Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean and Dobber

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1. As we all expected, Nazem Kadri finally picked his team during Bubble Keeper Week! The free agent center signed a seven-year contract worth $49 million total with the Calgary Flames. The scoring fit in Calgary was easy to spot with the offseason departures of Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk. However, I didn’t think Kadri would choose Calgary since he reportedly turned down a trade there in 2019. For much more on the signing fantasy-wise, Mike took care of the Fantasy Take not long after news of the signing. (aug19)

2. In a related move to clear cap space, the Flames have traded Sean Monahan and a 2025 conditional first-round pick to the Montreal Canadiens for future considerations. The conditions for this pick are too lengthy for me to list and explain here, but you can find them if you are looking for some light reading. Cliffy also broke down the Fantasy Take for Monahan, who is trying to get his career back on track after surgeries on both hips.

Acquiring Monahan made more sense for the Habs because we now know that Carey Price will probably start the season on LTIR. According to Canadiens GM Kent Hughes, Price is expected to miss the start of the season, and he may not play at all in 2022-23 because of his injured knee. Price played in just five games last season, so this news isn’t all that surprising. As it stands, the Habs will likely enter the season with a goaltending tandem of Jake Allen and Sam Montembeault, either of who will likely struggle to win most nights. Price may be forced to ride out the remainder of his contract on LTIR, which would be an unfortunate way for his career to end. (aug19)

3. Tyler Toffoli probably didn’t expect to be traded from the Canadiens, a team he signed a four-year free-agent contract with during the 2020 offseason. The Flames signed him for scoring depth, but they didn’t seem to use him as much as they could. Over 37 games with Calgary, Toffoli averaged 15 minutes per game with his two most frequent centers being Mikael Backlund and Sean Monahan. Still, he managed to score 23 points in 37 games, which would work out to a 50-point pace over a full season.

The Flames’ offseason moves should help Toffoli in a big way. When the Flames acquired Toffoli, they had been stacking their top line with Johnny Gaudreau, Matthew Tkachuk, and Elias Lindholm. Now that Gaudreau and Tkachuk are out and Jonathan Huberdeau and Nazem Kadri are in, the Flames will most likely need to spread out their scoring. Toffoli should be on the wing of either Lindholm or Kadri, both of whom reached 80 points in 2021-22. Toffoli has just one 50-point season to his name (2015-16 with Los Angeles), but a second one appears to be well within reach in 2022-23. (aug20)

4. As was predicted here, Jared McCann‘s fantasy value improved by being picked up by the expansion Kraken. McCann led Seattle with 27 goals and 50 points, which were both career highs. It will be interesting to see whether the offseason pickups (Oliver Bjorkstrand, Andre Burakovsky) and a full season of Matty Beniers will help or hurt McCann. In other words, will improved linemates boost McCann’s numbers further, or will the newfound depth bump him down the lineup?

If we look at the contract situation, McCann was the first player in Kraken history to sign a contract extension. His five-year extension for $5 million means that he is viewed as more than a short-term piece for an expansion team trying to get by for the first few seasons. In addition, McCann has a couple of advanced stats that suggest a possible minor improvement; namely, an 8.0 5-on-5 SH% and 971 PDO. That’s why I’m okay with projecting a minor point total increase for McCann. (aug20)

5. Many players experienced a large sudden increase in scoring last season, including veteran Predators centers Ryan Johansen and Matt Duchene. Johansen’s 26 goals was his highest total in his time with the Predators, while his 63 points was his highest total in three seasons. In addition, Johansen recorded 24 power-play points on a Predators power play that was surprisingly just outside of the top 5 in the league (24.4 PP%).

There’s reason to believe Johansen benefitted from some puck luck, though. Several advanced stats were a bit high, including a 22.0 SH%, 11.0 5-on-5 SH%, and 2.9 PTS/60. Those numbers suggest at least somewhat of a decline for Johansen, who isn’t the only Predators player that I believe will drop in scoring (June 18 Ramblings). At the very least, expect a drop in goals, likely below 20 as which has been the case for most of his career. At a deep center position, Johansen probably isn’t someone to prioritize keeping. (aug20)

6. Last offseason, I elected not to keep a goalie in spite of winning this particular league championship of mine with standout goaltending. Philipp Grubauer and Alex Nedeljkovic were both moving to inferior teams, while Tuukka Rask would miss the start of the season with an injury, if he were to return at all. That turned out to be a wise move on my part. This season I will likely keep one goalie, but it won’t be an easy decision. I have to pick between Frederik Andersen and Juuse Saros.

Andersen and Saros are both top-5 goalies by my ranks (Igor Shesterkin, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Jacob Markstrom also included). That means I will be throwing an outstanding fantasy goalie back into the water, possibly to be picked up by someone else early in the draft.

Saros earned more wins last season, but he had the benefit of more starts, partially because of an injury to Andersen late in the season. Carolina is a better team than Nashville and should earn more wins, but Saros should start a few more games because the Predators have an iffier backup goaltending situation (Kevin Lankinen or Connor Ingram) than the Hurricanes (Antti Raanta). The wins might actually even out here.

