Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean and Dobber

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1. Alexis Lafreniere was made a healthy scratch last Thursday with Sammy Blais re-entering the Rangers lineup for a more physical presence. Lafreniere hasn’t been terrible this season, but a 39-point pace is only a modest improvement from last season. Lafreniere has been held without a goal in his last eight games, but his shooting percentage of 7.9% is significantly lower than the 17-18% from his previous two seasons. Another issue is ice time, which is down to 13:35 per game in Quarter 2 compared to 15:49 in Quarter 1.

Lafreniere’s shot rate is also slightly up from last season but still under 2.0 SOG/GP, so he stands to improve on his five-goal total once he returns to the lineup. Keep him on your bench for now, and perhaps even consider a buy-low offer in a keeper format. Without getting into whether deployment has been a factor and whether he was actually ready when he debuted two seasons ago, remember that he’s only 21. This is not the time to write him off. (dec30)

2. Kris Letang was out of the lineup on Friday with a lower-body injury, which resulted in Ty Smith making his Penguins debut against the team that drafted him. Smith was immediately thrown onto the first-unit power play, which has been an ideal place to find scoring riches during the Sidney Crosby/Evgeni Malkin era. Surprisingly, Smith led all Penguins defensemen in ice time, but that was because of the nine power-plays that the Penguins received in this game. The Pittsburgh power play went a very un-Penguin-like 0-for-9. 

Smith hasn’t been lighting up the AHL, but he has put together a decent 14 points in 26 games there. He has definite offensive potential, but it remains to be seen whether he can stick in an NHL lineup due to his defensive play. Plus/minus isn’t the be all and end all of a player’s ability, but it is worth mentioning that Smith was a team-worst minus-26 on the Devils last season. With Letang’s injury status unknown, it’s worth your time to look up the availability of Smith in your league (1% Yahoo/22% Fantrax). (dec31)

3. The Carolina Hurricanes are on a roll, now having won 10 games in a row. That means start whoever is in net, whether it is Pyotr Kochetkov or Antti Raanta. On Friday, Raanta cruised to a relatively light 19-save shutout of the Panthers – his second consecutive shutout. After a great run from Kochetkov, Rod Brind’Amour has turned to Raanta for the past four games and he has delivered with four wins. I’m kind of surprised that Raanta has started four consecutive games without an injury, but good on him for that alone. Having a Christmas break before his two shutouts most likely helps with his recovery. The Canes are receiving strong enough goaltending that they don’t need to rush Frederik Andersen back even if he’s physically ready. (dec31)

4. One thousand games for Sam Gagner is a remarkable feat considering the twists and turns he has experienced throughout his career. Gagner is now on his seventh NHL team, in case you lost count. (dec30)

5. Erik Gustafsson was a top Frozen Tools search this week, and for good reason. John Carlson is expected to be sidelined long term, which should continue to help Gustafsson’s value as he takes on Carlson’s role on a strong PP1 unit. Gustafsson is now rostered in around half of both Yahoo and Fantrax leagues, so you may have missed your opportunity to add him if you haven’t by now. Just bear in mind that he may lose considerable value when Carlson returns, and he’s been wildly inconsistent throughout his career (one 60-point season, no other 30-point seasons). For now, roll with him in formats that use 4+ d-men. (dec30)

6. Wyatt Johnston is now up to 11 goals, which ties him for the rookie goal lead with Matty Beniers. At just 19 years of age, Johnston hasn’t been overwhelmed by the NHL and probably deserves some consideration in deeper single-season leagues. Entering Friday, he was rostered in just 36% of Fantrax leagues, which to me is surprising given the higher concentration of keeper leagues over there. I thought that number would be higher, given his rapid climb from the OHL and the fact he was only drafted last year. 

