Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Puneet Sharma, and Dobber

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The 2025-26 Fantasy Guide is available for download! Projections by team and by point totals, sleepers, drafted players, rookies, goalies, advanced stats, and much more!

The French-language version of the Guide can be purchased here.

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1. Training camps officially opened Thursday, and there was a fair bit of injury news coming out. The best spot to find that all in one place? The FrozenTools player newsfeed. News items were injuries to Mats Zuccarello and Mackenzie Blackwood which will keep them out of the early weeks of the season, and Anze Kopitar announcing that this season would be his last. Minor injuries to Jack Eichel and David Pastrnak for example could linger into the season, but these aren’t ones that are affecting their draft stocks yet.

There are also plenty of line combos to overreact to, like Matias Maccelli getting the first look with Auston Matthews, Elmer Soderblom being slotted beside Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond, and David Tomasek skating alongside Connor McDavid. At this point though, I hope you don’t put too much draft capital into these, and instead that you still have a week or two for things to settle before you do get to your drafts. (sept19)

2. Back by popular request, I’m running through the top-50 by ADP on Yahoo (well 51 since there’s an ADP tie at 50), and giving a quick note on whether I’m targeting them or not, and how I feel about them for the upcoming season.

Let’s get rolling:

(1) – Connor McDavid (C): Not too much else to this. He’s the best player, has the highest odds of finishing as the top fantasy player, and if you’re picking someone else at #1 then you’re probably either overthinking things, or your league has some very weird categories.

(Tied at 2) – Leon Draisaitl (C/LW): The wing eligibility here is big for a player who wins faceoffs and produces as much offence as Leon does. It’s personal preference on him versus either of these next two picks.

(Tied at 2) – Nathan MacKinnon (C): After finishing as the top fantasy skater last year, plenty of drafters are jumping on MacKinnon to try to get the player who might be the best bet to beat McDavid as the best fantasy skater again this season. A healthy Gabriel Landeskog in place of Jonathan Drouin could make a big difference too for the Avs.

(4) – Nikita Kucherov (RW): At 32, poolies are starting to wonder if Kuch is going to see his scoring numbers drop off, but with the kind of skills he possesses, odds are that the scoring keeps up for at least another couple years. He is the reigning Art Ross winner after all.

(Tied at 5) – Cale Makar (D): The undisputed top defenseman is only one step down from this next group of forwards in scoring, and still provides most of the usual peripherals you want in a D-man. I drafted him in the top-10 last year and won my league. I would do so again in the five-to-ten range.

(Tied at 5) – Kirill Kaprizov (LW): I was lucky enough to nab Kirill in round two last year, but it’s not happening again this time around. He’s a 100-point player if he’s healthy the whole year, and Minnesota was a top team in the West before his injury last year. (sept17)

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3. To pick up from the Wednesday Ramblings (above), we're starting at 52 after we covered the top 51 players by ADP on Wednesday. You can find that article linked here.

(52) – Adam Fox (D): One of the most under-appreciated players in fantasy hockey over the last few years has to be Adam Fox. He slipped under a 70-point pace last year for the first time since his rookie season, and odds are he’ll be back over the mark again this year as the Rangers regroup. Offensively he’s a steal at this point relative to the other blueliners available.

(53) – Mackenzie Weegar (D): Weegar is also worth looking at in this range, but his value is from his all-around production as opposed to pure offence. The issue with Weegar is that Zayne Parekh looms as a threat on the power play, so I’m not sure I would jump on him quite yet.

(54) – Darcy Kuemper (G): After putting together a Vezina caliber season for is first year in LA, Kuemper is going to have to follow it up as a 35-year-old who is now playing behind new acquisitions Cody Ceci and Brian Dumoulin. He’s not going to be repeating last years numbers, so be careful how high you reach on him. 

(55) – Dustin Wolf (G): I touched on Wolf last week after he signed his new deal, and I expect him to come out of the gate with some fantastic numbers. The issue will be keeping it up all season, but that’s something that can be sorted out in January.

(56) – Cole Caufield (LW): Caufield finally hit the 70-point mark last season, despite a drop in his shot rate. He had a lot more success being more selective with his shooting, but fantasy owners are hoping that number ticks back up. It’s a bit of a risk, but the upside for 40 goals and nearly 300 shots is there. (sept19)

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4. We finally got updates on a lot of players on whom fantasy managers have been anticipating updates.

