Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, and Dobber

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1. The Buffalo Sabres did the expected on Friday, selecting defenseman Owen Power with the first overall pick at the 2021 NHL Draft. For more on Power, you can view his Dobber Prospects profile.

Fellow Michigan alum Matthew Beniers was the second overall pick and first-ever entry draft pick in Seattle Kraken history. Mason McTavish was the first surprise of the draft, getting picked third overall by the Ducks.

Another storyline with the fourth overall pick, as Luke Hughes joined his brother Jack Hughes on the Devils. The Canucks fan in me hopes that Quinn Hughes does not request a trade to New Jersey. A lot of hockey talent in this living room.

Perhaps my favorite not only because he’s from my neck of the woods but also because he’s such a highlight-reel machine, Kent Johnson was selected by the Blue Jackets.

I’ll leave analysis of the rest of the picks to our new Journey writer, Hadi Kalakeche. Check out his first-round recap. (jul24)

2. Rounding up some key trade analysis consummated on Draft weekend:

– It seemed as if someone was going to overpay for Rasmus Ristolainen and Mike promptly provided his Fantasy Take on this deal.

– Just as the Sabres seemed to receive quite a return for Ristolainen, it seemed as though the Rangers didn’t receive enough for Pavel Buchnevich. Mike also had you covered for the Fantasy Take on that deal.

– Then the Canucks and Coyotes made an interesting deal, where Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Conor Garland went to the Canucks.You can read a lot more about it on my Fantasy Take.

– But wait, there’s more. The Seth Jones trade finally happened, with the Blackhawks picking him up for Adam Boqvist. A busy guy on Friday, Mike gave you another Fantasy Take. 

– Columbus wasn’t finished adding young defensemen, picking up Jake Bean. Yep, another Fantasy Take from Mike. These things don't write themselves, so amazing work from him. (jul24)

– Day 2 of the Draft was a little quieter in terms of trades, but there were still two deals that could be of consequence to fantasy owners. First, the Cam Atkinson for Jakub Voracek swap, Fantasy Take here. And secondly: One team that is oozing with fantasy goodness is the Florida Panthers. They added Sam Reinhart to that group in the day's other major trade, which was first leaked by the hockey insiders late Friday night but not formally completed until Saturday; Fantasy Take here, as well. (jul25)

5. Mike also wrote about both the Shayne Gostisbehere trade and the acquisition of Alex Nedeljkovic made earlier last week. Still kind of shocked Seattle hasn’t done more yet? Walking away from the Expansion Draft with that roster is… interesting. (jul23)

7. One of the big sagas of the summer will be where Jack Eichel ends up. It seems clear at this point that the fracture between the player and team is just too severe to mend. Where he ends up and what the trade looks like is down the line, and it seems we may be further away from that than we think:

Wrote reporter Larry Brooks @NYP_Brooksie: As speculation re Eichel mounts, can tell you that Rangers have still not received access to his medical records from Sabres. So, there is nothing close at this point.

If teams don’t even have access to Eichel’s medical records, he’s not going anywhere. It’d be like buying a house without inspection. (Actually, that’s a bad example, given the absolute insanity that is North American housing markets since the start of the pandemic, but that’s for another day.) Whatever the final deal ends up being, it’s going to be a monster. For that reason, we should probably go about our days instead of wondering when or where Eichel will be traded.

I don’t know what is going on behind the scenes, but the longer this drags out, the worse the return is going to be for Eichel. Most teams will have no fewer contracts or more cap space than they do right now. Waiting a month or so could only complicate things for some teams and push some competitors out of the Eichel market. The Sabres want as big a market as possible. They need to start getting this ball rolling. (jul23)

8. The Seattle Kraken officially rounded out their roster, in most regards, with the Expansion Draft on Wednesday night. The thing is, a lot of the picks were leaked all throughout the day on Twitter.  I want to talk about some of these selections because there were some intriguing ones.

Despite some potential leaks around social media, Frank Seravalli, formerly of TSN and now of DFO, confirmed that it wouldn’t be Alex Kerfoot being taken by Seattle from Toronto, but rather Jared McCann. It always made more sense to take the better, younger, controlled player, and here we are.

Of course, this is a big loss for the Leafs, even if McCann wasn’t in the lineup last year. He could have been an immediate replacement for Zach Hyman, could be used as a third-line center, and is very good on the power play. These are all things the Leafs need, and they lost them all because they wanted to protect Justin Holl. We will see if it’s worth it. (jul22)

6. Yanni Gourde is the pick everyone talks about, but it’s funny how this works, right? He had a huge 64-point season in his rookie year, but only posted 78 points in his next 150 games. Some people in the fantasy realm had given up on him. Then he posts 36 in 56 regular season games this year (a 53-point pace) with seven in 23 postseason games, and all of a sudden he’s a name to know in the fantasy realm again.

While I share the sentiment that he’s an excellent player, I am just dubious that he rockets up to instant 60- to 70-point status immediately. There isn’t a ton of scoring here, and even in a weak division, if he’s in a checking-ish role with Joonas Donskoi and Calle Jarnkrok, instead of in a scoring role with Jared McCann and Jordan Eberle, it wildly changes how we should view him as a fantasy asset.