Johnston has frequently lined up with Jamie Benn, who is suddenly reversing the downward trend that his point totals have been on for several seasons. Entering Saturday, Benn was on a seven-game point streak with eight points over that span and a near point per game (35 PTS in 37 GP). Yet some of his advanced stats were showing up in red on the Frozen Tools Buy/Sell meter (17.4 SH%, 12.9 5-on-5 SH%, 3.7 PTS/60), meaning regression is a strong possibility. As Benn’s linemate, Johnston could be hurt by a possible downturn. (dec30)

7. Michael Amadio has played in over 200 NHL games and to my recollection has never been on my fantasy radar. Yet because of the injury to Jack Eichel, Amadio has been skating on a line with Mark Stone and Chandler Stephenson. His fantasy ownership has increased in the span of a week from virtually nothing to 10% Yahoo / 7% Fantrax, so he’s at the point where he could be added in many league formats. Just note that once Eichel returns, Amadio could be moved down the lineup again unless the lines are reshuffled in a way that retains at least some of his current value. (dec30)

8. Did you predict Erik Karlsson would hit 50 points this season, let alone before the halfway point of the season? Yeah, me neither. At this point I’m done trying to predict that he’ll slow down, and I don’t want to predict that an injury will derail his season. This is a great story for a Sharks team that is going nowhere fast. Karlsson has multiple points in three of his last four games and a 12-game point streak in which he has 18 points. He’s the runaway leader for comeback player of the year so far. (dec30)

9. The Blues will be without Torey Krug who is going to be re-evaluated in six weeks, which likely means at best eight weeks that he’s missing. It appears he was injured on the last shift of the Blues’ final game before the break. Calle Rosen draws back into the lineup. He's been decently productive so far this season, but he’s at risk of being healthy scratched again soon. Colton Parayko has also been on a roll the last few games, and would be worth a look in most leagues that he is available. Justin Faulk is running PP1, though the Blues do tend to run two fairly even units. (dec28)

10. With Torey Krug‘s recent injury news, Scott Perunovich (shoulder) back at practice (but not taking contact) is an important update for St. Louis and fantasy owners alike. If Perunovich can get into the lineup in the next couple of weeks, he could head right to one of the power plays. This is a player to watch if you’re in deeper fantasy formats and are desperate on the blue line. (dec29)

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11. We could say the breakout has already started but Gabriel Vilardi‘s production has slowed considerably since the start of the season. He had 13 points in 11 games through October but has just 11 points in 28 games since. He has already set a career-high in goals and in points and still has over half the season to go.

There are reasons to assume a breakout is coming besides just the production. At time of writing, Evolving Hockey had him leading all Kings forwards in expected goals impact at even strength this season, ranking around the 90^th percentile in the league. By the tracking data, he was also 90^th percentile this season in scoring chance contributions per 60 minutes (SCC/60) at 5-on-5, or individual scoring chances plus assists on teammate scoring chances. He is playing very well at both ends and his offensive game has taken another step. Of course, we need to see it for another 80 games, but this is a great start.

The issue here could be the Los Angeles depth. They have a top-6 that is fairly set while Quinton Byfield is looking to take another step. It is hard to see him earning 18-19 minutes a night considering Kevin Fiala is under 18 minutes a game this season. However, that doesn’t preclude him from a 30-goal, 60-point calendar year and he looks primed to break out at the ages of 23 and 24. (dec29)

12. Tony DeAngelo was signed for two years, which means he should still be around for the 2023-24 season, and that presents a direct roadblock to top power-play minutes for Cam York. However, York has been the number-2 power-play defenseman even when DeAngelo has been in the lineup, and that means the young blue liner is just one step from good production. Not that the Flyers power play is upper-tier or anything, but PP1 minutes will always be important, no matter the roster. 

By my eye, I’ve always wondered why York had a tough time sticking at the NHL level. Yes, he has growth to go through, but it’s not as if he’s playing hot potato with the puck. His giveaways per 60 minutes are the second fewest of all Flyers defensemen over the last two years and he’s tied for the lead among Flyers rearguards in points per minute at 5-on-5. By both expected goals impacts and just by watching him, he seems to create offensively without being poor defensively, which is a rare combination in a young defenseman.

