Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, and Dobber

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1. The Top 100 Roto Rankings have been published for June. Although these rankings won’t really matter until single-season drafts start happening in September (at the earliest), I’ll still tweak and refine them based on both offseason moves and digging deeper on player statlines. This month, I concentrated on finding a few fallers. Below are two, Jeremy Swayman and Dylan Larkin, that were published this week:

All being said, Swayman had an impressive first full season. His 2.41 GAA was in the top 5 among goalies that had played in at least 20 games. His .914 SV% and 53.7 QS% made him worth starting most of the time. All of those numbers were comparable to tandem mate Linus Ullmark, who was signed to a four-year contract last offseason to be the long-term replacement for Tuukka Rask.

Even though Swayman has a bright NHL future ahead, much of a goalie’s fantasy value is tied to the team in front of him. Unfortunately, there are a multitude of reasons that the Bruins are expected to fall in the standings. The injuries to top defenseman Charlie McAvoy and first-line forward Brad Marchand. The possible retirement of Selke Trophy winner Patrice Bergeron. Even the firing of Bruce Cassidy, who was able to implement a strong defensive system as the head coach.

Add all of that up along with a potential timeshare with Ullmark, and Swayman doesn’t appear to be a top-100 fantasy option heading into next season. Of course, the offseason still has to play out. Yet if there’s one team that appears prepared to take a step back, it’s the Bruins. As the roster stands, wins will be harder to come by, and that directly impacts the goalies. (jun17)

2. As for the other roto faller mentioned above, I don’t feel strongly about a potential downturn for Larkin, as moving him down was more of a rankings correction than anything. That being said, Larkin had his share of red and orange on the Buy/Sell Meter on his Frozen Tools Advanced Stats page. Most notable was a 14.6 SH%, but also worth mentioning are his 9.9 5-on-5 SH% and his 3.0 PTS/60.

Although Larkin’s 212 SOG was decent, it wasn’t nearly as high as his 287 SOG from a few seasons ago. He was able to score 32 goals that season. Based on previous shooting percentages, he’s going to have to shoot more in order to reach 30 goals again. Otherwise, expect a drop in goals.

Larkin does have a couple of things working in his favor for next season. One is a low secondary assist percentage (31.6%), which could push his assist total to over 40 next season. The other is that he will be entering a contract season next season, unless the Wings can sign him to a long-term extension this offseason. (jun18)

3. We have reached the conclusion of what has been another long draft cycle but this one felt far more normal than the last couple of years did. For the most part, leagues around the world returned to their regular schedules, providing draft-eligible players with ample opportunity to improve their draft stocks over the course of the year. As a result, our board has evolved and gone through significant changes since the beginning of the season with some players making significant gains and others failing to maintain their standing.

Collectively, our team at DobberProspects has spent hundreds of hours attending games, watching film, discussing players, and filing reports in order to bring you a ranking that best represents the opinions and views of our entire group. Without further ado, let's hop over to our sister site to check out the DP Scouting Team's Final Rankings for the 2022 NHL Draft… (jun18)

4. The Chicago Blackhawks are embracing the full rebuild. According to several sources, they have been discussing a possible Alex DeBrincat trade with other teams. Although DeBrincat is hardly a grizzled veteran at age 24, his prime wouldn’t likely align with a future competitive window for the Hawks, who still have Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews on the books for one more season. A DeBrincat trade to a team in a better position to contend might ultimately help his fantasy value.

Now the Seth Jones trade-and-sign last summer really looks like a bad idea. The Blackhawks don’t have anyone signed beyond three seasons from now, with Jake McCabe the only player signed for more than two more seasons. (jun18)

5. The Golden Knights have traded Evgenii Dadonov to Montreal for the Shea Weber contract. For more, see the Fantasy Take from Mike Clifford.

Something I’ll add about Dadonov that you may recall: He was a point-per-game player in Vegas (16 PTS in 16 GP) after the failed trade to Anaheim. Vegas was dealing with injuries to Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty, and Reilly Smith, but Dadonov can still contribute if in the right situation. As Cliffy said, the Habs are bloated when it comes to wingers – particularly middle-6 level – but there’s still an offseason of transactions still to occur. (jun17)

6. The Rangers have reportedly signed Sammy Blais to a one-year extension worth $1.525 million. Blais was acquired in the Pavel Buchnevich trade last offseason, but he played in only 14 games because of a torn right ACL. If Blais can improve upon his scoring (just four points – all assists – in 14 games), he may become a significant factor in bangers leagues. Blais registered 100 hits in back-to-back seasons with St. Louis prior to his trade, even though he did not play in more than 40 games in either season. (jun17)

