Saturday’s Picks: McDavid to Bite the Sharks

Flip Livingstone

2026-02-28

The dust has settled on what has clearly been a wild few weeks for hockey fans across North America. It's time to get back to betting business with a stacked Saturday of 13 games across the NHL. Sure, the pace might be a bit slower and passes less crisp, but the fact remains with the trade deadline looming and playoff races tightening, we're about to bear witness to what is sure to be some intense hockey action on a nightly basis. That starts with today and our top-three breakdowns and side bets below. Good luck and let's get this paper.

Updated 2025-26 Saturday Record (Daily Record Tracked/Posted @Flips_Picks):
Gold: 6-6
Silver: 6-6
Bronze: 8-4
Side Bets: 15-19

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Gold Selection
Edmonton Oilers @ San Jose Sharks – Pick: Connor McDavid 2+ Points

To say Connor McDavid has been on another level over the past two months would be an all-time understatement. McJesus has been operating in full god mode — 24 goals and 40 assists over his last 33 games — and now walks into one of his favorite playgrounds. Edmonton has owned San Jose to the tune of a 9-1-0 run in the last 10 meetings, and stylistically this is a nightmare matchup for the Sharks. San Jose simply cannot contain speed through the neutral zone, and that's a death sentence against a player who turns routine zone entries into Grade-A looks. The Sharks are bleeding chances off the rush and continue to sit near the bottom of the league in goals-against per game. The Oilers' offense seems to be heating up in a big way coming off an eight-piece against the L.A. Kings.

The power play is clicking again, and when Edmonton gets multiple opportunities with the man advantage, McDavid almost always finds himself on the scoresheet — often more than once. History also backs this play. McDavid enters this one with 18 goals and 34 assists in just 34 career regular-season games against San Jose — better than a point-and-a-half per game clip. When the matchup, form, and historical dominance all line up like this, we don't overthink it.

Gold-tier confidence. McDavid should eat.

Silver Selection
Ottawa Senators @ Toronto Maple Leafs – Pick: Senators ML

If the last two games were any indication of where Toronto is headed, the warning lights are glaring.

Back-to-back flat performances against division rivals in South Florida exposed a Leafs team that suddenly looks fragile defensively and disconnected offensively. For a club built on skill and scoring punch, sliding out of the top half of the league in goals per game is a massive red flag — especially this late in the season.

This is a situational play. Ottawa comes in 5-2 over its last seven and has quietly played structured, disciplined hockey. They've also had success in this building, going 6-3 in their last nine trips to Toronto. The Senators forecheck has been aggressive lately, and against a Leafs blue line that has struggled under pressure, that's a formula that can tilt possession quickly. Toronto's power play has cooled, the five-on-five scoring has dried up, and when this team doesn't get an early lead, the body language shifts. Ottawa, coming off a tight one-goal loss to the Detroit Red Wings, should enter motivated and focused.

This isn't about Ottawa being elite. It's about Toronto looking vulnerable.

Bronze Selection
Vancouver Canucks @ Seattle Kraken – Pick: Kraken ML

This one is simple. Vancouver is spiraling — and it's no longer a small sample narrative. Sitting dead last in the league with 43 points, carrying a bloated 3.64 goals-against per game (worst in the NHL), and showing zero defensive structure, the Canucks have become a team you actively look to fade. The forward group looks disconnected, the defensive coverage has been chaotic, and the goaltending carousel hasn't provided stability. Two wins in their last 20 games tells you everything you need to know about where this team is mentally.

Seattle, meanwhile, isn't flashy — but it's balanced. The Kraken roll four lines, defend responsibly, and play a structured system that punishes teams that cheat for offense. They currently hold down the second wild-card spot in the Western Conference for a reason. History leans Seattle's way as well, with Vancouver managing just three wins in the last 11 meetings between the clubs. This isn't about star power. It's about structure versus dysfunction.

Side Bets
Ottawa Senators @ Toronto Maple Leafs – Pick: Over 6.5
Buffalo Sabres @ Tampa Bay Lightning – Pick: Lightning PL -1.5
Edmonton Oilers @ San Jose Sharks – Pick: Over 6.5

Flip Livingstone is an NHL betting expert, fantasy writer, and daily podcast host with the Locked On Fantasy Hockey pod. He also has experience at outlets such as theScore NHL, Postmedia, and Hockey Night in Canada. You can follow him @Flips_Picks.

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