Earlier in the summer, got word that Florida forward Matthew Tkachuk would miss the start of the season and that it was likely to drag well into the regular season. We got an update, of sorts, on that front, and it does seem he’s going to miss at least a couple of months: Matthew Tkachuk (lower body) is out until roughly December, per GM Barry Zito.

Using the schedule planner from Frozen Tools, if Tkachuk were to return for Florida’s first game in December, he will miss 24 games. If he returns two weeks after that, he’ll miss 32 games, and if he returns just after Christmas, he’ll miss 36. So, depending on when his December return is, he could miss anywhere from 30-45% of the season. (sept18)

5. More injury notes:

– Artemi Panarin left Friday’s practice with a lower-body injury. Following practice, new Rangers coach Mike Sullivan labeled Panarin’s status as “precautionary”, as this is early in training camp. This doesn’t seem like a serious injury, so there is probably no need to move Panarin down your draft boards unless he misses more practices and even preseason games. Panarin has been the picture of health in recent seasons, only missing two games over the past three seasons. It is also worth mentioning that Panarin is in a contract year, with his seven-year contract signed in 2019 in its final season.

– Jack Eichel resumed practicing on Friday after missing Thursday’s practice because of a “little tweak” as described by Golden Knights coach Bruce Cassidy. Like Panarin, Eichel is in a contract year. This is turning out to be quite a season for players on the final year of their contracts with Connor McDavid, Kirill Kaprizov, and Kyle Connor also among the notable names.

– Zeev Buium missed Friday’s practice after suffering an upper-body injury on Thursday. According to Wild coach John Hynes, the injury is not believed to be serious. Buium is considered to be in a training camp battle with Brock Faber and Jared Spurgeon to be on the top power play. With three different defensemen battling for one spot, I don’t recommend drafting any of them with a high pick in single-season leagues. For what it’s worth, Buium was on the top power play for the Wild in their first-round series. Missed time in camp could shift the odds toward Faber or Spurgeon, though. (sept20)

6. A significant note on Utah goaltender Connor Ingram: GM Bill Armstrong says Connor Ingram will not be at camp. He and Ingram have agreed that he will go through waivers and try to find another NHL home.

Ingram has spent time in the Players’ Assistance Program following the death of his mother, and it seems as if he and the team are just ready for a fresh start. That is not necessarily a bad thing, and let’s hope he lands on his feet and shows as well as he did a couple of years ago. (sept18)

7. A bit of an update on Colorado goaltender Mackenzie Blackwood:

@runwriteAarif – Blackwood: offseason injury, week-to-week, missing time in camp, hopeful for start of the season or the first week or two.

It doesn’t seem as if anything is too serious, but the potential to miss the start of the season is not ideal for any player. Something fantasy managers need to be mindful of. (sept18)

8. On Zach Hyman:

@DNBsports – Oilers' Zach Hyman said he isn't ready to start training camp Thursday (dislocated wrist). He said he's skating on his own and is continuing to progress. No timeline given for game action. He expects to be at least practicing with teammates by the start of the season.

We have to wait until he starts shooting before we get too excited about him returning to the ice, but hopefully this is more along the lines of Blackwood where it’s a couple of weeks missed of the regular season, and not a month or more. (sept18)

9. Tampa Bay announced a surgery for forward Nick Paul:

@Diandra_loux: Julien BriseBois says Nick Paul has an upper body injury. He needed surgery last Friday. They expect he will be out until the first part of November.

Paul has some multi-cat value in medium- and deep-sized formats, but this is also important for Brandon Hagel. Paul is one of the players who can take top PP time away from Hagel, so this is a bit of security, though Oliver Bjorkstrand still lurks. (sept18)

10. Corey Perry‘s injury while skating last week turned out to be significant, as he will be sidelined for about 6-8 weeks following knee surgery. A 2024 Stanley Cup playoff hero for the Oilers with 10 goals in 22 games, Perry signed a one-year free agent contract with the Kings on July 1. Now 40 years old, Perry won’t likely make a major impact fantasy-wise, but he should provide some bottom-6 depth for the Kings and perhaps even second-unit power-play usage once he is ready to return. (sept14)

11. Mason McTavish still remains unsigned and has been skating with the Ottawa 67s of the OHL. One downside if you have McTavish stock is that he is missing out on learning new coach Joel Quenneville’s system, which might put him behind the 8-ball even if he signs before the season starts. According to Elliotte Friedman, the Ducks want to lock up McTavish long-term but a gap still exists between the two sides. Anaheim has more cap space than anyone in the league, so fitting McTavish in that way is not an issue. It’s just a difference between what the team and player believe he is worth, as well as agreement on the term.