7. This may have fallen under the radar with the Stanley Cup Final starting on Wednesday, but Gary Bettman has announced that the 2022-23 season will start on October 11. That’s something to keep in mind if you need to plan your fantasy league’s draft and other offseason activities. This season started on October 12, which is later than it had started in previous pre-COVID seasons. However, you wouldn’t have to change much if you were simply looking to mirror your schedule from last offseason. Even though free agency starts July 13 instead of the usual July 1, the offseason length isn’t cut down significantly. (jun17)

8. We had an update on a Grigori Denisenko injury: 

~ @ColbyDGuy: Prospect Grigori Denisenko received season-ending surgery on a broken kneecap in January. He should be ready by training camp and could factor into the opening night lineup. Whether it's via trade or making the roster is to be determined. ~

Denisenko was once part of a coveted group of prospects the Panthers had and not (m)any of them have panned out. Hopefully he can get healthy, get a good AHL season under him, and start to force the team to consider him at the NHL level. With how stacked that roster is likely to be, it’s a long road to fantasy relevance for him. (june16)

9. One of these areas I want to talk about is scoring chance contributions (SCC). It is simply the rate at which a player either A) takes a scoring chance themselves or B) creates a scoring chance for a teammate. The application is fairly obvious here, as players that either take or create scoring chances at a high rate are typically your top offensive players.

From Corey Sznajder’s (Patreon here) data, the top-3 in SCC per 60 minutes in 2021-22 were Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and Johnny Gaudreau. We’ll discuss others further down the list, but it can help us identify players who were wizards for their teams offensively. Some of them will be obvious, and some won’t. But these are players worth discussing and we’re going to do exactly that. (june16)

10. I mentioned the top-3 players by SCC per 60 minutes above. Fourth on that list is none other than Middle Child Jack Hughes. Whenever we see a player take a huge jump in production – 52 points in 117 regular season games in his first two seasons up to 56 points in 49 games in 2022-22 – it’s always worth noting if it was some sort of mirage. He did set career-bests across the board at 5-on-5, but it seems as if it were earned. And the note here is nothing was at an extreme of the league: Hughes’s 5-on-5 shooting percentage was outside the 80^th percentile and the team’s on-ice shooting percentage with Hughes skating was in a similar percentile. In other words, he wasn’t near the top of the league in either regard, and considering the scoring chances generated with him on the ice, there’s no guarantee of a big regression.

New Jersey has a couple of important restricted free agents to deal with in Jesper Bratt (more on him in a minute) and Pavel Zacha. There are lesser deals to be handed out as well, but with over $25M in cap space, they can make a splash in free agency (or the trade market) if they feel so inclined. With Alexander Holtz on the way, and guys like Hughes, Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier, Dawson Mercer, and Yegor Sharangovich a year older, there could be a lot of offense in this top-6 forward mix. New Jersey’s rebuild looks to be rounding into form and Hughes is leading the way. Maybe there’s a pullback in his overall shooting percentage, but he should be able to more than make up for it in assists as the scoring chances keep piling up. Hughes should be a superstar sooner rather than later and if your fantasy league-mates don’t believe in him, reap those rewards at the draft table. Just watch for his multi-cat value because he has 26 career penalty minutes and 33 career hits. He is a dud in those areas. (june16)

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11. The Philadelphia Flyers officially announced the John Tortorella hiring on Friday. Read about what it means in fantasy leagues here.

For Flyers fans’ sake, hopefully they receive the Columbus version of Tortorella that maximized the potential of that team as opposed to the Vancouver version who lasted only one season and never seemed like the right fit. I can remember fans here cringing when Torts stated in a press conference that even the Sedins would be blocking shots and killing penalties. If you’re wondering why I’m not bullish on Torts improving the Flyers offensively, one example is the Sedins’ 2013-14 season under Torts compared to the rest of their careers.

Daniel Sedin
2013-14: 0.66 PTS/GP
Career: 0.89 PTS/GP

Henrik Sedin
2013-14: 0.71 PTS/GP
Career: 0.91 PTS/GP

That’s only one example over one season, I understand, but Tortorella teams haven’t been known for their wide-open style. Don’t expect any showboating on the Flyers either.

