Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Michael Amato and Dobber

—

1. Quick plug: The Fantasy Guide is now available! Maybe you’ve already checked out the spreadsheet with projections, but now you get the PDF guide complete with the articles, team-by-team analysis, projections, and more! Download or purchase yours today if you haven’t already.

As for the French-language version, le Guide des Poolers, it will be released this week on the 12th.

2. Flames fans can breathe a massive sigh of relief. Jonathan Huberdeau has agreed to stay in Calgary long-term, signing an eight-year extension with an average annual value of $10.5 million. That’s $84 million total starting in 2023-24. Yes, that turned out to be more money than Johnny Gaudreau ($9.75 million AAV) and Matthew Tkachuk ($9.5 million AAV) are being paid by their new teams, but money didn’t seem to be the reason that Gaudreau and Tkachuk decided to leave Calgary. It is expensive, but Brad Treliving probably knew it would be when he made the trade.

That trade is looking a whole lot better for the Flames, who were running the risk of having both Huberdeau and Mackenzie Weegar as one-year rentals for Matthew Tkachuk, who basically signed his extension at the time of the trade. Now the Flames will turn their attention to signing Weegar long-term. Suddenly their offseason isn’t looking so disastrous after losing their two 100-point scorers in Tkachuk and Johnny Gaudreau.

In cap leagues, Huberdeau is set for a significant raise from the $5.9 million he will earn for one more season. He’s the kind of player who has the ability to score no matter where he goes – it’s just that his price tag has finally caught up to his production. During his career-best 115-point season last season, his most frequent linemate was center Sam Bennett, while the majority of his production with Aleksander Barkov came on the power play. While I’ll be bumping his value down slightly in the Roto Rankings after his trade to Calgary, I’m not panicking at all about hanging onto Huberdeau in my keeper league. (aug6)

3. Yakov Trenin was awarded a two-year contract in arbitration with a $1.7 million cap hit, taking him to unrestricted free agency in 2024. Trenin scored 17 goals and added seven assists in 80 games in 2021-22, while he formed a true bangers line with Tanner Jeannot and Colton Sissons. You know all about Jeannot if you frequent this site, but Trenin is no slouch in the hits department either, finishing fourth on the Predators with 191 hits in 2021-22.

The Preds are truly Smashville, leading the league with 2,470 team hits in 2021-22. I’m stealing a bit from the Fantasy Guide here, but you have numerous streaming options on Nashville when it comes to hits. Jeannot is obviously the big one, finishing second in the NHL with 318 hits. You also have Borowiecki, who had 196 hits in spite of playing just 57 games. Sissons, the center of the aforementioned hits line, had 188 hits. Even Eeli Tolvanen had 176 hits. You might be ready to give up on Tolvanen in your keeper league, but he might have some sneaky good value in bangers leagues. (aug6)

4. In case you haven’t noticed already, Yahoo fantasy hockey has opened for business. I’ve been waiting patiently to try a far-too-early mock draft. As I (pre)write this, the mock drafts don’t seem to be ready yet with no ETA.

For now, I’ll have to settle for a quick glance at the rankings for a few players that seem out of place. I’ll compare Yahoo’s ranking of the following players to where they are in the Top 100 Roto Rankings. Both rankings could easily change before the start of the season, but this could give you a bit of an idea of what to look out for if you happen to be drafting early. (aug6)

5. Brayden Point (Yahoo Ranking 105, Roto Ranking 58)

Even though he has scored at a point-per-game pace in the past, Point is not ranked among the elite skaters because he doesn’t offer much in the way of peripherals beyond scoring. We’ve seen Point at his finest during the playoffs, where he had scored at a point-per-game pace during both of the Lightning’s recent Stanley Cup wins. Staying healthy will be a concern again, particularly after he suffered a significantly torn quad. There’s high enough upside that I would be fine drafting him well before pick 100. (aug6)

6. Darnell Nurse (Yahoo Ranking 119, Roto Ranking 49)

If you’re in a pure points league, Nurse is probably deserving of this Yahoo ranking, as he was only on a 40-point pace in 2021-22. However, Nurse fills so many peripherals that he should be pushed up much higher. Only five players had a higher SOG+HIT+BKS total than Nurse in 2021-22, while only two players had a higher ranking in 2020-21. Nurse scored at an over-50-point pace that season, so he has it in him for more scoring. By the way, Jacob Trouba in a similar boat as Nurse. Trouba is similarly ranked in Yahoo while also providing solid cross-category coverage. (aug6)