Meanwhile, Luke Hughes and the Devils still haven’t reached agreement on a long-term deal. One burning question for fantasy teams is whether Hughes or Dougie Hamilton will be the defenseman on the Devils’ top power play. Hughes’s absence from training camp gives Hamilton the upper hand in terms of practicing with the top unit, even if Hughes has the higher long-term power-play upside. Hughes had an 84.2% PP IPP last season compared to 41.7% for Hamilton, yet Hamilton has been the preferred option due to experience (and with that, contract). The sooner this is resolved, the better this is for anyone with Hughes stock.

Seamus Casey, who showed offensive upside early last season and during brief callups, could be in the Devils’ opening-night lineup if Hughes isn’t. I can’t help but think Simon Nemec would benefit as well, although he is a different shot defenseman than Hughes and is already projected to receive second-unit power-play time.

Luke Evangelista, Alexander Holtz, and Rasmus Kupari are the other restricted free agents that still remain unsigned. (sept20)

12. It was great to hear Friedman talk about the DobberHockey Fantasy Guide! (Yes, it was an ad, for those of you who don’t like commercials of any kind.) Regardless, don’t be the one in your league who misses out.

Of course, something mentioned in the ad that you are probably already aware of if you are a Dobber regular is that the Guide is constantly updated. That includes a page that lists players on PTOs (titled Training Camp Invites). Although many of the players listed won’t crack an NHL roster and most shouldn’t be targeted in fantasy leagues, a few might find a way to crack fantasy relevance this season.

For example: It was surprising to see a defenseman that reached 40 points in the prior season not land an NHL contract, but the best that Matt Grzelcyk could do was land a PTO with the Blackhawks. Still, Grzelcyk has to be at the top of the list in terms of potential fantasy upside for his ability to contribute to a power play (career-high 15 PPP in 2024-25).

According to Blackhawks coach Jeff Blashill, the team plans to sign Grzelcyk if their young defensemen don’t appear to be NHL-ready. But if they are ready, Grzelcyk probably won’t receive a contract. The three that jump to mind are Sam Rinzel, Artyom Levshunov, and Kevin Korchinski. All of them have the upside to contribute in fantasy leagues, but the Blackhawks have a much bigger issue than assembling the strongest fantasy team. Only one defenseman under contract (Connor Murphy) has celebrated his 25^th birthday, so NHL experience is a major issue on this roster. Grzelcyk might not be viewed as a strong defensive defenseman, but he is 31 years old and blocked 101 shots in 2024-25.

If Grzelcyk can make the Hawks’ roster, he has a decent chance of being a popular waiver-wire add at some point during the season. (sept20)

13. My last couple of Ramblings have talked about the concept of arbitrage drafting. That idea of arbitrage simply means that when looking at two players with similar projections at the same position, drafting the player with a much lower ADP is the player to target. It sounds obvious, and yet there are several good arbitrage opportunities every season.

Last week, we discussed defencemen, and we moved to wingers on Tuesday. Today, we are rounding out the skaters by looking at centres. We are using positional and ADP data from Fantrax, so position assignments and ADP values will vary on different sites. We are using my personal projections which project each player for 82 games, only limiting the games played for skaters we know are injured long-term like Matthew Tkachuk. The categories we’re using are goals, assists, power-play points, shots, hits, and blocks.

Sidney Crosby (C, ADP: 32.4) and Connor Bedard (C, ADP: 71.7)

There is something to be said for consistency, and Crosby had been exactly that in these late stages of his career with four straight seasons of at least 30 goals, 50 assists, and 200 shots. That makes him 1 of 4 players, along with Leon Draisaitl, Nathan MacKinnon, and Mikko Rantanen, to post that stat line in each of the last four campaigns (per Hockey Reference). It feels like we’re all waiting for the bottom to fall out of his production now that he’s in his late 30s (whom among us can’t relate) but he just keeps chugging along.