If he can continue the development track he’s on, it’s hard to imagine how York doesn’t become a top pair option for the Flyers by October. My bet is he can do it even earlier. If he can somehow wrangle those PP1 minutes, the breakout potential is there. (dec29)

13. With Logan Thompson‘s breakout underway, Spencer Knight not really an option here, and a third option in Pyotr Kochetkov already breaking out, the options are limited. However, Filip Gustavsson has been great for the Wild in the early portions of the season. Midway this past week, he was posting a .920 save percentage and is saving 0.3 goals above expected per 60 minutes, ranking between Igor Shesterkin and Ville Husso.  

This is probably an obvious choice but there are only so many goalies that A) have a reasonable chance of becoming a full-time starter and B) play for a good team. Gustavsson had a couple of solid seasons in the AHL and has had ups-and-downs in the NHL, but is hopefully turning a corner. With Marc-André Fleury signed for another year, there is competition, but Fleury hasn’t been elite over the last couple years, either. Gustavsson could wrangle a 65/35 split and the Wild are a playoff team. That is enough for breakout potential. (dec29)

14. If Florida is too far out by the trade deadline, we may see a few players like Anthony Duclair or Radko Gudas shipped off, creating a bit more of a permanent opportunity for players like Colin White. More likely though is that young players like Eetu Luostarinen see even more minutes. He could be in line for a hot second-half after seeing his ice time rise three minutes already from Q1 to Q2, and there’s still room for more. (dec28)

15. Detroit’s ninth overall pick from back in 2017 is not someone I think of often, but Michael Rasmussen has just crossed the 200-game mark, and is scoring at a 40-point pace despite only playing third line minutes. He’s surviving as a third-line center which is tough to do as a young player in the NHL, especially without top-tier linemates. He’s a six-foot-six forward though, which makes him a usual longer wait because of the later (400-game) breakout threshold. He has upside for 65 points, and could start to approach that sooner rather than later though with any kind of bump in ice-time and linemate quality. (dec28)

16. Some funky stats. Ian Gooding took a look at some year-end stats last Sunday, forcing me to look a little deeper and have a little fun as I got lost in the Frozen Tools rabbit hole.

Top 10 players to hit the post this season (at time of writing):

1. Vincent Trocheck (9)
2. Connor McDavid (8)
3. Alex Ovechkin (7)
4. Kyle Connor (7)
5. Tage Thompson (6)
6. Patrick Kane (6)
7. Pierre-Luc Dubois (6)
8. JT Miller (6)
9. Mikko Rantanen (5) and eight others (William Nylander, Bo Horvat, Elias Pettersson, Andrei Svechnikov, Artemi Panarin, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jordan Eberle and Victor Olofsson)

17. Top 10 missed shots at time of writing (a missed shot we will class as a shot taken that hit the post, crossbar, went wide or went over the net):

1. Alex Ovechkin (69) – hey, you miss 100% of the shots you don’t take!
2. Andrei Svechnikov (65)
3. Timo Meier (63)
4. Auston Matthews (62)
5. Troy Terry (59)
6. Noah Dobson (57)
7. David Pastrnak (55)
8. Filip Forsberg (53)
9. Vincent Trocheck (53)
10. Mika Zibanejad (52)

18. Here is an interesting one. Which players have had their shots blocked the most so far this year? Well, the answer isn’t even close. At time of writing, Erik Karlsson was blocked 95 times. Ironically enough, his former compadre is at No.2.

1. Erik Karlsson (95)
2. Brent Burns (88)
3. Roman Josi (86)
4. Dougie Hamilton (85)
5. Alex Ovechkin (84)
6. David Pastrnak (84)
7. Cale Makar (84)
8. Noah Dobson (71)
9. Jason Robertson (67)
10. Miro Heiskanen (67)

Not surprising that this particular list is dominated by defensemen, who obviously shoot from further out than forwards.

