkin is the darkhorse Conn Smythe candidate on the Avalanche, then Ondrej Palat fits that description for the Lightning. Palat leads the Lightning with 11 playoff goals, while he is second on the team to Nikita Kucherov with 20 playoff points. Moreover, Palat also leads the Lightning with 18 even-strength points, as he wasn’t bumped up to the first power-play unit until late in the second round and has just one power-play point since the first round. Palat is benefitting from a team-high 23.9 SH%, while no other Lightning player has a shooting percentage higher than 15%. Yet as long as Palat is scoring, he will be on the top line with Kucherov and Steven Stamkos.

One downside of multiple Stanley Cup runs is that free agents become more difficult to retain. Like Nichushkin with the Avalanche, Palat is improving his stock as he continues to score in the playoffs. Palat’s overall production actually declined this season (0.64 PTS/GP) compared to last season (0.84 PTS/GP) and he is now on the wrong side of 30, but general managers have a short memory on free agent frenzy day anyway. Both Palat and Nichushkin could make it impossible for their respective teams to re-sign, but that’s a problem for another day. Both teams have a Stanley Cup to try to win. (jun25)

2. Some injury news:

Joel Farabee underwent disc replacement surgery and is expected to require 3-4 months of recovery time. Depending on recovery time, Farabee could miss at least the start of training camp and worst-case scenario the start of the season. This is the same surgery that Jack Eichel underwent after his trade to Vegas, and Eichel was back in action three months after the surgery, which would be positive news if Farabee is on your roster. However, Eichel and Tyler Johnson (also three-month recovery) are the only two players believed to undergo the surgery, so that estimated timeline still has a very low sample size.

Chris Kreider has undergone surgery to remove a small bone fragment from his wrist. The timetable for his recovery is 2-4 weeks, so he should be ready to start training camp on time. (jun25)

3. Some coaching news:

According to Frank Seravalli, the Chicago Blackhawks are hiring Luke Richardson to be their next head coach. Richardson has paid his dues with over a decade of experience between working as an NHL assistant coach and AHL head coach, so it is nice to see him rewarded with a head coaching opportunity. The Blackhawks are about to endure a tough slog these next few years with the Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews contracts about to enter their final year and the possibility that Alex DeBrincat will be traded. Richardson sounds like he is the type that will be patient in handling a team that will not have high expectations.

Barry Trotz has announced that he will not be returning to coaching next season. Trotz has coached for 25 consecutive years, so he is probably in need of a break. Of course, Manitoba native Trotz was rumored to be considering the Jets job. The remaining coaching dominos should now quickly fall into place for the teams that still do not have a head coach, including for Winnipeg.

Need a rundown of the fantasy impact of all the coaching changes this offseason? Check out our Fantasy Take – Latest NHL Moves page. (jun25)

4. Cody Glass has accepted his qualifying offer, which is a one-year, two-way contract. Glass stands to earn $874,125 at the NHL level. After being traded from Vegas to Nashville this past offseason, Glass recorded just a single assist in eight games while posting 62 points (14 G – 48 A) in 66 games at the AHL level. Nashville could use his scoring upside, and he seems like a decent bet to make the NHL roster next season. He just may not have the ceiling that he had when he was first drafted, though.

For more on Glass, you can order Dobber’s 16th annual Fantasy Prospects Report! There is a reason why sales of this document have increased every year for 16 consecutive summers: when you buy it, you’ll wonder why you ever went without it (and never make that mistake again!) Order it here. (jun25)

5. Staying with the Predators, Filip Forsberg has been offered an eight-year contract to stay in Nashville. Forsberg put it all together in his contract year, with only 16 players producing a higher point-per-game average (1.22 PTS/GP). Some of his advanced stats were a bit higher than normal (18.6 SH%, 11.7 5on5 SH%, 4.0 PTS/60), which is something to keep an eye on besides what team he plays for next season. I get the sense that Forsberg wants to test the free agent waters, as it sounds like he could really cash in. (jun25)

6. My last few Ramblings have all covered the same topic, that being scoring chance data. We looked at stars like Jack Hughes and Robert Thomas a little over a week ago, moved on to less proven young guns like Seth Jarvis and Dawson Mercer earlier this week, and yesterday we discussed guys at the bottom of our scoring chance data like Anze Kopitar and Anthony Beauvillier. It was an attempt to see who had contributed significantly to their team’s scoring chances, who didn’t, and what it tells us about their future.

