Every Sunday, we’ll share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Cam Robinson, and Dobber

1. It appears as if Auston Matthews is going to take some PK duties this year. This is a bit concerning for me. I get that, in a nutshell, players getting more ice time is a good thing for fantasy.

What I worry about is that Matthews was playing over 22 minutes a night after Christmas last year. If he were to go from 22:18 to 23:48 while adding 90 seconds of PK time per night, then great. But if he were to go from 22:18 to 22:25 while adding 90 seconds of PK time per night, well, not great. That means the PK time came at the expense of EV or PP time, and that’s bad for us (unless you play in an SHP league).

Imagining Matthews playing 24 minutes a night is a bridge too far, so it seems likely that the PK time will come at the expense of PP/EV time. It may not be 90 seconds, it may be 60 or 45, but any amount of time is a step in the wrong direction for fantasy. To be clear, this isn’t a massive downgrade or anything. It is just something of which to be cognizant. (jan8)

2. I had a follower ask me about my feelings on trading Connor Hellebuyck and it got me thinking about dealing players at their peak value. In the case of Hellebuyck, the 27-year-old is coming off of the Vezina win and covering up for all the holds on the Jets blueline. However, when considering his career to date, he's a one-on, one-off type of guy.

Save Percentage Year Over Year:
– 2015-16: 0.918
– 2016-17: 0.907
– 2017-18: 0.924
– 2018-19: 0.913
– 2019-20: 0.922

Some of this can be attributed to him being a young starter finding his way. Now he's in his prime and the expectation should be that his numbers remain steady. But I'm also very concerned with the amount of rubber he'll be seeing behind that defense core in Winnipeg.

If you can pull a top-10 skater for him and can absorb the loss in net, I'm making that deal. (jan6)

3. After a career-high 34 goals and 69 points in 2017-18, Rickard Rakell has fallen to 43 and 42 points (in 69 and 65 games, respectively) over his past two seasons. Over a full season, that’s a fall from a 70-point pace to just over a 50-point pace. Not only has Rakell’s point total fallen over that time, but also his shooting percentage, from 18.6% to 14.8% in his career season to 9.3% and finally 8.1%. Rakell is only 27, so it’s unlikely this is an age-related decline.

Yet, are two seasons of similar results what we should expect from Rakell? Anaheim is undergoing a rebuilding phase, so for now there aren’t going to be the kind of scoring options surrounding Rakell to boost his numbers. It would help Rakell immensely if someone among the youth movement including Sam Steel, Troy Terry, or even World Junior star Trevor Zegras could become that standout game-breaker for the Ducks. Depending how long it takes for these players to develop, Rakell’s best years might go to waste, barring a trade to a contender.

For what it’s worth, Rakell should be on the Ducks’ first-unit power play. He should also form a veteran top line with Adam Henrique and Jakob Silfverberg. If his shooting percentage finally reverses course, then he could be an inexpensive yet productive add for your team. Don’t expect a return to his career season, though, where much of his ice time was spent with Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry, who were closer to their prime at that time. (jan9)

4. Now that Corey Crawford has announced his retirement after 10 NHL seasons, Mackenzie Blackwood should be one of the busier goalies in the league. Adding to that is the fact that the Devils play a relatively low number of back-to-backs (7). Scott Wedgewood, who has 24 games of NHL experience and none since 2017-18, is expected to be Blackwood’s backup. (jan9)

Despite signing with New Jersey in the offseason, Crawford will finish his career having played for only the Blackhawks. He will be best known as having backstopped the Hawks to two Stanley Cups (2013, 2015), while he also played in two All-Star Games (2015, 2017) and shared in two Jennings Trophy wins (2013, 2015). Those are considerable accomplishments, so his decision is understandable given the fact that he has battled headaches and light sensitivity from multiple head injuries in recent years. All the best to him in his retirement.

In the end, the Blackhawks’ decision to not re-sign Crawford this offseason and go with the inexperienced group of goalies suddenly doesn’t look so bad. Combine that with the absences of Kirby Dach and Jonathan Toews and it appears that this will be a season for the Hawks to retool. (jan10)

6. Over on Yahoo!, Mikko Rantanen is typically being drafted in the middle of the second round, ahead of guys like Evgeni Svechnikov, Mitch Marner, and Jake Guentzel. Not that it is terrible when comparing talent, but Rantanen doesn’t shoot as much as Svech or Guentzel, so he has to wildly outscore them to be more valuable in fantasy.

To pay off an ADP of mid-first round in a 12-team league, he has to pro-rate his season to something similar to Artemi Panarin‘s 2019-20. That means Rantanen doing in 2021 what he did in 2018-19 (pro-rated to 66 points in 56 games) is not enough. (jan8)

7. I have Cale Makar leading all defensemen in points and it’s hard to explain why that’s such a weird proclamation for me. I am typically slower on the uptake for young stars and it has served me relatively well over the years.

