21 Fantasy Hockey Rambles

Mario Prata

2020-10-11

Every Sunday, we’ll share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Cam Robinson, and Dobber


 

1. I mentioned that I would wait to move him up the Top 100 Roto Rankings. I’m willing to give him a small boost with his signing. There’s potential top-5 goalie value with Robin Lehner, particularly if Marc-Andre Fleury leaves. If Fleury sticks around, he would likely cut into Lehner’s workload and could even force a 50-50 if Lehner were to struggle. Lehner is used to that arrangement from his time with the Islanders, Blackhawks, and Golden Knights (during the regular season).

Interestingly enough, Lehner’s two highest games-played totals are both with the Sabres in 2016-17 (59 GP) and 2017-18 (53 GP), which was before his career took off. So should Fleury leave, Lehner would be given a larger workload than he has over the past two seasons. The playoffs gave us a small sample that he has a good chance of being able to handle 50+ games over a season, though.

 

2. Playoff hero Anton Khudobin decided that his heart was in Texas after all. The Stars re-signed their backup goalie (should we still call him that?) to a three-year contract with a $3.33 million AAV. The 34-year-old Khudobin tested the market briefly, but decided on a place that would likely have been better for his fantasy value anyway. Imagine if he took the money and went to a team like the Sabres or the Red Wings.

As for that backup/starter thing, I think this signing is a real hit to Ben Bishop‘s fantasy value. Bishop is already injury-prone as a Band-Aid Boy trainee who I think Dobber will upgrade to certified. I’d be willing to pencil Khudobin in for 40 games, which makes him a poor man’s Tuukka Rask if his ratios don’t drop off dramatically from the 2019-20 regular season. As much as he was noticed by a wider audience during the playoffs, his regular-season ratios (2.22 GAA, .930 SV%) were actually better than his playoff numbers (2.69 GAA, .917 SV%). Much of that may have to do with the level of competition in the playoffs, as you may recall that the Stars had series against sharp-shooting Colorado, Vegas, and Tampa Bay.

Another note: If you’re a keeper owner waiting on Jake Oettinger but let down by today’s news, you may receive your break if Seattle chooses whichever goalie is unprotected between Bishop and Khudobin. (oct10)

 

3. This news perhaps flew under the radar, but Bryan Little will reportedly not be able to play in the 2020-21 season. At this point, his career has to be in real jeopardy. This news is all the more reason for the Jets to re-acquire Paul Stastny. This is an important trade for the Jets because it could keep Patrik Laine happy if he doesn’t get to play alongside Mark Scheifele. Little would be placed on LTIR, which will provide the Jets with much-needed cap space. Fantasy Take: Paul Stastny Leaving on a Jets Plane. (oct10)

 

4. Here's a pair of under-the-radar signings that have a dark horse chance of mattering in fantasy leagues at some point this coming season. The Penguins signed Mark Jankowski and Evan Rodrigues to one-year contracts worth $700,000.

The Penguins don’t have a ton of cap space, so they had to concentrate on secondary scoring options. According to GM Jim Rutherford, Jankowski and Rodrigues are third-line forwards that can play center. And because it’s Pittsburgh and there are always injuries, these two forwards could make their way up to the top-6 at some point. Don’t be surprised if you see one or both of these names when you’re scanning your waiver wire. (oct10)

 


 

Free Agent Frenzy didn’t disappoint, if you enjoy the volume of signings that happen all at once. You’ll see the breakdowns of all the major signings (and a few of the minor ones) in our Fantasy Take articles.

 


 

5. It finally arrived. We always knew it would, at some point, but for the 31 prospects selected on Tuesday night, it was a longer journey than any before them. The first round of the NHL Entry Draft wrapped up with many a storyline.

Before the picks even began, we had a pretty impactful trade. The Canadiens dealt Max Domi and a third-round pick to the Blue Jackets in exchange for Josh Anderson. Montreal nabbed a dying breed of player – someone capable of producing points while also hammering the opposition with his physicality.

The issue has long been his health. Anderson was due for a new contract as an RFA and Montreal made that happen in a hurry. It will carry some risk thanks to his style of game and the wear and tear already spent on his body, but Anderson is the type of multicat player you win championships with when he's rolling. He's also the type of guy who is a menace in the real-life playoffs. A nice bet for Montreal.