Those Ramblings focused on forwards. As I’ve stated often, what I like writing about most is defensemen. So, let's look at some data we have for defensemen, but because of the in-depth nature, we'll need to follow the link for analysis on Zach Werenski, Brent Burns and Cam York… (jun24)

7. We saw the NHL announce their awards this past week, and you can find the full breakdown in lots of places quickly if you google it. There’s not a lot of fantasy value to be gained from awards and all, but they are a fun way to wrap-up the season and look ahead to potential winners next year. Let’s do just that with my way-too-early picks for next year’s awards:

Hart Trophy:

2021-22 Winner: Auston Matthews
2022-23 Predicted winner: Kirill Kaprizov

With Minnesota in the prime of their contention window, but lacking the cap space to acquire many more difference makers, Kaprizov is going to have to shoulder a heavy load next year while this team keeps pace with Colorado in the Central. It’s also boring to pick a repeat winner. (jun22)

8. Norris Trophy:

21/22: Cale Makar
22/23: Miro Heiskanen

Heiskanen got a bit of love this year, and probably could have been higher on a lot of ballots. He plays every part of the game well, and plays a lot. With John Klingberg likely leaving in the offseason, the D-core in Dallas is Miro’s to run. Having to carry around Ryan Suter while playing his off-side, Heiskanen really hasn’t had the shackles off for a full season… yet. (jun22)

9. Vezina Trophy:

21/22: Igor Shesterkin
22/23: Ilya Sorokin

When Sorokin carries a left-for-dead Islanders team to the playoffs next year, and plays 60 games on route, it’s going to be tough to vote for anyone else here. Shesterkin’s season was historic, and he will certainly be a challenger, but there’s maybe a workload question to be asked at some point too. (jun22)

10. Calder Trophy

21/22: Moritz Seider
22/23: Marco Rossi

Who else do we think is going to come in on a cheap contract to center my HartTrophy winner Kaprizov? Rossi has had the time to get healthy, train, get his skates back underneath him, and he’s not ready to show why so many were shocked that he fell out of the top-10 in his draft year. (jun22)

11. Lady Byng Trophy

21/22: Kyle Connor
22/23: Mitch Marner

Marner is just as deserving as some of the other winners, and a better player overall. All it’s going to take is one season with a couple less tripping and puck-over-glass penalties and he will have it in the bag. (jun22)

12. Selke Trophy

21/22: Patrice Bergeron
22/23: Anthony Cirelli

Cirelli arguably could have won the award either of the last two years. With Bergeron uncertain to return, and Ryan O’Reilly & Aleksander Barkov cannibalizing each-others voters, Cirelli almost feels like a shoe-in this early. (jun22)

13. With the Habs having finished the last two years at either end of the spectrum, we might expect that next year is a little more boring as they finish somewhere in the middle. Again, the goaltending will dictate how far this team goes.

There are a few extra wingers at this point, and it feels like another one or two will be moved out. Mike Hoffman might benefit from a change of scenery, while I don’t think Josh Anderson could do much better than his current spot, unless he ends up in the top-six in New Jersey.

On defense, there is a spot or two to fill, especially if, as rumored, Jeff Petry is moved. On the right side, Justin Barron and Chris Wideman could be filler options for deeper fantasy leagues next year (especially if you need a low cap hit), while on the left, Alex Romanov is one of the next big multi-category studs.

It’s tough to speculate exactly what will happen with Carey Price, but it’s safe to say Jake Allen will likely be starting a lot of games for an improved team (when he’s healthy). (jun22)

14. The Flyers lineup looks mostly set for next year. They may end up moving out James van Reimsdyk‘s contract, but with 20 players already signed and $5 million in cap space, it’s not strictly necessary right away to be able to fit the rest of the roster under the cap. The team has RFAs Morgan Frost and Owen Tippett to sign, and they should be affordable on bridge deals. With that, the roster looks about full. The health of Ryan Ellis and Sean Couturier will really impactful on the direction of the season.

