The NHL Draft is one of my favourite nights on the hockey calendar. It represents hope across the whole league, it's a special night for 32 new draftees, and there are always rumours and trades to go with the festivities.

We're in the lull now where deals aren't usually announced at this point until we get Gary Bettman on the podium, though there was still a flurry yesterday, so you never know. I would expect there to be a lot of jostling this year, and the tiers seem to have the relevant players running a lot deeper this year, so there will be some huge discrepancies between draft lists from one team to the next.

It seems to me like there is a tier that drops off around 10-12, another one that drops off around 20, and from there it goes all the way into the 40s. Everyone's list is different though, so there will likely be teams who have a top-10 player still on the board at 20 and will want to trade up to get them. I think we see a lot more movement up and down in the draft order past pick #15, than we have seen in previous years.

In one of my leagues, a 24-team keep-30 league, I traded Devon Levi in order to get back into the first round this year (with a couple extra picks coming back too – and in a four-team deal no less). I landed at pick #18, and what I have learned from drafting in dynasties, is that you never know how things are going to go. I have a few players in the 17-19 range that I would be happy with taking, but often you end up with a player a fair bit higher on your list than where the pick actually is. I'm hoping for someone in my top-10 to slip, but more likely I'll end up with someone in my 11-14 range.

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Moving to the actual draft, I wanted to get some notes out:

Outside of Connor Bedard and maybe Adam Fantilli, none of these players should be expected to make an impact next year, and probably not the year after either. They may be excellent players, some more NHL ready than others, but set the expectations. Everyone being concerned about Michkov being 3+ years away. In four years he is going to be a top-five talent in this class, and for those in cap leagues, he will also still be on his ELC at the time.

David Reinbacher is someone that I could see rushed to the NHL, as teams really struggle to find or evaluate quality defencemen. The team picking Reinbacher is going to be in desperate need of a defenceman, and that opens up the door for him to make his debut very soon. Whether he ends up going to San Jose, Arizona, Philadelphia, Washington, Vancouver, or Buffalo, he could very well be an 80-game regular by 2024-25. That isn't necessarily better for his development or his ceiling, but for leagues where you don't want to wait on defencemen because they take longer to make an impact than forwards, Reinbacher could be the exception.

Because this class is light on top defencemen, there will be a few teams that reach for some. I expect at least three to be gone by pick 11, which will leave room for a lot of forwards to slide.

On that note, Zach Benson is going to fall in the draft, probably outside of the top-eight, maybe outside of the top-12, and if he goes outside of the top-15, I will be shocked… though it is the NHL, so I won't be surprised if that makes any sense. He may be on the shorter end, but from everything I have read and absorbed about the draft, he is going to be one of the best players there. No one seems concerned about Connor Bedard being five-foot-ten, so why are we so enamored by the fact that Benson is five-foot-nine?

There are a few players that will still be selected fairly early in fantasy drafts despite the fact that they will likely fall in the NHL draft. There players sometimes hit in all the right ways like Logan Stankoven, or they show that they fell for a reason. Andrew Cristall, Gavin Brindley, and Jayden Perron are three such names to keep an eye on this year. All three have big (or short) question marks, but they are also some of the most talented players in the crop, with very high production upside at the NHL. The problem is that we also have to weigh the likelihood that the player makes it, while NHL teams seem to weigh that a lot more than our fellow fantasy GMs.

To contrast the short players, it seems that a few of the larger players in Colby Barlow, Quentin Musty, Charlie Stramel, and Samuel Honzek also have a fairly wide range of opinion on them. Generally, these players are viewed as safer because their size offers the perception that they should make a decent bottom-six player even if their skillset doesn’t quiet pan out as one would hope. The larger players also take a little longer to develop on average, but the payoff can be tremendous. Expect these kinds of players not to slip on draft day. If they do though, then that raises a bit of a red flag in my eyes.

Luckily, to try and contextualize this for fantasy hockey, one of my favourite forum threads of the year is back: the "Post Your League's Draft Results Here" thread. It's a great tool to get a sense of where other leagues are valuing and drafting players, so that you know when you might need to trade up, when you could try to trade back, and who might be available around your picks. There are only a handful in there so far, so if you league has drafted already, please try to add to the data pool!