If we can get 55 points, two shots per game, and a hit per game from Gourde, that should be considered a successful season. I will wait until I do projections in September, but I may be lower on him than others. (jul23)

9. Seattle shored up what very well could be their top pair. It leaked that they had selected and signed Adam Larsson and Jamie Oleksiak, the latter to a five-year, $4.6M AAV deal and former to a 4x$4M. Both players are effectively the same guy: defense-first defensemen that can be relied upon for at least top-4 minutes.

Neither is that old with Oleksiak and Larsson turning 29 in December and November, respectively. Having these guys around for a few years while the team rounds itself out isn’t a bad idea. Keep in mind that Larsson put up nearly 300 hits+blocks in 56 games this year playing 19:39 a night, while Oleksiak was just under 260 in 56 games playing nearly 20:30 a night. What kind of peripherals do these guys have if they are each playing 22-23 minutes a night? Keep them in mind, multi-cat leaguers. (jul22)

10. Alex True was the selection from San Jose. I thought they might go with Dylan Gambrell, but I like the pick of True here. He is a 6-foot-5 center with a good set of hands and that combination is rare. He needs more work on his game to round out, so maybe he has an outside shot at a regular roster spot this year. But honestly, I would wait another year. It just feels like he needs a bit more development. (jul22)

11. The Islanders are going to lose Jordan Eberle, and that feels like a big loss. Granted, Oliver Wahlstrom should be a big beneficiary here, but it’s still a loss for the team. Eberle was either first or second on the team in goals and points in the regular season over the last two years at 5-on-5 and he had 25 points in 41 playoff contests in that span. Maybe Wahlstrom can do what he does, but is there someone readily available to replace Wahlstrom? That’s the gambit. (jul22)

12. Mark Giordano was the pick from Calgary. I think that makes sense. He is still a good player, he is an instant locker room leader for an expansion team, and he can be traded for a handsome return at the trade deadline. Like I mentioned in my Ramblings a couple days ago, this team is probably going to have a very good defense corps but a little thin up front. The trades over the next eight months will start to solidify the forward group. (jul22)

13. I’ve updated the 2021 Free Agent Contract Projections just in time for free agency to open. Feel free to either drop comments just below the ranking at the bottom of that Ramblings page, or find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean. (jul21)

14. It wouldn’t be an NHL offseason if I didn’t spend a few hundred words talking about Frank Vatrano. I have probably spent a few thousand words on him every offseason since 2016.

Vatrano just finished his worst production season in Florida, despite the Panthers being a great team. With Carter Verhaege/Anthony Duclair on the top line, and Jonathan Huberdeau/Patric Hornqvist frequently on the second line, Vatrano largely remained on the third line, despite the team losing both Mike Hoffman and Evgenii Dadonov. In fact, despite the team losing two of their top-6 wingers in the offseason, Vatrano had a three-year low in TOI. It would seem Florida is in their Cup window and they may add even more pieces this summer, so he could see even less ice time in 2021-22.

The reason we love Vatrano here are his rates. Over the last three years, Vatrano’s shot attempt rate is inside the 90^th percentile of NHLers (comparable to Tyler Seguin) and his hit rate is inside the 75^th percentile. If he were ever to play a full season at about 18 minutes a night, he genuinely has 30-goal, 150-hit, 250-shot upside. Those are massive, massive totals in multi-cat leagues. He already had a season with 24 goals, 208 shots, and 139 hits, and that was in 2018-19 when he was playing 14:40 a night. Again, there is big fantasy upside here with 17-18 minutes a night for 80 games. There are a lot of bridges to cross before that upside is reality, but I would love to see Vatrano in a feature role. (jul20)

15. I will say I was surprised to see the Sharks actually protect Brent Burns. I think it’s the right move because that team has so much bad money that trading futures to get rid of one of them probably won’t move the needle that much. This team needs a full overhaul, and it’ll take years. No one likes to hear it, but there is some pain ahead for the next few years, Sharks fans. (jul20)

3. Kind of under the radar with all the Expansion and NHL Entry Draft news, but the Canadiens announced that Carey Price‘s knee surgery took place on Friday. He is expected to require a 10-to-12-week recovery period, which appears to be just enough time for him to return for the start of the 2021-22 season. Price keeper owners can breathe a sigh of relief, as the statements about his injury status earlier this week appeared to discourage Seattle from claiming him. (jul24)

16. Dobber's take before the Expansion Draft on Montreal leaving Carey Price unprotected: I don’t care about the injuries. They want to scare me off – good luck with that. I’m getting Seattle’s version of Marc-Andre Fleury right here and now. The face of the franchise. And I don’t care if I have to sit on him for an entire year and I don’t care about the cap hit and I don’t care about his age. In fact, the potential for a year on LTIR is even appealing. I take Price and put him on all my billboards. I pay Price his $11 million signing bonus, and I tell Marc Bergevin – “Nice try.” (jul19)

4. After a nomadic existence for the last couple years, Taylor Hall appears to have finally found a place he can call home. Hall re-signed in Boston for four years with a cap hit of $6 million. This seems like an acceptable deal for both the team and player. This shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone, but check out the turnaround on Hall’s stats from Buffalo to Boston.

