Welcome back to Puck Picks! As this is Week 1 of the NHL season, I'll review exactly what you should expect in this weekly column. Each Thursday, I'll be breaking down some of my favorite NHL bets. The goal isn't just to share picks, but to explain the why behind them, helping you recognize similar value spots on your own throughout the season. I'll be tracking every pick transparently in this column, logging units won and lost as the year progresses. I'll also point out trends worth watching, like shot attempt surges, role changes, and evolving power play usage, so you can anticipate market shifts before they happen.

Expect a mix of different bet types. I let the provided sportsbook odds guide exactly which bets I take. You can expect shot props, point props, team shot props, goalie saves, some moneylines here and there, with occasional futures updates and educational breakdowns of betting concepts. The goal is long-term profitability and smart, disciplined wagering — not chasing parlays or short-term spikes.

Early in the year, I tend to focus on volume-based props (like shot totals) and correlated point plays through SGPs. Lines are still adjusting to new combinations, ice-time distributions, and systems, which means there's usually value before the market fully corrects.

Brady Tkachuk – 4+ Shots on Goal (+105, 1u) and 6+ Shots (+475, 0.1u)

No surprise here. We're starting the season with a volume monster. Brady Tkachuk led the NHL in shots per game last season and picked up right where he left off this preseason, recording 10+ shot attempts in both games and averaging 5.5 shots on goal. I don't love using preseason to guide my in-season betting, but this is a good sign that Brady Tkachuk is not planning to change his play this season. He is still going to fire the puck at the net, even if his shooting percentage stays below 10%. Tkachuk also had 5 shots on goal in each of the 3 games he played against Tampa Bay last season.

This is exactly the kind of early-season prop worth attacking — proven shot volume, elite usage, and a player whose price is too conservative for the books (last season near the end, his line was at o/u4.5 rather than the current 3.5).

The 4+ shots at plus money feels like a great straight bet, and I'm sprinkling the 6+ for a bit of ceiling exposure at +475 if Brady continues to fire 10 shot attempts tonight.

Alexis Lafreniere – 2+ Shots (-115, 1.1u) / 3+ Shots (+275, 0.3u)

Lafrenière opened the season with six shots on six attempts, showing improved decisiveness and confidence in the offensive zone. Yes, the 100% shot accuracy will regress, but it's encouraging that all attempts came from quality areas near the crease rather than low-percentage perimeter plays. The Rangers are disappointed in their first showing getting shut out by Arturs Silovs but they'll be happy to have Lafreniere continue to generate chances.

At nearly even money, the 2+ shot prop is really not considering his game 1 performance. He had a down year in shot volume last year and it looks like he's ready to fire the puck again. Take advantage of this lag in odds as Lafreniere could see his 3+ shots get to -115 rather than his 2+ prop as the season goes on.

SGP: Marco Rossi & Kirill Kaprizov 1+ Point Each (+170, 0.5u)

In my introduction article I cautioned against parlays and same-game parlays (SGP) as the books make most of their money on these by increasing their house edge. However, this is the type of SGP I love – highly correlated scoring events with fair odds. Rossi is starting the year on the top line at even strength. This makes Rossi's individual point line at +115 already have standalone value. But if he does end up getting a point, there's a strong chance Kaprizov is involved. We'll take the increased odds at +170 to add this correlated event to the Rossi point prop.

This is where a Same Game Parlay makes sense — when one player's success is directly linked to that of the other. As the season goes on, books usually tighten these correlated lines, so these early +170 spots are worth targeting before that happens.

SGP: Jack Hughes & Jesper Bratt 1+ Point Each (+135, 1u)

Another correlated parlay built on elite offensive connection. Hughes and Bratt play together at both even strength and on New Jersey's top power play, which is one of the most explosive in hockey. Both individual point props (-175 and -145) are actually great value early in the season here, but pairing them for +135 gives you access to better overall value with a high probability of both contributing in the same scoring sequences. This line was usually around +100 when Hughes and Bratt were cooking in mid-season form. This is one of those SGPs I'll likely keep going back to until the line moves back toward +100.

Parlay: No Power Play Points for Theodore, Landeskog, Bunting, and Rossi (-164, 1.5u)

Again, I mentioned previously that in the long-run, parlays may not be necessary and could hurt your bankroll as the books don't tend to give fair value. But this parlay isn't the long-shot dart throw at +10000, it is a reasonable -164 parlay with actual fair odds (checking with Action Networks betting calculator). This one's about role awareness. All four players are currently on their team's second power-play units, and the gap in opportunity between PP1 and PP2 on all these teams is large. We took advantage of Theodore and Landeskog already and we're going right back to them as their odds have barely shifted. Although Rossi is tied to Kaprizov at even strength, he is left off PP1 for Vladimir Tarasenko. Michael Bunting has not had a sniff on PP1 in preseason and may only get 20% of the PPTOI tonight.

Theodore and Landeskog's odds for no PPP should be priced closer to the -1000 range that Bunting and Rossi already sit near. Combining them into one parlay gives us strong implied value. I also looked at Brandan Hagel, Timo Meier, Thomas Harley, and Jackson Blake as potential add-ons for a similar "no PPP" angle, but I don't want to get too greedy adding in 7 different events in one parlay. PP2s still do score! Just not very often.

Winnipeg Jets – team shots u28.5 (-118, 2u)

Team shots were my best bet type last season, and I am excited to get back to my bread and butter. I was hoping to wait a week or two to see how shot trends settle in, but I think this line is valuable on both these team's first game. This line is heavily relying on the Stars' numbers from the second half of last season, where they were bottom 10 in the league in shots and shot attempts against. They were getting caved in to end the season. Dallas, with new coach Greg Gulutzan should be able to turn things around, especially in their first game of the season. Also, looking back to this matchup last year, Winnipeg's shots for were 25, 27, 22, and 35 in the four games against Dallas, with that 35 coming very late in the season when Dallas was near the bottom in the league in shot suppression play. I believe we'll have a pretty low event game with both teams hovering around 25 shots.

I'll update this column each Thursday with new picks, tracking everything transparently over the season.

Please remember to gamble responsibly — and never wager more than you're willing to lose.

You can follow me on X (@fantasycheddar) for more daily insights, live picks, and ongoing analysis throughout the season.