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We had a few trades yesterday, and while Cliffy covered them all with his write ups, I wanted to give some quick hits on my thoughts here too.

P.L. Dubois to LA

[Cliffy's take]

I'm not a huge fan of Dubois, but I do think this is a good landing spot for him. He should do well this year, but at the same time keep in mind that his last career year came right as he was due for a new contract. Now that he has secured the bag, the incentive may not be there. For someone that has also been extremely picky with his team, that worries me.

I also like the dead for Winnipeg. Though everyone is saying they need to restart/rebuild, I think this trade actually makes them a better team for next year. Their depth up front was atrocious this past season, and now they have a solid top-six. They still have Connor Hellebuyck (for now) and they have a deep and mobile D-core too. It would not surprise me at all to see them jump into the playoffs this year.

Someone in one of my leagues tried to buy-low on Francesco Pinelli from me today because with Dubois in the fold it theoretically would affect his timeline. Actually, I think the opposite. This trade cleared out more room for the remaining prospects such as Alex Turcotte and Pinelli, and if they make their debut once Anze Kopitar moves on as a UFA in a year, or on the wing over the next few seasons, then I don't think their value has been bumped down at all. With less players in front of them and a better team, that's a good thing for all involved.

Alex Newhook to MTL

[Cliffy's take]

The Habs did this last year with everyone questioning them for acquiring Kirby Dach, and it worked out pretty well. I think Martin St. Louis as a coach will be excellent for Newhook, who hasn't yet been able to put all the pieces of the puzzle together to reach his potential. He paced for 30 points last season, but he's approaching his breakout threshold (BT), could get some better deployment, and a lot more minutes with Montreal. I would be very surprised to see him put up less than 45 next year (assuming he's healthy), with lots of room to post a better year than that. With him still being 40 games from his BT, it may be more so in the second half that we get the bigger production.

Kevin Hayes to STL

[Cliffy's Take]

I'm a little more bullish on Hayes' value in STL than Cliffy is. I think there is a lot to like with some talented wingers, a team that has assets including the three first-rounders to be able to add another piece or two, and not a ton in the way of top-centres. Robert Thomas is the first-line centre, but that was never going to be Hayes' role anyways. Brayden Schenn has played some centre and some wing over the last couple of years, and so has Hayes. We could see them split time as the second-line centre, though I think Hayes is more suited to a scoring role at this point, while Schenn can still be a matchup forward. Neither is going to be in the top 100 fantasy players next season, but there is still some upside.

For the Tyler Toffoli deal, Cliffy’s write up here covered all of my thoughts.

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Via @FrozenTools

Your Off-Night and B2B leaders for the 23-24 season pic.twitter.com/2OZm2Vj45a

— Five Hole Fantasy Hockey (@FHFHockey) June 27, 2023

We can thank the FHFH crew for running the FrozenTools reports already with the new schedule, to show us the best teams to own for goalie B2Bs, overall off-night leaders, and those teams whose players you should target for heavier H2H playoff schedules. The off-night leaders are again Anaheim and Washington, and this may be the first time in a long time that Anaheim becomes more fantasy relevant as a team than Washington is. The Ducks have some very fun fantasy assets to work with now.

New Jersey leads the league in B2B games, and after trading Mackenzie Blackwood, it means that there should be some solid value for Akira Schmid.

The top teams for the H2H playoff schedules being Edmonton, Ottawa, and Seattle is really interesting. Seattle isn't a very heavy fantasy lineup, but that should mean that there will be streamers that they can provide when the time comes. Ottawa and Edmonton are top-heavy teams, so you either own the fantasy relevant players, or they will be against you. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl become even more unbeatable with the added games played. Do whatever you can to get one on your team this year.

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For those of you waiting on news about Patrice Bergeron or David Krejci:

Here's Cam Neely's comments from Nashville on both Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci's futures — as well as the Bruins' approach this offseason: pic.twitter.com/x9UFgSoYfI

— Conor Ryan (@ConorRyan_93) June 27, 2023

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I'll be taking a break from the Ramblings for a couple weeks in July, but I'll be back before the end of the month. There will be a few different writers filling the Wednesday slot. See you in a few weeks. In the meantime, you can find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean if you have any fantasy hockey questions or comments.