Buffalo: 37 GP, 2 G, 17 A, 19 PTS, -21, 0.51 PTS/GP
Boston: 16 GP, 8 G, 6 A, 14 PTS, +15, 0.88 PTS/GP

The question is now who will be centering Hall next season, as David Krejci is set to become a UFA. (jul24)

17. Still with the Bruins, Jaroslav Halak is expected to become a free agent on July 28. Halak was demoted to third string during the playoffs behind Tuukka Rask and Jeremy Swayman, so he already did not appear to be in the Bruins’ future plans. Rask is also a UFA who will also be sidelined until the new year after hip surgery, so the Bruins will need to shop for at least one veteran goalie to help Swayman. Expect Halak to land somewhere as a veteran backup/1A. (jul18)

18. The Stars took care of business last week, signing Miro Heiskanen to an eight-year contract with an AAV of $8.45 million. Heiskanen appears to be an example of a defenseman that is more valuable in real life than in fantasy, but that’s only because he has Norris Trophy upside.

In his three NHL seasons, his highest regular-season point pace has been at a half-point per game, which has been roughly his average over the past two seasons. During the Stars’ 2020 playoff run, he finished with nearly a point per game (26 points in 27 games), so perhaps that is a glimpse of what he is capable of. As it stands now, John Klingberg averaged more power-play time (3:01 PPTOI) than Heiskanen (2:45 PPTOI) and also finished with a higher point total than Heiskanen (36 points to 27 points). (jul18)

19. The Blues have yet to find a taker for Vladimir Tarasenko and his $7.5 million cap hit and that was no different at the Expansion Draft, where they protected Ivan Barbashev instead. That means the Blues are willing to give up Tarasenko and his entire contract for nothing, which would also mean that trading Tarasenko elsewhere would probably force St. Louis to retain salary unless they are willing to sell for pennies on the dollar.

Either way, it appears that the relationship is broken to the point that Tarasenko will likely be with another team when the 2021-22 season starts. Remember that the buyer beware sign on Tarasenko isn’t just in regard to his contract. Tarasenko has undergone three shoulder surgeries and may not be the same goal-scorer he once was. With just four goals in 24 games following his return, there would be something to that. (jul18)

20. In a trade that could only be made in the NHL, the Islanders sent Andrew Ladd and picks to the Coyotes for… nothing. Not even future considerations? Of course, the benefit for the Islanders of receiving nothing is that Arizona will now take on the final two seasons of Ladd’s contract. Ladd did not play a single NHL game in 2020-21 and only played four games in 2019-20. Yet apparently Coyotes GM Bill Armstrong views Ladd as a “culture changer/leader,” meaning that he may do more than just occupy cap space. So maybe he’ll get into some games. Or the Coyotes will just pocket the picks, like they do when they lend cap space to other teams. (jul18)

21. I’m surprised I don’t receive any comments about Brady Tkachuk being ranked so high in the latest Top 100 Roto Rankings (although I’m probably inviting some by saying that). Points pace wise, his comparables in 2020-21 were teammate Josh Norris, Darnell Nurse, Brayden Schenn, and Yanni Gourde (0.64 PTS/GP). Tkachuk will only be turning 22 just before the 2021-22 season starts, but he will already be starting his fourth NHL season. Maybe we finally see a jump from the 0.62-0.64 PTS/GP he has consistently ranged between over his first three NHL seasons.

The reason Tkachuk is ranked so high in roto is not because of scoring. Peripherals are where he separates himself from the competition. Let’s start with shots, where only Auston Matthews had more shots than Tkachuk (220 SOG) in 2020-21. To put it another way, Tkachuk takes more shots than sharpshooters like Nathan MacKinnon and Connor McDavid. Maybe a few more of those shots are eventually converted to goals, but at least we know Tkachuk is a killer in that one category.

Then it’s onto hits, where only Radko Gudas delivered more hits than Tkachuk (248). Usually the names near the top of this list aren’t top-level scoring options. To put this into perspective, no player with more points than Tkachuk had more than 135 hits. He’s single-handedly going to win that category for you, particularly in shallower leagues.

As for penalty minutes, only five players had more than Tkachuk (69 PIM). Again, scoring options are harder to find near the top of this list, although Tom Wilson had nearly as many points as Tkachuk with 27 more penalty minutes. Between hits and penalty minutes, Tkachuk will take care of the bangers portion of your bangers league. Just make sure your other high picks can take care of the scoring, in case that doesn’t pick up as much as you’d like.

There are other categories where Tkachuk is not as dominant. For instance, negative double-digit plus/minus for each of his three seasons. Or no more than 10 power-play points in each of those three seasons. But if you own him, you look for other players who can help you fill those categories. Because he’ll win you the other categories that I’ve identified. (jul18)

Have a good week, folks – be safe!!

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