Welcome back to Puck Picks! Each Thursday, I break down some of my favorite NHL bets, explain the reasoning behind them, and track performance transparently. The goal of this column isn't just to share picks, but to help you recognize why certain spots have value so you can identify them throughout the season. I'll be tracking every pick transparently in this column, logging units won and lost as the year progresses.

In the last article, we went 3-5, for a net of -2.08 units. Cutter Gauthier decided to stop shooting the puck against a team that lets up the highest amount of shots against – it happens. Overall, that brings the season record to 78–67 for +17.96 units. The average bet return is 6.5%. Let's see if we can get in the win column tonight! Let's dive into the picks:

Anthony Cirelli 1+ point (-111, 1.1u)

Cirelli has recently been elevated into a prime role alongside Nikita Kucherov and Brandon Hagel at even strength. After exploding for eight points in three games, he's cooled off with back-to-back pointless outings, which has brought his line back down to a more typical price. The key here is that his situation hasn't changed; he’s still skating with elite talent. Tampa Bay's top line continues to drive play at a strong clip, controlling possession and generating high-danger looks. With that deployment intact, this price is too low for a player attached to Kucherov at even strength.

Darren Raddysh 3+ shots (-150, 0.9u)

Ladder: 4+ (+162, 0.5u) | 5+ (+340, 0.3u) | Goal (+350, 0.3u)

Raddysh has returned to letting shots fly, averaging five shots on goal per game over his last five contests. With Victor Hedman taking a leave of absence, Raddysh is firmly in the role of Tampa Bay's primary offensive defenseman. He's seeing premium usage and, more importantly, is benefiting from Kucherov's elite playmaking ability. Seattle also ranks lower in shots allowed to defenseman relative to their ranking of shots allowed to forwards this season. The volume is clearly there, and with this many opportunities, especially from high-quality setups from Kucherov, the goal prop at +350 carries strong value as part of the ladder.

Team Shot Under Parlay (+285, 1u): Pittsburgh Penguins under 26.5, Winnipeg Jets under 26.5

Both teams are in difficult matchups from a possession and shot-generation standpoint.

Ottawa has allowed the fewest shots against in the league this season and has been even better over their last 25 games, giving up fewer than 22 shots against per 60 at even strength. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, sits below a 50% Corsi For share, consistently being out-attempted by opponents. This sets up as a game where Ottawa controls possession and limits Pittsburgh's ability to generate volume.

Winnipeg faces a similar challenge against Colorado. Over their last 10 games, the Avalanche rank second in the league in Corsi For percentage, while the Jets continue to operate below a 50% share. Colorado should dictate play and keep Winnipeg pinned in their own zone for extended stretches, making it difficult for the Jets to reach this number.

New Jersey Devils over 28.5 team shots (-110, 1u)

New Jersey has quietly been one of the best shot-generation teams in the league recently, ranking second in shots-for per 60 over their last 10 games. They've cleared this 29.5 line in eight of those contests, consistently pushing pace and volume. Nashville, on the other hand, ranks third worst in shots against per 60 over that same span. With New Jersey's ability to sustain pressure and Nashville's struggles in suppressing shots, this is a strong spot for the Devils to once again push past 30 shots.

Dylan Holloway + Robert Thomas 1+ point SGP (+110, 1u)

Holloway and Thomas have developed strong chemistry alongside Jimmy Snuggerud since the Olympic break: Holloway has recorded 15 points in 13 games, while Thomas has 13 over that span. Thomas is the primary driver and facilitator, consistently creating chances for his line mates, and a large portion of those have been finished by Holloway. Their connection has been more frequent than with Snuggerud, making this duo the most efficient way to capture the line's production. Against a San Jose team allowing the most goals in the league in March, this remains strong value.

Jimmy Snuggerud Goal (+255, 0.5u)

Snuggerud can't be left out in this matchup. He's averaging over four individual scoring chances per game and leads this Blues trio with six goals since the Olympic break. While Thomas drives the line, Snuggerud has been a primary finisher. Against a Sharks team that continues to bleed goals, this is a strong opportunity for him to convert one of his chances.

Adin Hill under 23.5 saves (-115, 1.5u)

Hill draws a favorable matchup against an Edmonton team that ranks fifth-worst in shot attempts for per 60 over their last 10 games. While the Oilers still possess elite scoring talent, they are capable of converting chances without generating high shot volume. Vegas further strengthens this angle, ranking first in the league in shots against at just 20.4 per 60 at even strength over their last 10 games. This projects as a lower-volume game where Hill may not see enough pucks to threaten this number.

Good luck if you're tailing! As always, results will be updated in next Thursday's column for full transparency. Please gamble responsibly and never wager more than you're willing to lose.

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