Welcome back to Puck Picks! Each Thursday, I break down some of my favorite NHL bets, explain the reasoning behind them, and track performance transparently. The goal of this column isn't just to share picks, but to help you recognize why certain spots have value so you can identify them throughout the season. I'll be tracking every pick transparently in this column, logging units won and lost as the year progresses.

Last week, we went 3-5, for a net of -1.84 units. Got hooked big by Jack Hughes leaving early, but that possibility is always baked into the odds when you take overs. Overall, that brings the season record to 66–59 for +8.29 units. Let's see if we can rebound with a nice night before the Olympic break! Let's get into the picks.

Egor Chinakhov 2+ Shots (-150, 1.5u) | 3+ Shots (+205, 0.4u)

We hit Chinakhov's point prop last week and he continues to trend upward. He has five goals and seven points over his past seven games and is averaging three shots on goal per game over his last five. More importantly, he is converting 68% of his shot attempts into shots on goal over that span, showing he is being selective rather than simply throwing pucks at the net. With his ice time continuing to climb well above 15 minutes per night and his confidence clearly growing, Chinakhov should remain aggressive in looking for shooting chances.

Roman Josi 1+ Point (-155, 1.4u)

Josi has been on an incredible run, posting 21 points over his last 12 games with only two scoreless performances in that span. His ice time has increased significantly, now sitting well above 28 minutes per night, and he continues to be the primary driver of Nashville's offense. Notably, this hot streak began with a three-point performance against Washington 12 games ago. Given his current role and production, this line should be priced much closer to Rasmus Dahlin at -210 or Darren Raddysh at -200. Look for him to find success against the Capitals again.

SGP: Matthew Schaefer 1+ Point (+100) & 2+ Shots (-200) (+163, 0.7u)

Schaefer is averaging 5.4 shot attempts per game over his last five and draws a strong matchup against New Jersey, a team that allows more shots to defensemen than to forwards. He is also riding a hot streak with five points in his last five games while skating over 24 minutes per night. In more than 70% of Schaefer's games with a point, he has also recorded at least two shots on goal. These two props are highly correlated, making this a strong SGP option.

Linus Ullmark Under 21.5 Saves (-110, 1.3u)

Philadelphia has failed to reach 23 shots on goal in 10 of their past 14 games and ranks fourth worst in shots per 60 at even strength over their last 10 contests. Ottawa presents the opposite profile, ranking first in the league in limiting shots against at even strength over that same span. Senators opponents have cleared 22 shots just three times in their last 10 games. Expect Ottawa to control possession, dominate CF%, and significantly limit Philadelphia's opportunities to put pucks on net. Even if he has a good game in net, Ullmark is unlikely to see enough shots against to get to 22 saves.

Nashville Predators 30+ Team Shots (+280, 0.8u)

Nashville has been playing in some high-volume shooting games lately. They rank third in the league in shots per 60 at even strength over their last 10 games and have reached 30 or more shots in half of those contests. Washington is a tougher defensive opponent, but even in games where they control the shot battle, the overall pace can still push both teams into the 30+ range. This sets up as a spot where Nashville does not need to dominate possession to clear this number. At +280, the price is simply too generous for a team generating this level of recent shot volume, making it well worth taking a swing here.

Team Shot Under Parlay (+547, 0.126u)

Los Angeles Kings Under 26.5 Team Shots | New York Rangers Under 24.5 Team Shots | Philadelphia Flyers Under 24.5 Team Shots

This parlay targets three teams that are all in difficult spots to generate volume, all of whom are near the bottom of the league in shot generation at even strength over their past 10 games. Los Angeles draws a matchup that naturally suppresses shot totals, as their Vegas consistently controls possession and limits attempts against. The Kings have also been far less aggressive in shot volume lately, 3rd worst in the league over their past 10, making 27 shots a tall ask in this spot.

The Rangers continue to struggle driving offense. They have been trending toward the bottom of the league in shot generation, and when they lose the possession battle, their shot totals fall off quickly. They are 2nd worst in the league in shot generation over their last 10 games.

Philadelphia rounds out the parlay as one of the weakest shot-generating teams in the league. They are consistently failing to reach the mid-20s in shots, particularly against structured opponents that control pace. As explained in the Ullmark prop above, the Flyers will have a tough time generating shots on goal against a stingy Ottawa team.

At +547, this parlay embraces variance with a small unit size, but each leg is supported by current shot-generation trends and matchup dynamics that point toward another low-volume night.

Good luck if you're tailing! As always, results will be updated in next Thursday's column for full transparency. Please gamble responsibly and never wager more than you're willing to lose.

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