21 Fantasy Hockey Rambles

Mario Prata

2020-06-28

Every Sunday, we’ll share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Cam Robinson, and Dobber


 

1. If Phase 1 of the Draft Lottery was the only new entertainment we as hockey fans receive for a while, then it was well worth the half hour. The only outcome more intriguing than a placeholder team winning the first overall pick would be if all of the first three picks went to placeholder teams.

That placeholder team (or to be more precise, Team E) will have the opportunity to choose Alexis Lafreniere. However, if Cam Robinson were the GM of Team E, he would pick Quinton Byfield. View his Final 2020 NHL draft rankings if you haven’t already. I don’t know if I agree with Cam (and I certainly don’t put in the work that he does watching prospects), but I admire his bold take.

Entertaining? Yes. Fair? Not so sure. If the NHL wanted to deter teams from tanking for the first overall pick, then it has accomplished its purpose. The Detroit Red Wings, with the lowest point percentage of any team in 20 years, fell as far as they could to the fourth overall pick, losing the first overall pick to a team with just 2.5 percent odds of winning it. If you combine all eight placeholder teams, a placeholder team was more likely to land the first overall pick (24.5%) than the Red Wings (18.5%), so maybe we should have expected this. Although I have faith that Steve Yzerman can rebuild the once-proud franchise, that’s the worst possible outcome for a team that needed as many positives as it could get. (jun27)

 

2. In case you’re wondering what happens if the play-in cannot be completed…

Elliotte Friedman: If, for whatever reason, the play-in cannot be completed….the remaining bottom 8 teams will have a one-in-eight shot at the top selection.

Not long after I saw this, I then wondered about who exactly these bottom 8 teams would be. Good grief.

Elliotte Friedman: People have asked if this means next 8 or next non-playoff 4 per conference (via points percentage). As I understand, it is the latter. (jun27)

 

3. So, if you’re a fan of a team that is in the play-in tourney but not one of the bottom 8 teams of that group (like I am), a more favorable outcome would be to lose in the play-in series than for it to not happen at all (and thus not experience the agony of defeat). Some fans of those teams will even prefer that their team lose than win since their first overall pick odds (12.5%) from losing the play-in series will most likely be better than their Stanley Cup odds from winning the play-in series (6.25%, if every team in the round of 16 has the same odds). Then again, it’s just math, and this probably won’t be it for weird outcomes.

In case you missed it or don’t have it memorized by now, here’s the draft order:

1. Placeholder team
2. Los