What Makar did was so far beyond what could be considered reasonable for a 21-year-old rookie that we have to start immediately comparing him to Hall of Famers. This is not hyperbolic in the least, either: from Hockey Reference, here are all the rookie NHL defensemen aged 21 or younger who managed at least 0.8 points/game (min. 50 games played):

Of the eight defensemen to do it prior to Makar, five are Hall of Famers, and his production profile (G/A/SOG) lines up best with Ray Bourque and Larry Murphy. Read that sentence back before proceeding to the next paragraph.

It is not a perfect comparison. Saying Makar is the next Bourque is obviously unfair to Makar, but the reality is I don’t know a better way to predict small-sample futures than with comparable pasts. There are some concerns with Makar, namely on-ice shooting percentages, but I think small TOI increases will help offset this and lead to pushing Makar to the top of all blue liners. Again, this is an absurd proclamation for a second-year player but we have to trust our numbers/process and adjust when we’re wrong. Makar is such a special case that he’ll help me with other players moving forward. (jan7)

8. I don’t have a single Nashville forward projected for more than 40 points, which means no Predators forward would be projected for 60+ points in a normal year. And even in a division that looks to have a lot of weak defensive teams, I don’t know how forwards have big years here; guys playing 16-17 minutes a night just don’t have monster offensive seasons.

(For reference, one top-30 scorer from last year played under 18 minutes a night and it was Max Pacioretty playing 17:55.)

It is always a surprise when I have a defenseman (Roman Josi) projected to lead a team in points but the Preds, helmed by coach Jon Hynes, are in a sad state of affairs in the fantasy realm right now. We can only hope he changes his approach. (jan7)

9. Luke Kunin signed a two-year deal with the Preds. Expect him to stay in a bottom-6 role with the team but if players like Philip Tomasino and Eeli Tolvanen don’t work out, he could easily slide to a top-6 role. That could see him replicate, possibly even improve, on last year. (jan7)

10. Here's something interesting: Last season, Nate Schmidt was the 4th most effective power-play producer by defensemen on a per-60 PPTOI basis (6.8). He trailed Neal Pionk (7.2), Torey Krug (7.1) and John Klingberg (6.9). Not bad company to keep.

Now, as you may have guessed, the newest Canucks’ blueliner saw significantly fewer minutes on the man-advantage as those around him on the list. But this does indicate that Schmidt could represent an upgrade on the second power-play unit with his new squad. Something that Vancouver needs as Alex Edler inches closer to retirement.

Additionally, his even-strength production – which historically has been very strong, has the potential for further growth. The belief around the industry is that Travis Hamonic will sign with the club once Micheal Ferland‘s cap hit lands on LTIR at the beginning of the season.

Many believe that Hamonic will slide right into Chris Tanev‘s departed spot next to Quinn Hughes. They play a similar style on the right side. I think we’ll see that combo dished out. But I think we eventually see Schmidt land in that spot. Sure, he’s a lefty. But he’s very comfortable on the right side – playing there almost exclusively the last two seasons. He’s also the team’s second-best defender. It creates a dynamic offensive top pairing but also one who can play strong defense. (jan6)

11. This from the early days of camp: It’s not to say P.K. Subban is going to stay on the Devils' top PP unit, but he’s had one bad year amid an all-star career; he deserves another season to prove his worth.

Subban has been going pick-200 or later in some drafts I’ve seen, regardless of format. This is a guy who is just 31 years old, has one Norris Trophy, two other top-3 Norris finishes, and averaged 51 points/82 games in Nashville.

If that power play can be good – and once Nico Hischier is there, I think it will be – I don’t see why Subban can’t be a top-20 fantasy defenseman this year. This is the kind of buying opportunity that wins fantasy leagues when it works out. (jan5)

12. More early camp bits: It looks as if Cody Glass is going to start the year on the third line. Not a terrible thing, necessarily, but I was really hoping he'd start the year on the second line. I hope he still gets those PP minutes, at least.

– Interesting to me is that the Red Wings had Evgeny Svechnikov skating with Frans Nielsen. Is the elder Svech ready for a jump? It appears the team wants to at least give him a shot.

– Steven Stamkos is taking Kuch’s spot on Brayden Point‘s line and that’s great news for us. Stamkos playing with Anthony Cirelli would have been a downgrade for his upside. Now, it certainly looks like a healthy Stamkos is ready for point-per-game production again.

– Filed under the ‘Good News’ column: it appears Nolan Patrick is ready to rock and is looking good in his first day of camp. He missed the entire 2019-20 season with a migraine problem so it’s great to just see him skating, let alone doing well at training camp.

– It looks like John Klingberg is going to hang onto his PP1 slotting for now, which is probably for the best. At the same time, this is not a good offensive environment and Tyler Seguin is out for months, if not the season. On a per-minute basis, if Dallas’s PP2 outscored their PP1 this year, I would not be the least bit surprised. Miro Heiskanen is a true engine and can carry a PP unit. (jan5)

13. The Taxi Squad rule will make things very interesting this year in terms of player movement. First of all, you will see far more junior-age players hanging around until February. They can practice with the NHL team for three weeks – why not? This could also lead to opportunities, if a veteran gets injured.