19. Taking a look at the Individual Points Percentages that are notable across the league, we can mine for potential. IPP is useful in finding players on the third line who are performing too well for that line and deserve looks in the top six. That means – there is potential for those players to have a strong second half as the coach starts to recognize and reward their talent. I go over advanced stats in articles here and here, if you want to brush up on the IPP. A player on the first line is going to likely be an established star. The better ones will have an IPP of 75% or higher, but there is flexibility there. However, if you see a top-liner with an IPP of say 40%, there would be some concern that said player loses his spot on that big line.

On the flip side, as noted already, if a player is on the third line and putting a high IPP, it indicates that he is by far and away the driver on that line. When goals are scored while his line is out there, he is playing a major part in those goals.

20. Check out the IPP report here for updated stats. And let's check out the ES IPP at time of writing for some interesting observations:

Mason McTavish – The IPP for McTavish really drills home what we want to see. His overall IPP is 80%, indicating that he’s a little too good for the players he is generally out there alongside. However, his PPIPP is 69.2%, which tells us that the PP unit he is with is about right. His ESIPP is 91.7%, which is nuts. At evens, he is out there mostly with Brett Leason and Max Jones, so – duh. Of course he’s going to be the catalyst when it comes to those guys. But on the PP, he is mostly out there with Trevor Zegras and Troy Terry. The moment this guy gets ES ice time with quality linemates, watch out.

Juraj Slafkovsky – His IPP is 90.9% overall and he’s been in on 100% of the PP goals scored when he’s out there (a total of two, but still…). Slafkovsky’s linemates have been mostly Jake Evans and Josh Anderson. Yeah. Now, as a bigger forward, he is probably going to take a couple of years before finding his true mojo. But this indicates that he is ready to at least post at a 50-point pace if he would ever get placed on one of the big lines. But perhaps the Habs see what has happened with Jesse Puljujarvi when the Oilers push him alongside Connor McDavid, and they don’t want that kind of pressure on their 18-year-old stud.

Kent Johnson – Johnson’s ESIPP is 85.7% says that he’s not playing with strong enough players. Or, more accurately, when the team scores with him out there, he has the goal or an assist 85.7% of the time, which is abnormally high. It implies that he’s doing most of the legwork. But his top linemates are: Jakub Voracek, Jack Roslovic, Johnny Gaudreau and Patrik Laine. In that order. He is also seeing plenty of time lately with Cole Sillinger and Kirill Marchenko. Perhaps it’s when he is on the non-Gaudreau lines that his IPP starts ticking upwards – the data, unfortunately, doesn’t break it down like that. Either way, his future looks very bright.

21. And now let’s look at some of the ‘bad’ ES IPP indicators (again, at time of writing):

Kirby Dach – A big player at 6-4 and a former third-overall draft pick, Dach is having a career year alongside Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield. But does he belong there right now? He’s only 21 and generally a 6-4 player comes into his own later (already noted above with Puljujarvi and Slafkovsky). Dach’s ESIPP is 51.9%, which means that his linemates are passing pucks back and forth to each other and potting the goals – often leaving him out of it.

Joe Pavelski – This name jumped out at me. Is he finally slowing down at 39? Playing with one of the top offensive players in the NHL (Jason Robertson) could conceivably prop his numbers up like this. Pavelski’s ESIPP is just 50%! And even on the power play, it’s at just 52.2% despite his having 12 PPPts. He’s compiling a lot of points, but the players around him are producing even more. I would be very wary of acquiring this guy. He has just five points in his last 10 games, too.

Sam Steel – As good as Steel has been on the Kirill Kaprizov line, especially lately, no matter how well he does he’ll never be nearly as good as Kaprizov. His 48% IPP at even strength is starting to rise, but it will probably never be at a level that keeps up with the stars on his line.

Keep in mind that the above are statistics. And we are only 35 games into the season. That’s a small sample size. If any of the above players have two great games and are in on five out of five goals that their line scores – suddenly that 45% turns into a palatable 60% just like that. And on the flip side, if a player gets promoted to the second line and that line picks up three points that he doesn’t get a point on – his 80% slips to 70% in an awful hurry. These should be only used as indicators, and taken with whatever logic you have and fill in around it such as age, linemates, his role, etc.

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Have a good week, folks – stay safe!!

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