The save percentage is also similar, with Andersen receiving a slight edge. There’s more separation with the goals-against average, as Andersen benefits from playing in front of a team that is stronger defensively and is less reliant on the goalie. A strong goalie that faces a ton of shots can end up with an outstanding save percentage short term. Yet over time, that style of play can lead to more goals allowed and fewer wins. Carolina has a better SAT% and allows fewer shots per game than Nashville, which makes for a healthier goaltending environment for Andersen. I could perform a much more detailed comparison, particularly by going back more seasons. With this basic level of information, I prefer Andersen here, as I think he’s put his struggles with the Leafs behind him. [Player Compare: Andersen/Saros] (aug19)

7. Full disclosure: Fantasy Hockey Geek also helps me out tremendously with these rankings, compiling a ranking of all of these players based on each category. If you play in a multicategory league, get yours today and you won’t regret it. (aug19)

8. Another decision I need to make involves two power forwards, Chris Kreider and Gabriel Landeskog.

Based on the 2021-22 season only, Kreider looks like the much better player, but Landeskog was limited in terms of games played. Landeskog has missed double-digit games in two of the last three seasons, which should be identified as a concern for him right off the bat. Kreider had the 52-goal season, which has elevated his fantasy stock, but that could be considered a one-off considering that he had never previously had a 30-goal season, let alone a 50-goal season. Another 30-goal season should be a certainty based on his power-play usage, but you’ll clearly have to find assists elsewhere.

This is an interesting one because going back three seasons, the advantage shifts more toward Landeskog. Kreider projects to be as good or slightly better in the remaining categories, so that’s who I would lean with right now. Yet if you’ve followed these players longer than a season, you’ll know this is closer than you’d think.

[Player Compare: Kreider/Landeskog]

One more note: Since this is a keep-4 league, the keeper decisions I make are very year to year. So I’m not as concerned about picking the older player as one might be in a league with more keepers. I’d like to think I have a chance to compete for a title every season. (aug19)

9. Reminder: Tom Wilson‘s knee surgery will keep him out until mid-late November at the earliest, and possibly into 2023. He legitimately could miss half the season and how a 28-year-old power forward will perform once returning from serious knee injury in-season is an open question. He should still be able to put up hits and penalty minutes but whether he can be productive points-wise is very uncertain. (aug18)

10. I will say that I’m interested to see where Evander Kane‘s ADP lands when September rolls around. He played just 43 regular season games for Edmonton but his 82-game paces look like this: 42 goals, 74 points, 114 PIMs, 290 shots, and 257 hits. That would be a patently absurd fantasy season in multi-cat leagues, and done with little power-play production. If he earns a PP1 role? We could easily be looking at a top-10 fantasy player. (aug18)

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11. Jake DeBrusk‘s first game alongside the Bruins' top-line duo in 2021-22 was on January 20^th. From that point through to the end of the season, a span of 46 games, he had 20 goals, 32 points, and 117 shots on target. That would put a 30-goal, 60-point, 200-shot season in reach if that were his role for the entire season.

My problem, as I’ve mentioned in a few Ramblings of late, is that Brad Marchand‘s double hip surgery is a massive concern. If Boston runs a second line of Taylor Hall, David Krejci, and David Pastrnak, that probably means a top line of something like Pavel Zacha with Bergeron and DeBrusk. Not that Zacha is a bad player but he’s a considerable downgrade from Marchand’s offensive prowess.

I have serious concerns about a Bruins top line without Marchand for months being anywhere close to as productive as they’ve been for years now. And even when Marchand returns, with such a serious surgery, there’s no guarantee he’s anything close to the top-level player he’s been for the Bruins. Beyond all that, DeBrusk may not have a top PP role which not only caps his upside even more but threatens to leave him with little in the PPP category for this league. He’s not a player who racks up hit totals and that all leaves a lot of concerns here. (aug18)

12. With Frank Vatrano and Andrew Copp gone, it looks like the right side of the top two lines in New York are open. We should assume that Alexis Lafrenière will take one of those roles, but it would still leave a top-6 right wing role for someone to step into. Skating with either of those top-6 lines would be a great place to be.

Kakko’s problem is that no matter who he skates with, they don’t score a lot. He has over 310 minutes spanning the last two seasons being Mika Zibanejad‘s right winger. In those 310 minutes, the team scored 1.93 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (per Natural Stat Trick). When Zibanejad has anyone but Kakko, that number jumps to 3.15 per 60. That is a huge gap.