7. The Sharks have signed Mario Ferraro to a four-year contract with an AAV of $3.25 million. Ferraro doesn’t provide a ton of scoring from the blueline, but his hits and blocks totals are high because he receives plenty of ice time (23:00 ATOI in 2021-22). Even though he played just 63 games in 2021-22, Ferraro led the Sharks and finished in the league’s top 30 with 291 hits plus blocks. In 2020-21, only six players finished with a higher hits-plus-blocks total than Ferraro (251 HIT+BKS). (aug5)

8. Last week I discussed quality starts (QS) and really bad starts (RBS), pulling out certain goalies who fared higher or lower than expected with these stats. You can read about it here. In Frozen Tools, you’ll see another interesting stat listed along with QS and RBS – a stat known as Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA), which I break down here.

Frozen Tools describes Goals Saved Above Average as Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA) as the following: “Calculates goal differential between goalie and league average (positive is better).”

The GSAA stat emphasizes how Igor Shesterkin was far and away the deserving winner of the Vezina Trophy. Shesterkin was tied for fourth with 37 quality starts, which may not stand out on its own. However, his four really bad starts in 53 games is quite remarkable while also demonstrating his reliability. Of the goalies with four or fewer really bad starts, only two (Linus Ullmark, Ville Husso) played 40 games. Barring injury (he missed eight games with a groin injury in December), Shesterkin could reach 60 games for the first time in his career in 2022-23, which would only help his win total.

In sum, follow the link as we look at various 2021-22 leaderboards highlighting the GSAA stat. (aug5)

9. Being a third wheel is something that can save a non-fantasy relevant player’s fantasy value. While we normally think of these types of third wheels as lower-end guys that just get thrown on a line in hopes he can mesh well enough with the other two, it’s not that simple.

Ryan Hartman was a good, not great, player in his own right but it wasn’t until he was moved to the top line in Minnesota with Mats Zuccarello and Kirill Kaprizov that he flourished; Michael Bunting had more goals in 2021-22 than he had career points up until that season, even if he showed flashes in his brief NHL stints prior; Trevor Moore put up more shots (202) and points (48) last season than he had in his 123 career games before. Sometimes it’s a guy that is taking advantage of his opportunity and sometimes it’s just someone who should have had that opportunity years ago.

Regardless, these guys can be very valuable in fantasy if they can stick on that productive line for most, or all, of the year. With that in mind, below are three situations where we could have third-wheel situation with significant fantasy implications. These aren’t the only situations to monitor, by the by, but ones that just piqued my interest. For a couple more, follow the link. (aug 4)

10. Montreal, alongside Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield:

Once Martin St. Louis was hired, Montreal’s top offensive duo spent significant time with each other. The natural assumption is that will continue in 2022-23, at least to start the season. The key here is that Caufield did spend time playing left wing, despite being a right shot, so there’s no guarantee that the third wheel will be a left-shot winger, but that’s going to be my assumption.

The natural inclination is to say Juraj Slafkovsky, Montreal’s recent #1 pick. He can surely play his way onto that line but assuming an 18-year-old rookie goes right to the top line, and stays there, is a long shot. He will get some time there, assuming he’s on the NHL roster, but my thinking is it’ll be in spurts and surely not to start the season.

My first instinct was Evgenii Dadonov. We saw how good he was playing on the top line in Florida and no, Nick Suzuki is not Aleksander Barkov, but he and Caufield are a burgeoning offensive force. Dadonov is good in both transition and playmaking, something that could mesh very well with the young core. It also has the added benefit of boosting his value for the trade deadline as with just one year on his deal, a rebound production season could fetch a decent draft pick in a trade.