One reason I kept Ivan Provorov on one of my teams all season (6 D) was his blocked shots total. I don’t necessarily expect him to become a major scoring force under Torts, but I’d expect him to log a ton of minutes and thus continue to block a lot of shots. The downside to blocking shots, though, is the risk for injury – more so than in other roto categories. Taking one for the team could also mean time spent on the IR. (jun18)

12. The Vegas Golden Knights wasted no time getting one of the big names on the coaching market, locking up Bruce Cassidy for their vacant spot. Michael Clifford covered the fantasy take here, and he touched on all the main points that I would have covered as well. I did notice that there wasn’t really much to say on the defensemen though, so I did a little digging there.

Cassidy really leaned on his top guys, which will still fly well in Vegas with Alex Pietrangelo, Shea Theodore, and others. However, he also rarely played two defensemen on the top power play unit, and he often leaves that top unit out for most of the available time with the man advantage. The likelihood is that this might boost Theodore’s value as the top guy, but it’s also possible that Pietrangelo gets the top gig, so it’s definitely something to keep an eye on in training camp, and jumping on the top PPQB a little earlier in your fall drafts. (june15)

13. Sticking with the coaching carousel, I’ll have some quick thoughts on each of the vacancies. It does seem likely that Barry Trotz will return home to coach the Jets, while it is rumoured (now official) that John Tortorella may be the front-runner for the Flyers. Both would help out shaky team defenses from the past year, which would be a boon to all goalies involved. With Steve Yzerman at the helm, I think we can expect the Red Wings to find someone that isn’t one of the recycled options, which hopefully is a boost for the skill that the team is grooming.

Whoever the Bruins bring in (or promote) is going to be coming into a tough situation with all of the talent that is starting the year on the IR. Personally I’m just hoping that the Taylor Hall, Erik Haula, and David Pastrnak line is kept intact, after the trio put up the best possession numbers of any non-Patrice Bergeron line that played at least 50 minutes together. The line came together for the second half of the year, and each of the trio saw a large bump in production as soon as the match was made.

I don’t see what effect a coach would have on the Stars almost regardless of style. The top line is going to chug along, Miro Heiskanen is going to climb the ladder of Norris votes, and Jake Oettinger will continue to keep the team in games where they don’t belong. Aside from the John Klingberg situation, one of the less-interesting spots for offseason news. (june15)

14. In Nashville, the forward group is where things get interesting. Filip Forsberg is the obvious focal point, and whether or not he re-signs in Nashville has a big trickle down on the rest of the club. However, if Forsberg doesn’t return, that money would then likely be thrown at a different UFA to fill the gap, such as a Valeri Nichushkin or Andrei Burakovsky, or the Predators could look to the trade market. Assuming either way that one more top-tier forward is added to the group, then along with Mikael Granlund and Matt Duchene we at least have a top line set. Furthermore, the Preds’ uber effective Herd line of Tanner Jeannot, Yakov Trenin, and Colton Sissons will likely remain intact as the third line.

Ryan Johansen with his giant contract is going to get second line minutes, deserving or not, but his winger slots are still wide open. Luke Kunin, Nick Cousins, Eeli Tolvanen, and Philip Tomasino rotated there throughout the year. With another year under the belts of Tolvanen and Tomasino, it would be ideal for everyone involved for them to grab those spots and make for a second scoring line that other teams actually need to pay attention to. They both have the upside for it, but Tolvanen’s leash is growing shorter, and he doesn’t seem to have the trust of returning head coach John Hynes. More likely it ends up being Kunin and Tomasino, making the latter an interesting gamble in the late rounds of redraft pools for next year, and the former a streaky player that you keep your eye on while he spends most of the season on your waiver wire. (june15)

15. After winning the AHL’s MVP award in the shortened 2020-21 season, T.J. Tynan followed it up by scoring 98 points in only 62 games for the Ontario Reign. He may only be on a two-way deal for next year, but the two-year contract (signed this past week) with the second year being one-way shows that the Kings do still think he has a chance to be an NHL regular as he passes the age of 30. He’s not someone that will be on many radars as we enter next season, but if he does get a chance and starts to run with it then don’t wait too long, as Tynan has shown that he does have a talent for racking up points. (june15)

16. Perhaps the biggest development for the Rangers in the postseason was the emergence of the Kid Line. Alexis Lafrenière, Filip Chytil, and Kaapo Kakko combined for just 71 points in 194 combined games (0.37 ppg) in the regular season, as the latter two fought injuries at times. They combined for 23 points in 59 games (0.39 ppg) in the playoffs, a small uptick during some very tough games. What’s more is that per Moneypuck, that line led the Rangers in expected goals generated, and actual goals generated, at 5-on-5 throughout the postseason. In fact, they were the only Rangers line to sit at or above 50% of the expected goal share. They were arguably the team’s best 5-on-5 line, though often in softer deployment. Let’s click on the line to last Tuesday's Ramblings and talk about them one at a time. (june14)

17. A lot of talk about this year’s crop of UFA’s, but not enough talk about the restricted variety of free agent. Let’s take a look at some interesting restricted free agents (RFA) and what’s ahead for them.