With that said, it is notable that my projected stat line for him and Bedard this season are close:

Crosby does have the edge in goals, assists, and hits, but none of them are gigantic differences. The 2025-26 Dobber Hockey Draft Guide have both Crosby and Bedard with similar numbers in all categories except goals, where the guide has him for 25. In both cases, Crosby is projected to have the better season, but it’s fairly close, and not worth over three rounds of value between picks 30 and 70.

The goals are what stands out, and a big reason for my projection is the improvement on Chicago’s blue line. Both Wyatt Kaiser and Alex Vlasic took steps forward in their transition tracking data while both Artyom Levshunov and Sam Rinzel are high-end prospects. This is a young blue line, but even without Seth Jones, this looks like Chicago’s best puck-moving defence group since probably the COVID bubble season, and certainly in Bedard’s short career. The forward group still needs work, but teams can’t generate offence without their defencemen being able to move the puck, and that is helping Bedard’s projection a lot.

There is reasonable hesitation around Bedard given the step back in his sophomore season and Chicago’s utter lack of forward depth, but there is now a talented blue line to help make up those deficiencies, and it makes Bedard a good draft value this season. (sept18)

14. Nick Suzuki (C, 52.8) and Robert Thomas (C, ADP: 75.9)

As a Habs fan, it pains me to say that in multi-cat formats like this, I think all their top skaters are being overvalued. Most drafts I’ve done have seen Cole Caufield go in the third round, Suzuki in the fourth, and both Ivan Demidov and Lane Hutson in the top-100. All are or will be great players, but this is a multi-cat format, and Suzuki just doesn’t have the peripherals to justify a pick around the top-50. So, let’s cut to the chase and look at the projections for he and Thomas this season:

The goals, shots, and power-play points are close, Suzuki has a decided edge in hits and blocks, and Thomas has the sizeable edge in assists. Put it all together and they have a relatively similar overall outlook, and that is what makes it worth saving two rounds of value and going with Thomas.

What concerns me for Suzuki is his ice time. Up until Kirby Dach‘s injury on February 22^nd, Suzuki was averaging 19:28 per game in ice time. After Dach’s injury, that exploded to 21:23 per game. Dach missing from the lineup added nearly two minutes per game to Suzuki’s profile, and he went on a tear with 35 points in his next 25 games. If everyone is healthy, I think coach Martin St. Louis would like to keep Suzuki in the 19- to 20-minute range, and that’s much different from skating 21 to 22 minutes a night.

That shift in ice time would put Suzuki and Thomas on relatively equal footing, and Thomas has been the more productive player on a per-minute basis in each of the last four seasons. Overall, I do have Suzuki as the better fantasy player this season, but it’s really close, and not worth two rounds of value between picks 50 and 75. (sept18)

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15. Here are excerpts from Tuesday's Ramblings and the concept of arbitrage drafting for wingers:

Jason Robertson (LW, ADP: 27.3) and Nikolaj Ehlers (LW, ADP: 68.3)

Here are my 82-game projections for these two supremely talented wingers:

Aside from Robertson having an edge in hits (though not a high total), these two are projected for fairly similar seasons. It isn’t as far-fetched as the ADPs might make it seem, as the last two years have seen Robertson average just five more goals and seven more assists per 82 games than Ehlers. That has also been accomplished by Robertson getting top-line usage and Ehlers getting second- or third-line usage in Winnipeg.

A lot of this will come down to Ehlers getting more (better) usage in Carolina. He won’t supplant Seth Jarvis as the team’s top winger, but Jarvis may be moved to the middle anyway as the team continues its multi-year search for a third centre to go with Sebastian Aho and Jordan Staal. Regardless, just being used as one of the team’s top-3 wingers would give Ehlers at least an additional 30 seconds per game of even-strength ice time (I have him projected as one of their top-3 wingers). Add that to a regular top PP role on a heavily-used top unit like he was in Winnipeg, and he’s in line for about 16:30 per game in ice time, which would be a four-year high. Just that small jump in ice time is enough to push Ehlers to nearly a point-per-game status, which is in Robertson’s range.