Another option is Mike Hoffman and it could be a way to boost his value as well. That line had strong expected goals and actual goals rates last year, if also very weak defensively. It’s why I think we see Dadonov there, but we’ll see. If I were doing drafts before training camp, my money is on Dadonov to start the year on the top line. (aug 4)

11. Buffalo, alongside Tage Thompson and Jeff Skinner:

Once Alex Tuch got to the Sabres lineup in late December, by far the most popular line combination was Skinner-Thompson-Tuch. He was eventually moved off the top line late in the year in favour of Victor Olofsson. (For more on Olofsson and Skinner, read Brennan Des’ ‘Eastern Edge’ piece from Tuesday.) Adding Olofsson didn’t slow them down offensively at all and gave the second line a good two-way winger in Tuch. For that reason, I’m assuming Tuch starts the year on the second trio, but I’ll freely admit he could go right back to the top line, rendering all this moot.

If that does happen, there’s a top-line right wing spot open. It would seem like Olofsson has the inside track here. As Brennan mentioned in his article, Olofsson was great down the stretch with 13 goals and 25 points in 28 games. Though Olofsson hasn’t generally been a great play-driver, he and Thompson were very good together in 2021-22.

They got a healthy dose of offensive zone starts down the stretch, a signal of how good they were together. There is competition here but I think Olofsson gets a crack out of the gate.

One guy to watch is Jack Quinn. He tore up the AHL last year with 61 points in 45 games and has all the hallmarks of a future top-line scoring winger. He turns 21 in September so he’s not a true rookie in that sense. With a great training camp, they could put Quinn on the top line, Olofsson and Tuch on the second line, and that would give them a good scoring top-6. I am very high on Quinn and could see him being in the Calder Trophy race with the right deployment. (aug 4)

12. Vancouver, alongside Elias Pettersson and Brock Boeser:

This is the one where I’m really uncertain about line combinations. Pettersson spent over 400 minutes at 5-on-5 with at least one of Bo Horvat and J.T. Miller as the Swede has struggled on faceoffs for most of his career. That changed once Bruce Boudreau was hired as coach in early December, though. In the 752 5-on-5 minutes Pettersson had after Boudreau’s hiring, he spent just one-third of his time with either of those guys. Over the final two months, he spent nearly as much time with Brock Boeser (170 minutes) as he did without him (185 minutes). That is why I’m assuming they go with Boeser/Pettersson, though again, I’m not overly confident in that assertion.

If we assume Ilya Mikheyev goes with Horvat in shutdown line-type situation, and Conor Garland stays with Miller as they did over the final couple months of the season, the winger situation is starting to thin out. That is why I think they give Andrei Kuzmenko a shot here.

Kuzmenko is a 26-year-old winger that was signed out of the KHL. Our Prospects team has him a top-end offensive playmaker, something that could mesh very well with scorers like Boeser and Pettersson. If this team wants to be a playoff contender, he and Vasily Podkolzin will need to be impactful. Podkolzin just hasn’t looked good at the NHL level and that’s why I think Kuzmenko could swoop in and take a role on what will be a sheltered scoring line.

Podkolzin is the other guy to consider but as I said, he hasn’t shown much. He’s a good finisher but that line doesn’t need more finishers, they need guys who can transition the puck and make offensive zone plays. Of course, he just turned 21 and it was his rookie season. More development is very possible but if he turns into a Victor Olofsson-type, that’s not something that line needs. They need more playmaking ability, and Kuzmenko could do that.

The final thing I’ll say about Vancouver is I wouldn’t rely too heavily on third wheels here. We could see duos of Horvat/Mikheyev, Miller/Garland, and Pettersson/Boeser with a lot of rotation among the third forwards. I wouldn’t draft Kuzmenko in the 14^th round of a 12-team draft assuming he’ll be with Pettersson/Boeser for 60% of his ice time, for example. (aug 4)

13. Jesper Bratt got a one-year deal from New Jersey: One year, $5.45 million. Remember he was set for arbitration, and this saves them from going in that direction.

For cap leaguers, this is a gift. Had they extended Bratt for a long-term deal, that cap number would start with a 6 and maybe even a 7. He gets a raise, sure, but it could have been worse.

