Top 10 ‘Long-Term’ Players That Didn’t Make the Guide

Tom Collins

2022-08-08

Each year, I pen a column for Dobber’s Fantasy Hockey Guide (get this year’s guide here), focusing on 20 non-rookie players who won’t do much this year but will be awesome in a couple of years. 

When I start writing a column like this, I usually come up with a list of 50ish names and start whittling it down to the 20 you see in the guide. However, there are still plenty of names that would qualify, so consider this a sneak peek into the guide. 

The thing with this kind of column is that it takes a few years to know how successful it’s been. When I wrote a similar column for the 2018-19 guide, there were some misses (Aaron Dell and Josh Ho-Sang probably being the biggest ones) and some who peaked that very season (Max Domi and Alex DeBrincat). However, most of them panned out if you were patient (some names that were included were Pavel Buchnevich, Jakob Chychrun, Joel Eriksson Ek, Philip Grubauer, Travis Konecny, Anthony Mantha, Timo Meier, Juuse Saros and Dylan Strome). There are also a couple of players we’re still waiting on (Jesse Puljujarvi and Pavel Zacha). That’s a pretty decent success rate and was probably one of my most successful endeavors for the column. 

Below are a bonus 10 players that didn’t make this year's guide. 

10. Alex Formenton

Dobber covered Formenton in a ramblings in late July (I’ll let you read those ramblings for more details), but that is why I was hesitant to add Formenton to the guide. For now, let’s concentrate solely on the on-ice product. Formenton is that pesky Sens player that all of a sudden has turned into a multi-cat beast. Last season, he finished with 59 PIM, 101 Hits and 2.1 shots per game. However, acquiring Claude Giroux and Alex DeBrincat will keep Formenton in a bottom-six role for at least a couple of years. 

9. Nicolas Roy

It is rare for a player to break out in their late 20s, but that’s the road that Roy seems to be heading toward. His numbers have been improving each season, but he has only played 163 career NHL games as a 25-year-old. Last year, he had 15 goals, 39 points, 51 PIM, 145 shots, 85 hits, five power-play points and 454 faceoff wins, so he contributes a little bit everywhere. Roy bounced around the lineup last year due to all the injuries in Vegas, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if he were a regular top-six forward within a couple of seasons. 

8. Victor Soderstrom

One of the easiest ways to find players who may break out in a few years is to look at disappointing players who were on potential rookie breakthrough lists two or three years ago. If there are solid reasons behind why a player may not be living up to expectations, then that player can be a good candidate for a later breakout. Soderstrom had zero points in 16 games last season, not what you want to see from an offensive defenseman. However, since the team is giving Shayne Gostisbehere and Jakob Chychrun all the offensive zone starts and minutes, there’s not much left for Soderstrom. Gostisbehere is a free agent next summer, while Chychrun might be traded any day now. If those two are gone, that leaves Soderstrom as the favorite for the top power-play time and offensive zone starts. 

7. Brandon Hagel

The Lightning have already made several moves to get under the cap (losing Ondrej Palat to free agency and Ryan McDonagh in trade). This gives the 23-year-old Hagel a chance for a spot in a top-six role, maybe as early as this season (which is why I couldn’t fully recommend he would be non-fantasy relevant for this season). If he’s not in the top-six this year, it won’t be long until he is. In 77 games last year, he finished with 25 goals, 44 points, 125 shots, 63 hits and six power-play points. 

6. Sean Durzi

The 23-year-old Durzi had a surprise rookie season last year, in the sense that he wasn’t supposed to be in the NHL at all. But injuries to Drew Doughty forced the team to call him up. Durzi played so well that the Kings decided to waive Kale Clague. Now that Doughty is back this season, it will put Durzi back on the second unit (at best) and the second power-play unit. He was a beast in multi-cat leagues last year, contributing in PIM, hits and blocked shots. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him considered a disappointment by the end of this season, but in a few years, he will be excellent. 

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5. Alex Tuch

We’re probably one more season away from his true breakout season, but he’s going to be much better this season than many expect. Last year, Tuch had an 82-game pace of 62 points. That was a career high. Buffalo is still rebuilding, but another year of progression from Tage Thompson, Peyton Krebs, Dylan Cozens and Casey Mittelstadt will help. Also having rookies such as Owen Power, Jack Quinn and J.J. Peterka play this year and be great in a few years will also benefit Tuch down the line. 

4. Kirby Dach

There’s a very good chance that Dach will cap out as a third-line centre, but there’s also a good chance that he can be a top-six player. Although his numbers weren’t great last year, he did post career highs in goals, assists, points, shots per game, hits per game, power-play points, blocked shots and faceoff wins. At 6’4, he won’t reach his breakout threshold until he reaches game 400. He’s at 152 games played now, so we’re still three-plus seasons away. 

3. Jordan Greenway

At 6-6 and 231 pounds, he is one of the largest players in the league. Like the aforementioned Nicolas Roy, Greenway could be another player that won’t fully break out until his late 20s. Despite being 25 years old, he’s only played 272 career games, so it’s still another two seasons before he hits his breakout threshold. He’s already becoming a great peripheral stat filler, last year posting per-game career highs in PIM (1.11), shots (1.77) and hits (2.5). 

2. Cole Sillinger

I kept Sillinger out of the list in the guide because he comes with a big caveat. If he plays on the top line and top power-play unit with Johnny Gaudreau, he’s going to have his big breakout season this year. If he’s still down the lineup and receives little power-play time, he will have to wait another couple of years for his breakout season. He has the potential to be the next great power forward, as he can score while picking up PIM, hits and faceoff wins. 

1. Cal Petersen

I had three netminders in my top 20 in the guide, and Petersen just narrowly missed the list. His save percentage numbers took a significant step back last year, but he did finish with a 20-14-2 record with three shutouts. The Kings will continue to go with Petersen and Jonathan Quick (a UFA next summer) in net this season, but the Kings have one of the best prospects system in the league. As they get better and the team improves, Petersen will be the one to reap the rewards. Petersen is signed for three more years at $5 million per season, so the odds of a team bringing in another goalie to be the number one netminder is low unless Petersen proves he can’t handle the top duties. 

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