The saving grace for Robertson is that with a new coach in town, maybe he gets more ice time himself. He has had two straight years of declining TOI and fell under 18 minutes a game in 2024-25 for the first time since his rookie season. If he gets bumped back up to where he was a couple of years ago, then he likely has the better season.

With all that said, Robertson is being drafted as a second- or third-round pick while Ehlers is going between rounds 6-8 depending on the site. Even if Robertson ends up with a few more goals and assists, it isn’t enough to justify the gap between the two. If drafters are worried about Ehlers’ track record of staying healthy, that is understandable, but this seems like a clear opportunity to save a lot of draft capital by taking Ehlers several rounds later. (sept16)

16. Kirill Marchenko (RW, ADP: 74.5) and Bryan Rust (RW, ADP: 108.9)

Here in the battle of the Metro Division we have a young star on a rising team and an underrated producer on an aging team. All told, these two players have very similar outlooks:

Marchenko has an edge in projected assists, shots, and power-play points while Rust has an edge in projected blocks and hits. The goals are near-identical. Overall, these two guys look like the same overall value for the 2025-26 season.

The trepidation around Rust is understandable: he missed 11 games last year and 20 games the year before, he’s on the wrong side of 30 years old playing for a team that seems destined for a top-5 draft pick, and they have a new coach in town. There are a lot of variables that can go wrong here, but it’s worth keeping in mind his last two seasons have seen him average 36 goals and 38 assists every 82 games, and that’s with modest power-play production. If the Pittsburgh power play is as good as it was last year (they were 12^th by goals per minute), then Rust can push 20 PPPs and not only is a threat for a 30-30 season, but even a 35-35 season. No matter what we think of the Penguins, he is still the team’s top right winger and skating next to Sidney Crosby both at even strength and on the power play. That matters.

It isn’t as if I’m particularly low on Marchenko; most ADPs I’ve seen have him somewhere between picks 75-100, and my ADP for him (including goalies) is between pick 80-90. So, Marchenko’s value seems fine. It is just that Rust is being grossly undervalued as most ADPs have him between picks 100-150 and my ADP for him is literally two picks behind Marchenko. This is a good spot to bolster a fantasy roster elsewhere in rounds 7-8 by foregoing Marchenko and taking Rust a few rounds later. (sept16)

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17. The Columbus Blue Jackets sent a 2026 sixth-round pick to Philadelphia while retaining Ivan Fedotov‘s full $3.275 million cap hit. In reality, they’ll only pay $775,000 in salary. Fedotov was a seventh-round pick of the Flyers in 2015. He played 26 games last season, finishing 6-13-4 with a 3.15 GAA and .880 save percentage. Across three NHL seasons, all in Philadelphia, he owns a 6-14-5 record with an .874 SV% and 3.29 GAA. However, he built a strong résumé in the KHL over the span of eight years going 61-55-8 with a .921 SV% and 2.22 GAA.

This deal does not move the needle much for Fedotov himself. He has not shown NHL-caliber numbers yet, and while his KHL track record is impressive, his time in Philly was rocky at best. With Columbus, he looks more like organizational depth and a solid AHL goalie than a serious threat for fantasy value. (sept15)

For Elvis Merzlikins, the Fedotov move is actually a small vote of confidence. He is still the starter, and the Blue Jackets clearly do not see Fedotov as a challenger for that role, just yet. Merzlikins carries the usual risk, streaky play and team inconsistency, but he should continue to get the lion’s share of starts. Jet Greaves is the more interesting name here. Columbus hopes that he turns into more than just a backup and even with this move they still see him as the one to push for NHL minutes behind Merzlikins. For the Flyers there is not much of a change either. Both Samuel Ersson and Dan Vladar will be tending the twine on the back end, likely with Ersson getting the first chance at being in the starters net. (sept15)

18. Another goalie move. The Blackhawks and Spencer Knight have agreed to a three-year extension worth $17.5 million that will begin next season. That works out to a cap hit of $5.833 million, which is slightly higher than the $4.5 million he is set to earn this season. Knight was acquired in the Seth Jones trade with Florida last season, and it appears that the Hawks hope that he will be their long-term starting goalie. At age 24, Knight still has a promising future, but he shouldn’t be drafted high in non-keeper formats given the Hawks’ situation. (sept14)

19. There are a number of players who could deliver strong value later in drafts. Either they are coming off injuries, and others might be overlooked because managers forget their past production or are wary of their history. A few of these names also offer solid multi-category contributions, making them worth considering as mid-to-late round targets. Here is a closer look at their roles, underlying metrics, and fantasy potential.