As for CBJ, they get a guy who is one year removed from a 72-point campaign. He’s enigmatic. He can be frustrating. But he’s a proven producer. Domi was also looking for an RFA deal and got it fast. Columbus has a bunch of skill spread throughout their top nine. Domi likely projects onto the middle line – perhaps replacing Alexander Wennberg. I like this deal in the sense that either team could look great at the end of the day. Or neither. Read more on the trade by Michael Clifford here. (oct7)

 

6. Ottawa took Tim Stützle as we all expected (not my guy, but that's cool). Jake Sanderson at five was rumoured to be in play and came to fruition. It’s a fine pick. He is an excellent skater with high-end defensive habits. I think there’s more offense coming too. Top pair upside. Ottawa did well. (oct7)

Meanwhile, Detroit is putting together some serious talent up front. There’s already the top line of Tyler BertuzziDylan LarkinAnthony Mantha. They traded for Robby Fabbri, have Filip Zadina rounding into form, and Joe Veleno on the way. Now they add Lucas Raymond to the mix. I think Veleno’s progression is important – a legit 2C is crucial here – but the Wings are putting together a real nice crop of forwards. (oct8)

 

7. NJ grabs Alexander Holtz at seven. Meow. Holtz and Jack Hughes matched-up together will be nightmare fuel for the East. Mmm that has a gross amount of potential. We love this for Hughes' future stock. (oct7)

 

8. Good for Minnesota. They took reigning CHL-leading scorer and top Ottawa 67s prospect, Marco Rossi. All of a sudden we’re looking at Kevin Fiala, Kirill Kaprizov and Rossi as the team’s elite offensive pieces. Matthew Boldy and Adam Beckman are in the pipe too. Things could be fun in Minnesota one day soon. (oct7)

 

9. Cole Perfetti was sitting around for Winnipeg at #10. This one was another no-brainer. And speaking of brains, Perfetti has the biggest one in the draft. The Jets were hoping to land a future second-line center with this pick. Instead, they grabbed a top-liner. (oct7)

 

10. Yaroslav Askarov went to the Preds at 11. This speaks to their long term view of Juuse Saros. Askarov is going to be a star. He should be in the NHL in two years and pushing for starts right away. Top five talent nabbed outside of the top-10. Such is the way for goalies. (oct7)

 

11. When I look at Quinton Byfield and Alexis Lafrenière, I think it’s important to keep in mind the center/winger discrepancy. I say it because our own Cam Robinson had Byfield at the top of his board when most had Laffy up there. And when I read about Byfield, all I read is that he’s probably the best center to come along in the last few years. And when I read anything to the effect of ‘he’s the best center to come along since Auston Matthews,’ my mind immediately goes to the center/winger discrepancy. Let’s say Lafrenière ends up as good as Patrick Kane. If Byfield were to be the next Anze Kopitar, I would take the next Kopitar 100 times out of 100.

Is Lafrenière the next Kane? Is Byfield the next Kopitar? We’ll know in 10 years. But if those are roughly the comparables we’re using for these guys, I will take the next Kopitar, thank you.

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12. The same can be said to a lesser degree about Marco Rossi. Now, I think once we got past Byfield, we had more of a discussion i.e. I wouldn’t compare Alexander Holtz to Byfield, but I would compare Holtz to Rossi, or Lucas Raymond to Rossi, etc. Though teams at the top of the draft shouldn’t draft for need – or at any time, really – but once Byfield was gone, there was an argument that Rossi was the only other elite center available (depending on your personal view on Tim Stutzle and Cole Perfetti as centers or wingers). Teams at the top of the draft typically aren’t deep down the middle (else they’d be in the playoffs).

 

13. Things don’t sound good for Oscar Klefbom as he’s back in Sweden undergoing treatments for his ongoing shoulder problem. Oilers GM Ken Holland intimates that in quote linked above that this could be a very lengthy, very serious recovery.

 

14. Justin Williams retired. Readers can view his statement on Twitter here.

Having written about hockey for nearly a decade, one thing I’ve noticed: it’s not often a player lives up to their reputation. The guys who can ‘play up and down the lineup’ are usually just bad players being carried by good ones; ‘stay-at-home’ defensemen were just blue liners who couldn’t skate but loved cross-checking, etc. Williams, however, was a true 200 ft. player in every sense of those words. From all the media quotes, he was a great leader for every franchise he was a part of, particularly later in his career. Here’s one more cliché that he actually lived up to whereas most fail: he was a complete player.

He’s one of those guys who won’t get into the Hall of Fame, but anyone who’s ever been associated with him knows his greatness. Congratulations to Mr. Game 7 on a wonderful career and a happy retirement. (oct9)

 

15. One of the big storylines from the Dallas Stars’ playoff run was a lack of production from Tyler Seguin. He had just two goals in 26 games and did not score in either the West Final or the Cup Final. It could be chalked up to poor shooting percentage, but we found out he was playing through a torn labrum in his hip. There’s no timeline, but GM Jim Nill said rehab from surgery would take four months. If he goes that route and the league starts in early January, Seguin would miss at least the first month. Something to remember as we head to the offseason in case he does not have surgery. (oct9)

 

