Every Sunday, we’ll share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, and Dobber

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1. We probably wouldn’t have known how strong a goalie Alex Nedeljkovic is if Petr Mrazek hadn’t missed two months with a thumb injury. No goalie who played as many games as Nedeljkovic (23) had a lower GAA (1.90) or SV% (.932), yet he’s still had to split starts with either Mrazek or James Reimer.

In last weekend’s The Journey, Colton Pankiw ranks Ned third behind the more often discussed Kirill Kaprizov and Jason Robertson. I believe Ned deserves to be in the discussion, but I don’t think he should surpass either forward because he’s played less than half of his team’s games. The best seems yet to come for Ned, though. With Mrazek and Reimer both UFAs after the season, Nedeljkovic could very well be the starter for one of the league’s strongest teams as early as next season. (may15)

2. Our writers and other experts through the DobberHockey website have provided their first-round picks as well as their early Stanley Cup predictions. Check them out here. I’m sticking with the Stanley Cup Final prediction that I made before the season (Colorado over Tampa Bay), which isn’t something that I always do. (may15)

3. Mika Zibanejad – Pavel Buchnevich – Alexis Lafreniere : The way that Lafreniere fit in with this scoring line late in the season makes his prospects for next season appear particularly promising. Lafreniere’s splits by quarter show gradual improvement as he has gained more NHL experience. In spite of logging what appears to be the equivalent of low-end second-unit power-play minutes, Lafreniere did not record a single power-play point all season. More power-play time and better conversion will surely help the 2020 first overall pick’s numbers next season. (may9)

4. Just as Lafreniere, the most-recent Draft’s first overall pick, ended his season on a high note, the third-overall pick recorded his first NHL hat trick (and first multi-goal game, for that matter) late last week. Tim Stutzle enjoyed a beauty of a game with three goals (one on the power play), a plus-3, and five shots. Stutzle had entered that matchup with just one point in his last six games, so as much as the 19-year-old has a high ceiling, he’s not necessarily consistent enough to be at must-start levels at this point.

Stutzle’s linemates have also been impressive: Connor Brown, who finished with 21 goals and a career-high 17.1 SH%, as well as rookie Shane Pinto (seven points in 12 NHL games), who looks like he will be a regular on the Sens next season. For more on Pinto, see his Dobber Prospects profile. (may9)

5. Josh Norris is looking very promising as a point-per-game scorer in Ottawa in the very near future. They’ve been giving him the first-line treatment all year and his numbers have climbed steadily. He had 15 points in the first 30 games and 20 in the next 26. (may10)

6. Tyson Barrie will finish the season as the leading scorer among defensemen and among the league leaders in power-play points among defensemen. Compared to Toronto in 2019-20, Barrie has increased his point total while playing 15 fewer games. Much of his improvement in Edmonton has to do with the fact that he is averaging more than a minute more of power-play time than he did in Toronto, where he often had to split duties with Morgan Rielly.

If you’re a Barrie keeper owner, you better hope he finds a way to somehow re-sign with the Oilers. That may not happen, as Barrie is expected to hit the free agent market seeking a five- or six-year contract (Oilers Nation). Where he lands and whether he has any competition for PP1 will factor into his long-term value. (may15)

7. As expected, Roope Hintz is expected to undergo surgery next week for the groin tendon issue that bothered him for much of the season. Scoring 43 points in 41 games with this nagging issue is quite the feat, which is something to consider when valuing Hintz for next season. Hopefully the surgery will make him right going forward, so that you don’t have to track every game to confirm he is playing. The good news for the Stars is that all of Hintz, Alexander Radulov, and Ben Bishop are expected to be ready for training camp. (may15)

8. Recalled this week by the Blues, Klim Kostin is a guy I’ve been excited to see in the NHL since he was drafted. I have hopes he can fill a similar role to Max Comtois, playing middle-6 minutes and putting up 20-goal and triple-digit-hit seasons. He still has a ways to go before he can be like Comtois, but that he’s even in the NHL is a good start. (may13)

9. David Quinn was fired by the New York Rangers. This seemed likely after everyone was cleaned out following the Artemi Panarin–Tom Wilson incident. We have no idea what was going on behind closed doors, but new GMs tend to like to have their own coaches, and here we are.

I am ambivalent about Quinn. Maybe he’s a good coach, I don’t really know. What I do know is that he purposefully had a Tony DeAngelo–Jack Johnson pairing for a few games earlier in the year, and anyone with even passing knowledge of the NHL player pool knew what a complete disaster that would be, and it was: 0-3 in goals for/against, 41.7% expected goal share. It is just one example of where a really, obviously bad idea was really obvious to everyone except the guy making the lineup. And when you’re that blind to your players’ deficiencies, you probably need to go. (may13)

Alex wrote about the firing here.

10. Henrik Borgstrom signed a two-year extension with the Chicago Blackhawks, carrying a cap hit of $1M per season. He was traded to the Blackhawks as part of the Brett Connolly cap dump from the Panthers, as it was clear the team was ready to move on from The Borg.

Where his future goes, who knows. But he will have the opportunity to crack the lineup as the keys get turned over to the kids. Just look at the lineups the team threw on the ice this year; Borgstrom will have a shot. It is all up to him to make the best of it. (may13)

11. Boston’s cap situation is also reaaallly interesting going into next season. They have only $50 million tied up in 15 players, and that’s not including Dan Vladar‘s ELC which could be the second-half of a goaltending duo next year (with Jeremy Swayman). The Bruins could then bring back David Krejci at a reasonable number, maybe two years with an AAV of $6 million.