Kent Johnson

I am looking to see Johnson have another solid season. He finished last year with 23 goals and 33 assists for 57 points, but I can see him again pushing closer to another 65–70 points if he hits an 82-game pace. He is a great facilitator who is consistently creating opportunities and controlling play. His 19.5% shooting rate from last season suggests some regression is coming, and his even-strength efficiency may dip slightly, but that could be offset with more power-play opportunity. Last season, Johnson averaged 17:18 of even-strength ice time and just 2:33 on the power play, putting him on pace for nearly 70 points. With an expanded role this season, especially more power-play time, he could offset some regression in his shooting and stay in that same point range. All indications suggest he will at least maintain his current deployment, with the potential for a slight increase, which only boosts his upside. He is likely to be available late in drafts and if he has the potential to replicate his point pace into actual production this season, that should be enough to make him one player to earmark heading into your drafts. (sept15)

20. Aliaksei Protas

Aliaksei Protas broke out with 30 goals and 66 points in 76 games, but the underlying numbers hint at some regression. His shooting percentage jumped to 21.4%, almost double his career 11.6%. Sustaining that kind of efficiency is extremely rare unless you are in elite company, so expecting a repeat is a stretch. That said, his situation in Washington matters, skating with Alexander Ovechkin and Dylan Strome could keep him relevant even if the finishing cools off.

What stands out is his usage. He averaged over 16 minutes of TOI, his OZ starts jumped to nearly 60% from 40%. The shot volume (6.7 SOG/60) is more middle-six than top-line scorer, and his on-ice production outpaced his expected numbers, pointing to a hot run that may settle down. However, Protas was not just along for the ride. His involvement in goals rose to 76%, showing he drove offense, not just benefitting from it. I personally have a vested interest in Protas as I hold shares of him in a few leagues so I am certainly hoping he replicates his numbers from last year but I know that’s a stretch. He looks closer to a 15–20 goal, 40–50-point player with sneaky upside and a solid late round swing. (sept15)

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21. The Top 100 Roto Rankings have been updated for September – hopefully in time for your drafts. As has been the case for the past two seasons, we have joined forces with Hockey Bangers to provide the update of the September rankings.

If 100 players isn’t enough for you, check out the full rankings over at Bangers Fantasy Hockey website. Once you become a subscriber and download rankings, you will be able to view rankings for 350 players, projections in each category, and an overall bangers score. 

Yesterday I provided observations from the rankings in terms of risers, while today will focus on fallers. All of the players below are in their mid-to-late 30s, so a decline in production is very possible – perhaps even out of being universally rostered in fantasy leagues. Even if that’s not the case in 2025-26, maybe it’s better to avoid or cut these players a year too early than a year too late.

Anze Kopitar

With one season left on his current contract, Kopitar has stated that he is undecided about whether 2025-26 will be his final NHL season. Keeper leaguers should begin to think about a succession plan for the 38-year-old, who has been remarkably consistent over the past few years. Over the past four seasons, Kopitar’s floor and ceiling have been relatively close to each other, as he has ranged between 67 and 74 points each season. Moreover, he has missed just three games total over those four seasons, never playing fewer than 81 games over that span.

(Ed. note: This past week, Kopitar announced that the upcoming would be his last.)

One area of concern is Kopitar’s shot total, which in 2024-25 dipped below 100 for the first time in his career (shortened seasons not included). His shot-per-game total has fallen in each of the past four seasons from 2.6 SOG/GP in 2021-22 to 2.1 SOG/GP in 2022-23 to 1.6 SOG/GP in 2023-24 to just 1.2 SOG/GP in 2024-25. Kopitar is still projected to reach over 60 points in 2025-26, but the declining shot total is a major red flag and could even keep him under 60 points if he doesn’t register enough assists. (sept14)

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Have a good week, folks!

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