For example, in a normal training camp, Philip Tomasino would probably be sent to junior. His NHL games played this year would be zero. But this year, he stays on the Taxi Squad. Let’s say on January 23, Matt Duchene gets injured for four-to-six weeks. Now Tomasino gets into the lineup. He wouldn’t normally get into the lineup because normally he would be playing for Oshawa. But in this situation, he gets into the lineup. And let’s say Erik Haula goes down with an injury two games later. Suddenly, the Predators give Tomasino even more ice time and he responds with some points.

By the time Duchene is ready to get back, Tomasino, in my hypothetical scenario, has nine points in 13 games and the team wants him to stay. So Tomasino would (hypothetically) play almost an entire NHL season because of the pandemic schedule when normally he would have played zero games. (jan4)

14. A few notable players were left off training camp rosters, but this does not mean that they will not join their team later on. For example, Denis Malgin is tearing up the Swiss League right now with 22 points in 19 games, which is good for third.

The Leafs are so deep that there is no way he will make the team (which is unfortunate because I think there is some hidden value here). So he will remain in the Swiss League and I suspect the team will call him back in April and he’ll get into a few games.

An unrestricted free agent, undrafted 23-year-old who dominates the Swiss League like this would have 20 NHL teams begging to sign him. The Leafs already have him. And he has NHL experience. As long as depth and/or hockey politics don’t get in the way, I think Malgin is a future fantasy option. Color me a fan. (jan4)

15. Many of you are/will be participating in Yahoo leagues, which provide their own rankings as well as average draft position (ADP). I prepared for my own roto-league draft with the help of Fantasy Hockey Geek. Here are

Keep in mind that my analysis is for multicategory leagues that will include the default Yahoo categories.  These categories are goals, assists, plus/minus, shots, power-play points, and hits. I’ve included three forwards, two defensemen, and a goalie today, so this could be an all-star team of undervalued players. Just below are two, follow the link for the rest. (jan3)

16. Roman Josi (Yahoo ADP 32.9): Josi probably shouldn’t be the first defenseman you draft. According to Yahoo, it should be Victor Hedman, but I think it should be John Carlson. After Carlson and Hedman, you could make a case that it should be the reigning Norris Trophy winner.

Josi was the second-leading scorer among defensemen in 2019-20, and he could easily do the same in 2020-21. Then there’s that shot total, which led the league in 2019-20 (260 SOG). In fact, only Brent Burns has taken more total shots over the past three seasons than Josi (787). In addition, Josi has been at least a plus-20 in two of the past three seasons. With all of that, I’m surprised that you might be able to land him after pick 30. (jan3)

17. Brady Tkachuk (Yahoo ADP 53.1): If you’re in a pure points league, this ranking seems appropriate. In fact, it may even be a little high. There is potential for season-for-season growth in the points, but you’re not just drafting him for the points here.

Tkachuk finished second in the entire league to Ryan Reaves with 303 hits, and there’s no reason to think that the 21-year-old won’t continue to try to pound everything in sight. In addition, there’s the 259 shots, which placed him in the top 10. Basically what you have here is an Alex Ovechkin-light, and I’m quite alright with drafting Ovechkin in the top 5 in a multicategory league. With Tkachuk, you can put up with a few less goals and assists for that kind of dominance in the hits and shots categories. (jan3)

18. More regarding the younger Tkachuk: I think that he’s going to get Evgenii Dadonov as a winger. He will be by far the best winger that Tkachuk has had to play with, which is exciting as far as upside is concerned. I am not convinced Logan Brown is long for the top line (he’s likely a placeholder for Derek Stepan, who is in quarantine protocol), but as long as Tkachuk/Dadonov stay together, that should be a very productive combo this year. (jan8)

19. Among the people I texted about Devon Levi's game, the one description I saw multiple times was “great focus.” Before you rush out to add Levi to your keeper team, you may want to read Dobber’s Ramblings from November, when he discussed how to draft goalie prospects.

This isn’t meant as a slight against Levi in particular, but he’s a long, long way from the NHL. And you want goalies that are much, much closer to the show. But at least in the meantime, you can check out Levi’s Dobber Prospects page. (jan3)

20. Tim Stuetzle looked like a star in the making at the WJC, scoring 10 points (5g-5a) in five games, so you can bet he will receive serious consideration to make the Senators roster. Following the World Junior Championship, he needed to quarantine for seven days and pass four COVID tests before Sens camp. (jan3)

In points-only keeper leagues, he has moved into No.2 to draft as I think he gets his points before Quinton Byfield does. That being said, Byfield has also impressed. But what Stuetzle has done playing with those teammates has exceeded anything I’ve seen in a long time. And Buffalo prospect John-Jason Peterka has actually kept up with him! He’s on my radar too, now. (jan4)

21. At Sabres camp: Former Hurricanes Eric Staal and Jeff Skinner have been reunited on a line. Although Staal is now 36 and has seen his best days, I wonder if his presence could help Skinner rebound from what was a disastrous 2019-20. It certainly should have factored into why the Sabres traded for Staal, considering that they have invested seven more seasons at $9 million per season in Skinner. Don’t be afraid to take a late-round flier on Skinner for that reason.

Not-so-fun fact about Skinner: It seems like he has been around forever (a decade, actually), but he has never played in an NHL playoff game. (jan3)

Have a good week, folks – be safe!!

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