Taylor Hall has no reason to test free-agency either, and would be great to lock up long-term at a similar AAV to where he is now. That puts the Bruins at about $65 million, and only a couple roster slots still in need of filling. The Bruins also have the flexibility to shop Jake DeBrusk to bring back something solid as well, because DeBrusk just doesn’t seem to be fitting in at the moment. For depth options, the Bruins have a few guys knocking on the door like Urho Vaakanainen and Jack Studnicka, and that means they can spend the offseason going big-game fishing. (may12)

12. Shout out to a good rookie year from Ty Smith. He finished with 23 points in 48 games playing for a bottom-5 team scoring-wise. His 5-on-5 primary assist rate put him between Adam Fox and Sam Girard, which is very good company.

He has some work to do defensively, but that is the case for almost any rookie defenseman that steps into the league. He showed that he can drive the bus offensively, at least a little bit, and that’s precisely what this team needs, and what he needs to bring to the team. The defense can come along in a couple years, they need him to show offensive upside, and he has.

This is exciting for the team. He looks like a true top-pair guy of the future, a true PP1 QB. It might take some time for the rest of the team’s talent to catch up to him, but his upside is sky-high 2-3 years down the road, I believe. Then again, I have been wrong about young defensemen before. I thought Vince Dunn would be in the top PP role by now, and, well, not so much. (may11)

13. Something I find kind of funny is Kris Letang‘s 2021 season. I guess not funny, but I think if people wondered if any player would stay healthy in a COVID-ridden season with a condensed schedule, Letang would have been one of the biggest concerns. In fact, he only missed one game all year. Going back four years now, he’s played over 86 percent of Pittsburgh’s games, or about 71 games per 82. In the four seasons prior to that, he averaged playing in a little over 66 percent of Pittsburgh’s games, or about 55 games per 82.

Not that Letang is a picture of health now, but there is a giant chasm between expecting a player to play 55 games and expecting a player to play over 70. He currently sits third in scoring among defensemen with 45 points and combined for over 150 hits+blocks in those 55 contests. It was a very good season for Letang.

What about next year? Well, we’ll have to see what Pittsburgh looks like now that Brian Burke is in charge. But at the least, Letang’s injury issues are no longer the concern they were a couple years ago. I still don’t have enough confidence to take him as a top-10 pick among blue liners or anything, but he’s definitely not someone to just cross off your draft list anymore. (may11)

14. Chris Kreider said that it was back spasms that kept him out of the lineup late in the year. It is good news that it is nothing significant but any back problem for a guy on the wrong side of 30 years old is always a concern. We should note that he still cracked 20 goals in 50 games, but he did so while shooting nearly 20 percent and his shot rate fell to a five-year low. Is it something that will bother him next year? Because if his shot rate keeps declining, and this beast of a person is struggling with a back problem, well, it could be very bad news for his fantasy value. (may11)

15. What happened to Anthony Cirelli? He raced out the gate like a bat of hell with 15 points in 17 games, but then stumbled to just seven in his last 33. In the second half, he played with Steven Stamkos a lot more (before Stamkos got hurt) and his PP ice time doubled. And for that his production…plummeted? Some guys just perform better when they’re buried in a defensive role with weaker linemates. It’s odd, but I’ve seen it before. (may10)

16. I think the Flames are ripe for an injection of youth next year. Sean Monahan needs linemates and Dillon Dube and Derek Ryan aren’t it. Will Andrew Mangiapane take the next step? Does Glenn Gawdin make the team? Or could they turn to one of their up-and-coming phenoms – either Conor Zary (24 points in 15 WHL games) or Jakob Pelletier (43 points in 28 QMJHL games)? (may10)

17. Brandon Hagel has quietly built himself into an interesting fantasy option. Besides unexpectedly making the team a good two years before my expectation, he then (just as unexpectedly) stuck for the entire season. Once he got into the lineup, Chicago never took him out. His ice time has slowly increased, moving from 12:49 per game in the first quarter to 15:44 in the final quarter. His linemates used to include names like “Carpenter” and “Kampf”. Now? They include “DeBrincat” and “Dach”. Next season, he will battle Philipp Kurashev and Alex Nylander for a key spot in the top six. And while Hagel probably has the lowest upside of the three, I am starting to believe that he is closer of the three to being a sure contributor. It’s only a question of if that will be a 35- to 40-point player in the bottom six, or a 55- to 60-point guy on the second line. (may10)

18. All three Chicago goalies are signed to one-way deals next year. And looking at the numbers, not one of them had starter-worthy stats. The Hawks have anointed Kevin Lankinen as their guy and will keep pushing that narrative. With Jonathan Toews (hopefully) returning next season, it is doubtful that the team has the ability to bring on an established netminder. (may10)

19. Alex Wennberg's goals/assists ratio has changed considerably since moving from Columbus. He finished with a career-high 17 goals this season, but a career-low 12 assists. His points-per-game average has improved over that of his last two seasons in Columbus, which makes him one of many players whose value has improved with a move to Florida this season. (may9)

20. According to Chris Johnston of HNIC, Victor Hedman has been nagged by an issue that will require surgery after the season, but he plans to play in the playoffs anyway. This is something to keep in mind in your playoff pools, as he might not be 100 percent. The question is will his recovery time spill into next season (and clear up cap space for the Bolts again!)… (may9)

21. You could feel it in the air last Saturday. Connor McDavid would hit 100 points, even though he still needed four points to get there. How incredible is 100 points in 53 games? For starters, it’s nearly two points per game (1.89 PTS/GP, to be exact). If he played a full season, that would be a 155-point pace, which we have not seen since… (looks down)… Mario Lemieux in 1995-96 (161 points). Yes, I know, he would have to do this over a full season. And he’d have to do it against a wider variety of teams than the somewhat defensively-challenged units in the North. Barring injury, does anyone think he won’t lead the league in scoring next season? (may9)

Have a good week, folks – be safe!!

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