It doesn’t stop with Zibanejad, either. He has managed 2.73 goals per 60 over the last two years skating with Filip Chytil and while that’s not a bad number, but not great for fantasy production. The underlying issue here is that if Kakko is skating with Chytil, that likely means he’s skating on the third line, and that means less time on ice. Even if they produce well on a per-minute basis, skating 15 minutes a night without top PP time – which he won’t get unless there are a slew of injuries – isn’t a big boon for fantasy value. In simpler terms, there are a lot of hurdles Kakko needs to leap in order to reach that next level of fantasy production. Not to mention he’s posted 42 hits in 157 career games. No significant PP role, no hits, and a tenuous hold on a top-6 role? Pass. (aug18)

13. Regarding Pierre-Luc Dubois: There aren’t a lot of guys who can post 30 goals, 60 points, a PIM per game, 2.5 shots per game, over 100 hits, and very good PP production. His contract is fine at $6M with that kind of across-the-board production. (aug18)

14. Dominik Kubalik is going to get a chance to resurrect his value in Detroit, though he could end up in a third-line role. All of Jakub Vrana, David Perron, Tyler Bertuzzi, and Lucas Raymond will be higher on the depth chart. As injuries hit, as they do for almost all teams, there’s a chance he moves up the lineup at times in 2022-23. However, he will be way down the list for a prime PP role, which puts him behind Monahan in this regard. Even if Kubalik regains his scoring touch, mostly third-line TOI combined with secondary PP minutes doesn’t bode for a big fantasy season. I don’t think Kubalik has 60-point upside this year even if things break right for him. (aug18)

15. Now that Nazem Kadri isn’t going back to the Avalanche, Valeri Nichushkin looks like he’ll have a top PP role and will be a fixture of the top-6. This is a guy who could put up 25 goals, 65 points, a good plus/minus, good PP production, over 200 shots, and over 100 hits. That kind of across-the-board contribution is something that is rare in fantasy leagues and getting him at this discount is great value. (aug18)

16. A question from a friend: (paraphrasing) Should Jonathan Huberdeau be kept in the second round of a 10-team league?

Not sure if many people realize this, but Huberdeau has nearly as many hits (201) as games played (204) over his last three seasons. In a multi-cat league, he’s actually bringing some value in the hits column, and that matters a lot. I don’t think we should expect a repeat of his 115-point season in Calgary, but a 90-point season with over 200 shots and 80 hits is a very good season. I have no problem keeping Huberdeau as a second-round value. (aug18)

17. Scott Laughton provides a lot of cross-category contributions and he's a bargain locked in at $3 million for each of the next four years. The points aren’t quite there consistently, but he does have one year at a 45-point-pace, and likely the upside for 50 with the right linemates and minutes. The issue is that with Kevin Hayes and Sean Couturier likely healthy to start the year, Laughton likely loses some of the 16 minutes of ice time he averaged per game last year. That will keep the point totals down, but the peripherals will still be excellent. Over a full (healthy) season, his peripherals should be along the lines of 120 shots, 50PIMs, 180 Hits, 55blocks, and 450 FOWs. (aug17)

18. Nico Hischier carries a hefty cap hit, doesn’t shoot or hit a lot, and has zero seasons with more than 60 points. With that said, it looked like he hit another level last year, he’ll take a pile of faceoffs for this team, and the roster is improving around him. Can he reach 20 PPPs and crack the point-per-game mark? If he can, that, with the faceoffs, might make him worth the $7M+ he’ll earn. (aug16)

19. Reader @ChrisCarveth asked: Norris, Larkin and Trochek. I think I’m down to one spot from those guys. Your rankings in FHG have them all fairly close.

Josh Norris is not only a proven top scorer at just 23, but now he’s paid like one. Dylan Larkin is now in his prime at 26, with a budding team around him that is poised to take off in one or two years. Norris’ team, Ottawa, is ready to take off right now.

And then there is 29-year-old Vincent Trocheck, who hasn’t really been the same player since returning from all the ankle and foot stuff he dealt with from 2016 through 2019. But he’s been healthy for the last couple of season and producing middling numbers. Furthermore, now he is playing with Artemi Panarin, likely, as he is replacin g Ryan Strome on that team.

I think it’s best to play it safe with Larkin, who is looking to be a steady and safe 70-plus player for the next few seasons. He’s more proven than Norris. Unless your league counts plus/minus, in which case I would go with Norris. Trocheck is a great sleeper, but that’s the problem – he’s a sleeper, not a guarantee. (aug15)

20. Reader @tragynus asked: Which prospect to keep for down the road, Eklund or McTavish? More interested in highest eventual upside, not who will put up points first.

Flip a coin on this one, but I’m leaning William Eklund. Our FPR has these two with the same upside and a 3YP (points likelihood) that is also extremely close (Mason McTavish with the slight edge there). (aug15)

21. Reader @lusshouse asked: I can only keep one of Buchnevich, Stutzle or Boldy!!! Which one?

I can only keep one of Buchnevich, Stuetzle or Boldy…. !!!

This is Tim Stutzle vs. Pavel Buchnevich to me. I have Stutzle for 63 this year and Buchnevich for 78. But longer term, Stutzle is the guy who could reach 95. This is obviously a shallow league, to be looking at not keeping these guys. Try and trade whichever player will give the best return and keep the other guy. Failing that, if you’re rebuilding you keep Stutzle, if you’re going for it, you keep Buch. (aug15)

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Have a good week, folks – stay safe!!

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