Perhaps the biggest change though is behind the bench. With Torts taking over, there’s some hope for the Philly goaltenders, and coach favourite Cam Atkinson. Overall though, good luck sorting out which players are going to see a bump from the new coach. (jun22)

15. Looking at future lines, who is the #1 center in Columbus next year? Whoever it is should be flanked by two of Patrik Laine, Jakub Voracek, and Oliver Bjorkstrand, on top of likely playing with all three (and Zach Werenski) on the top power play unit. Between Cole Sillinger, Kent Johnson, Alex Texier, and Jack Roslovic, it’s really anyone’s guess at this point. (jun22)

16. The Canucks signed undrafted free agent Andrei Kuzmenko. Dobber gave us his take on the signing here. Regardless of my thoughts, it's a good low-risk signing that bubble teams like Vancouver need to take. (jun21)

17. Don't forget! Unrestricted Free Agency opens July 13 and the NHL Entry Draft is July 7. (jun20)

18. Jakub Vrana was enjoying a breakout season that saw him about to hit 30 goals and 62 points before COVID cut him off at 69 games back in 2020-21. He was traded to Detroit over a year ago, but spent most of that time out with a shoulder injury that required surgery. In 37 games with the Red Wings he has 21 goals and 30 points (seven on the power play). Before his surgery, he briefly showed chemistry with Filip Zadina, but the two never really got going this year. How he does moving forward depends greatly on who Detroit’s next coach will be. They also need a scoring centerman – Pius Suter doesn’t cut it. Zadina on the other wing is fine, but he’s a shooter too. I just don’t see a line clicking with two shoot-first guys and a mediocre pivot.

Put Jonatan Berggren, an elite set-up man, on that line and Vrana could really take off. But again, the Wings need a center too. Evgeni Malkin, Claude Giroux and Nazem Kadri would make the biggest impact and would take Vrana from being a 62-point player to pushing well into the 70s. Because a 62-point player is what he is. He was on pace for that in his breakout year, and he’s been almost exactly on that pace since then. I think the line of Tyler Bertuzzi, Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond remains intact, so Vrana gets the leftovers. In this case, Vrana owners better hope those leftovers include one of the above free agents at center, and prospect Berggren on the other wing. (jun20)

19. Anthony Mantha, the guy who was traded for Vrana, how fitting. In reality, he hasn’t actually done anything yet. The guy will be 28 in the fall and he’s never had 49 points in a season. But, when we’re talking about forwards who are 6-5, drafted in the first round and tore it up at other levels, I’m never surprised if they surge at this age. And – take a look – his career games played is 353. That’s just 47 away from his Breakout Threshold.

First of all, I don’t believe he stays healthy. I think an expectation of 70 games is generous, but let’s go with that. I can see him posting 30 points in the first 50 games, and then 20 in his last 20, giving him his first 50-point season. Injuries have likely eroded his longer-term upside, so I doubt we see him ever reach 70. But I think he can get close. It would come down to how many games he can string together. I consider him a cautious ‘buy’ with lowered expectations. He’ll set a career high this year, but probably only barely. (jun20)

20. I’m always hesitant to put a cap on a player who has overachieved the way Tanner Jeannot has. He was a mediocre scorer in junior who, as over-agers do, really blossomed in the WHL as a 20-year-old who was eligible to play in the AHL but chose not to. At first, he transitioned poorly to pro hockey, splitting time between the AHL and ECHL. But in 2020-21 he really took off. And when the Predators called him up they had trouble sending him back down. And now this season he scored 24 goals, added 130 PIM and 318 Hits. That’s incredible roto-league value.

His S% was 14.5% in his final WHL season, was 15.1% in the AHL, and over 26% in the eight ECHL games that he played. So while his 19.7% in his NHL career is concerning, it’s not too much out of whack. I think his numbers are sustainable. I just don’t see the upside for too much more. I figure he will up his shot volume, but balance that with his S% slipping to 15% or 16%, his goal totals should hover around mid- or low-20s. With better linemates, he could bump his assists and reach 50 points. But as long as he’s alongside Colton Sissons and Yakov Trenin, he’s probably not getting there. And why would the Preds break up that trio? They had 700 Hits last season between them (697 to be exact). (jun20)

21. Jesper Bratt – I was asked if I thought his point-per-game pace was a one-off. No it was not. Bratt is the real deal and to me he is the key to what finally got Jack Hughes going. Every line Bratt was placed on got a jump start. He made Andreas Johnsson a first-quarter star (don’t forget Johnsson led the Devils in scoring early on) and Dawson Mercer and early Calder candidate. Everything Bratt touches is gold. And no, the Devils will not trade him.

I do think Bratt is an injury risk. He just played 76 games but unless I see that again I consider him a 70-game (or low 70s) player. But at close to a point-per game I think high-60s is a done deal. And if he can play 80 games, then topping last year’s number will be a near-certainty. I’ll go one further – if Hughes can also stay healthy, then Bratt will clear 80. For what it’s worth, last season was Bratt’s BT season. (jun20)

Have a good week, folks – stay safe!!

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