– Patrik Laine: Needs a Qualifying Offer (QO) of $7.5M. He’ll get that. I don’t think he deserves a raise and I don’t think he’ll be poached by another team. He may file for arbitration to get more though.

– Matthew Tkachuk: Needs a QO of $9M. Ouch. But he’ll get that for sure. I don’t think he’ll go to arbitration when he’s already going to make a ton.

– Brock Boeser:  needs a QO of $7.5M and I think the Canucks have to do it.

– Kevin Fiala: needs a $5.1 QO and the Wild will give that to him. But he won’t sign it, and therein lies Minnesota’s problem. I think they work hard on trying to keep him, but it may not be feasible. (june13)

18. There is a good chance that the following players do not receive a QO from their team and thus become unrestricted free agents, able to sign with any team:

– Dominik Kubalik ($4M), Dylan Strome ($3.6M), Miles Wood ($3.5M)

There is a ‘small’ chance, but still a chance, that the following players also don’t receive a QO from their team and become UFAs:

– Alexandar Georgiev ($2.65M), Ethan Bear ($2.5M)

So be on the lookout for these names and be prepared to add them to your UFA list when the market opens on July 13. (june13)

19. In an unexpected move, Vitali Kravtsov has signed a contract with the Rangers. Kravtsov has been fighting with the team for a couple of years now about his ice time and about being sent to the minors. His agent is, of course, Dan Milstein, who is at the center of pretty much all the player disputes we see. Kravtsov feels entitled to a roster spot and while I agree he has fantastic upside, even he has to see that he’s done nothing special. He’s 22 years old now, so perhaps he can make his mark for them in the fall. He signed for almost the league minimum and it was a one-way deal, so he ‘should’ make the squad this time around. [Kravtsov’s prospect profile here]. (june13)

20. A couple of prospects that have signed in the past few days to return to Europe:

Joachim Blichfeld (SJS) – A one-dimensional offensive player who loves to shoot the puck. Lack of defensive acumen cost him an NHL stint last season, though he did play five games a year ago. He led San Jose’s minor-league team the Barracuda in points in two of the last three seasons and is only 23 years old. He signed to play in the SHL.

Josef Korenar (ARI) – Off to Czechia he goes. He had horrible season. Couldn’t have gone worse. He lost the backup role to Karel Vejmelka (and we know what happened from there), and then with Tucson his numbers were horrible. He’s 24 years old and while I understand the frustration – the fact is that he got into 12 NHL games in his career already. Goalies start NHL careers later than skaters, and if he’s going to chase an NHL dream, that dream honestly should start now. Age 24 to 27 is the sweet spot. Korenar was probably miserable getting peppered by pucks in Tucson, taking beating after beating. (june13)

21. Recently, Isac Lundestrom has appeared as one of the top-searched players on Frozen Tools. I’ll break down what he may have to offer in fantasy leagues, in case you’re wondering why he’s a popular search.

Just finishing his second full NHL season after being drafted in the first round (23^rd overall) in 2018, Lundestrom is coming off career highs in goals (16), assists (13), and points (29). He did not score a single power-play point in the limited power-play time he received, but he led the Ducks with four shorthanded points (all goals). That SHG total was also tied for third in the entire league. Although his overall scoring numbers were career bests, he didn’t finish the season on a high note with just three points over his final 20 games – all in one game (April 1 vs. Arizona).

Lundestrom seems penciled into a third-line center role with the Ducks behind Trevor Zegras and Adam Henrique. That doesn’t seem to be ripe with offensive opportunities, but if the Ducks can stockpile some depth over the next few seasons, Lundestrom could develop into a Joel Eriksson Ek type of player. That being said, don’t expect a major breakout from him in the near term. He could be a sneaky add in any leagues that count shorthanded points, but I won't be going out of my way to add him in any of my leagues. I don't have a compelling reason why he's a popular search either.

Have a good week, folks – stay safe!!

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