16. Just want to talk a bit more about the playoffs. One thing out of the gate: Miro Heiskanen is the future of NHL defensemen. Not himself, specifically, but the way he plays the game (though he is approaching the elite). Yes, he’s a defenseman, but he’s more a rover, in a similar vein to Erik Karlsson at his peak. He has the skills to not only start the rush, but jump in it, and get back in time to cover for himself. I think we’re going to see a lot more defensemen like him, and less like, say, Aaron Ekblad, over the next five years and beyond. I also think he was their MVP over Anton Khudobin. Khudobin had a .907 save percentage in the first two rounds and a .910 in the Cup Final. You can say the netminder was the MVP of the Western Conference Final, but Heiskanen was a significant contributor the whole way through. (oct5)

 

17. It'll hopefully be forgotten by the time the 2020-21 regular season rolls around, but Shea Theodore is a bona fide stud. He had 19 points in 20 playoff games, averaging a mammoth four shots per game. It wasn’t like he was playing 27-28 minutes a game, either, as he averaged 22:24 over those 20 contests. The one concern is he doesn’t hit and that’ll hurt his multi-cat value, but I expect a 50-point, 220-shot season at a minimum from Theodore next year. (Provided we play 82 games, of course.) (oct5)

 

18. Big news last week was the Rangers buy-out of long-time starter Henrik Lundqvist. The King had one year left on his deal and the Rangers have both Igor Shesterkin and Alexandar Georgiev. Maybe there could have been a Georgiev trade somewhere, but the Rangers thought it best to keep their two young netminders, so here we are.

Lundqvist played over 1000 games for the Rangers, including playoffs. He’s the franchise leader in starts, wins, and shutouts. He only had one Vezina Trophy win but finished in the top-3 four other times, and finished top-6 in voting every year from 2005 through 2015. He had a career .921 save percentage in 130 playoff games, including a .923 in the Cup Final in 2014, a series that saw him face at least 40 shots in every game but one. Playing behind a suspect defense was the hallmark of his career, and it’s a shame that his Rangers tenure comes to an end as the team is rounding into Cup contending form.

He’s a future Hall of Famer, full stop. Cup ring or not, he’s one of the two or three best goalies to enter the league in the last 15 years. It’s not his fault he was stuck behind Marc Staal and Dan Girardi for their glory years. (oct5)

 

19. The Penguins have made their goaltending decision, and it shouldn’t be that much of a surprise. Tristan Jarry‘s new contract comes with a reasonable cap hit ($3.5 million) that gives the Penguins more room to load up for the final years of the Sidney Crosby/Evgeni Malkin core.

Although Jarry was the superior Penguins goalie last season (2.43 GAA, .921 SV% compared to 2.87 GAA, .899 SV% for Murray), there is some risk for the Penguins. Jarry has played only 62 career games, plus he doesn’t have the postseason track record that the since-traded Matt Murray has with two Stanley Cups. Yet he appears to be a solid option anyway. Among the 52 goalies that played in at least 25 games last season, Jarry finished 11th with a 57.6 QS% (quality start percentage) and 12th with 11.07 GSAA (goals saved above average).

– Murray’s career numbers (regular season): 199 GP, 2.67 GAA, .914 SV%, 11 SO;

– Murray’s career numbers (playoffs): 51 GP, 2.18 GAA, .921 SV%, 6 SO. (oct4)

 

20. As for Matt Murray, he signed a four-year, $25 million contract with the Senators just days after being acquired from Pittsburgh. That’s a fairly significant AAV ($6.25 million), so I don’t think there’s any doubt that Murray will shoulder a major portion of the goaltending load for the Senators. Given Murray’s injury history (only one season with 50 games), that will pose a significant challenge.

In addition, there is the current state of the Senators. Murray will be an extremely risky fantasy option not only because of the rebuilding team in front of him, but also because of his own spotty play (negative GSAA in two of his last three seasons). If the Sens are a much-improved team in 2-3 seasons, then I could see Murray being a potential top-10 goalie if he’s able to shake off the Band-Aid Boy label. There are the two Stanley Cups, which no doubt got GM Pierre Dorion’s attention. Fantasy Impact: Ottawa Acquires Matt Murray (oct10)

 

21. Oliver Ekman-Larsson‘s agent informed teams that “time’s up” for a trade and that he would remain in Arizona for the coming season. This deadline appeared to be targeted simply at the Canucks, who needed to move on to pursue other players. The Canucks reportedly made one final offer just before the 9 a.m. PT deadline, but it is believed the Coyotes wanted a better prospect in the package than the Canucks were willing to part with.

I would never say never on the door being closed on a trade this offseason, as the financially-challenged Coyotes appear desperate to unload salary and rebuild. OEL may figure out another potential destination, or maybe there’s another potential deal with the Canucks or the Bruins (especially now that Torey Krug has moved on to the Blues). The Coyotes are not in a position of strength, given the limited number of teams he’s willing to be traded to and since his contract is so onerous (7 more years, $8.25 million AAV). (oct10)

 

Have a good week, folks be safe!!

Thanks for continuing to support the website and if you’re bored and need a fantasy hockey fix visit the gang in the forum here.

 

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