21 Fantasy Hockey Rambles

Mario Prata

2021-01-10

Every Sunday, we’ll share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Cam Robinson, and Dobber


 

1. It appears as if Auston Matthews is going to take some PK duties this year. This is a bit concerning for me. I get that, in a nutshell, players getting more ice time is a good thing for fantasy.

What I worry about is that Matthews was playing over 22 minutes a night after Christmas last year. If he were to go from 22:18 to 23:48 while adding 90 seconds of PK time per night, then great. But if he were to go from 22:18 to 22:25 while adding 90 seconds of PK time per night, well, not great. That means the PK time came at the expense of EV or PP time, and that’s bad for us (unless you play in an SHP league).

Imagining Matthews playing 24 minutes a night is a bridge too far, so it seems likely that the PK time will come at the expense of PP/EV time. It may not be 90 seconds, it may be 60 or 45, but any amount of time is a step in the wrong direction for fantasy. To be clear, this isn’t a massive downgrade or anything. It is just something of which to be cognizant. (jan8)

 

2. I had a follower ask me about my feelings on trading Connor Hellebuyck and it got me thinking about dealing players at their peak value. In the case of Hellebuyck, the 27-year-old is coming off of the Vezina win and covering up for all the holds on the Jets blueline. However, when considering his career to date, he's a one-on, one-off type of guy.

Save Percentage Year Over Year:
– 2015-16: 0.918
– 2016-17: 0.907
– 2017-18: 0.924
– 2018-19: 0.913
– 2019-20: 0.922

Some of this can be attributed to him being a young starter finding his way. Now he's in his prime and the expectation should be that his numbers remain steady. But I'm also very concerned with the amount of rubber he'll be seeing behind that defense core in Winnipeg.

If you can pull a top-10 skater for him and can absorb the loss in net, I'm making that deal. (jan6)

 

3. After a career-high 34 goals and 69 points in 2017-18, Rickard Rakell has fallen to 43 and 42 points (in 69 and 65 games, respectively) over his past two seasons. Over a full season, that’s a fall from a 70-point pace to just over a 50-point pace. Not only has Rakell’s point total fallen over that time, but also his shooting percentage, from 18.6% to 14.8% in his career season to 9.3% and finally 8.1%. Rakell is only 27, so it’s unlikely this is an age-related decline.

Yet, are two seasons of similar results what we should expect from Rakell? Anaheim is undergoing a rebuilding phase, so for now there aren’t going to be the kind of scoring options surrounding Rakell to boost his numbers. It would help Rakell immensely if someone among the youth movement including Sam Steel, Troy Terry, or even World Junior s