From a real-life standpoint, this is weird, I think. I wrote about Bratt back in June and why I think his 2021-22 breakout was real and was just an extension of him breaking through in the shortened COVID 2021 campaign. The team clearly wants him to prove himself for another year, but this could backfire. Bratt should be a fixture alongside Hischier (sometimes alongside Hughes) and he’ll also get top PP billing. The Devils had a bottom-10 power play but Hughes missed nearly half the year while Dougie Hamilton wasn’t healthy as the season wore on. With those guys at 100%, Hughes and Bratt a year further along in their development, and just added chemistry with all the PP pieces, that bottom-10 power play could be a lot better. Bratt could be just as good as he’s been at 5-on-5, and with additional PPPs, he could get past a point-per-game mark. If he posts 31 goals and 84 points in 79 games, and is a year closer to free agency, New Jersey is going to pay a lot more next offseason for a long-term deal than they would now.

Of course, he has to do that first, but I truly believe he has the talent, the linemates, and the role to pull it off. It makes me wonder, if he does have a great year, if he’s not moved next summer. He would fetch a really good return and give the team more pieces for the rebuild. On the flipside, they’d be trading a point-per-game 25-year-old winger, which doesn’t look great in a rebuild.

But if he does smash, his next deal could start with an 8. Teams need every dollar of cap space they can manage, and this feels like a very big gamble by the Devils. (aug 4)

14. In one of my (cap) leagues I own Alex Killorn, along with a plethora of other talented LWs, and am looking to move one. I have looked into the market for most of them, and there is absolutely no market for the two-time cup champion.

For a 32-year-old who is coming off of a 60-point season, I kind of get it. However, with Ondrej Palat off to New Jersey, Anthony Cirelli on the shelf for a number of months (and usually used in more defensive situations anyways) it looks as though Killorn should have an automatic spot on the top power play unit all season. That would be the top unit that boasts Steven Stamkos, Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov, and Victor Hedman. Though the majority of the pucks won’t be going through Killorn, he should easily top his career high of 14 power play points that he set just last year.

With another year in the top-six at even strength, and at least 15 points with the man-advantage on top of that, he should walk to 60-points again with his eyes closed. Add in two-shots per game, and at least one hit per game, it surprises me how much fantasy GMs really dislike anyone past the age of 30. If you’re at all near contention, these players are cheap to acquire and make a huge difference in competing. (aug3)

15. In our 2022-23 Fantasy Hockey Guide that was released late this past week, I worked on the one-way contracts and the remaining intriguing free agents that could offer some dark-horse potential should they be signed to a (one-way) contract.

Last year, the breakouts for Mason Marchment and Michael Bunting were featured there, and there’s a decent track record for a few breakouts every year with the one-year contracts. It’s a great place to lool that a lot of your league-mates are likely over-looking.

I won’t give you my favourite name on the list in this year’s guide here, but one of my favourites is Rudolfs Balcers. I do think he is in line for a solid season this year taking over for Marchment on Florida’s third line. He puts up over one hit per game, along with some decent underlying numbers and has done so in limited minute and with limited help from his linemates. He has paced for over 30 points in each of the three campaigns in which he has played over 20 games, and is only half a year away from his breakout threshold. Topping 50-points is very plausible for the 25-year-old.

16. One player projection that I made sure to check out in the Fantasy Hockey Guide was Clayton Keller, whose breakout year ended with a broken leg. Interestingly, my initial projections matched Dobber’s exactly for Keller, with us both having him penciled in for 77 points. The Coyotes only had four players last season that even scored half of that number, and one of them (Phil Kessel) doesn’t look like he will be back.

The team will again be relying on Keller, Nick Schmaltz, and Shayne Gostisbehere to carry the offense, along with a healthy Lawson Crouse and Jakob Chychrun. New additions Zack Kassian, Nick Bjugstad, and Troy Stecher are unlikely to move the needle offensively, but some of the youth might be able to step up if they are given enough leash offensively. Former first-round pick Barrett Hayton, along with prospects Jack McBain and Nathan Smith from the college route, offer the best bets for upside in the desert to rack up points as a center alongside Keller. Keep an eye on training camp lines there. Hayton has had his shot over the last few years and hasn’t capitalized though, so there’s a decent chance that the 23-year-old Nathan Smith gets first crack. (aug3)

17. Jack Eichel. Here we have a guy whose ADP and draft patterns I can’t wait to follow come September. I don’t think we’ll see a wider range of potential outcomes from an elite (or near-elite) player than we will for Eichel. If someone projects him from 59 games played and 49 points, it would probably make sense. Dobber's early draft list has him just under a point per game, with 73 in 76 projected games played. That also makes a lot of sense to me. He has just 55 games played over the last two seasons but had 224 points in 212 games in the three seasons before that. It has been a while since we’ve seen him at his best but if he can play anything close to a full season, 80 points is well within reach.

It is tough to evaluate any player on 30-40 games played but we’re going to do it anyway. The former Sabre only had 25 points in 34 games played but the problem was his assist total. His helpers per game (0.32) was less than half the rate from the three years before that (0.68). One big problem was a lack of secondary assists at 5-on-5 with just 1 in those 34 games (per Natural Stat Trick). For reference, he had 4 in 21 games the season before. A normal assist rate at all strengths (for him) would have seen him be a point-per-game guy. And he was doing very well across several transition/playmaking stats, from Corey Sznajder’s play tracking.

Controlled entries and exits, scoring chance assists, shot assists, basically every category we’d expect a playmaker to excel in, he excelled. If those assists come around, Eichel could end up being very valuable this season. I wonder where he ends up going in most drafts. (aug2)

18. Unsurprisingly, we are very high on Miro Heiskanen for 2022-23. Despite a career-best 36 points, Dobber’s projection has him for over 50 points this coming campaign. The big reason, obviously, is the departure of John Klingberg, who had been a fixture of Dallas’s top power play for years. Klingberg averaged 24 PPPs/82 games over the last three years, a total that would more than double Heiskanen’s 82-game average of 12 across the last three seasons. That would be enough to push him over 50 points if he plays a full season, hence the projection.

I wrote about Heiskanen a couple weeks ago and the issues I think he may have running a power play. Go read that for more on that issue. Beyond just the power play, the team having an actual second scoring line would go a long way here. Signing Mason Marchment should help but they need more from Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, and Denis Gurianov. Getting more depth scoring should give more production opportunities for Heiskanen and that will also be a big part of his upside. Dallas is a fascinating team heading into this season.

19. It was a big rebound season for Erik Karlsson last year. By Evolving Hockey’s expected goals impact, it was his best year since his first in San Jose, and it was his second-best in the last six years.  Across the league, he was tied for second in impact with Edmonton’s Evan Bouchard. The problem, as has been his issue for several years now, was his health (and defense, if you're into that sort of thing). He played just 50 games and hasn’t played more than 56 in a season since leaving Ottawa.

Going into his age-32 year, the games played are a big concern. It’s why we have him projected for just 65 games (but 44 points). If he can manage an 80-game season, it’s easy to see how he can get over the 50-point mark. And with Brent Burns in Carolina, Karlsson is locked on the top PP unit as long as he’s in the lineup.

The question, after health, comes to scoring depth. With the top line duo of Timo Meier and Tomas Hertl off the ice last year, the team scored 1.6 goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. That’s even worse than what Dallas did with the top guys off the ice at 1.7 goals per 60 minutes, and they were a very top-heavy team. If the addition the Sharks have made – Oskar Lindblom, Luke Kunin, Steven Lorentz, and hopefully William Eklund – don’t contribute significantly, it could be more of the same. That would hamper Karlsson’s upside as then he’s relying on one line and one PP unit for his production.

It will be interesting to see where his ADP lands. If he can stay healthy, 50 points is a very real possibility. Are people going to draft him as he’s a lock for 50 points, or that is where his upside is? There is a wide range here and that’s what makes this game so much fun. (aug2)

20. Seth Jarvis had a strong rookie year, but he was up and down the lineup. I thought he did well to post 40 points on different lines, even producing on the weaker ones, getting scratched a couple of times. In the final quarter of the season though, he actually stuck on the top line with Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen. He picked up 20 points in 22 games in that situation. Carolina line combinations will be pretty fluid this year I think, but if he gets even half of his shifts on that big line then he’s going to do better than you’d think. I adjusted the appropriate variable in my formula and it bumped him up by another six points. (aug2)

21. Noah Hanifin is an exceptional-sized player by our definition (6-3, 215 pounds) and last year was to be his breakout year (436 games heading in). In fact, he was a little late. And when there was no tangible increase in his numbers in the first half, I guess I was guilty of writing him off. But he ended up with 21 points in his last 21 games. That’s with no change in defense partners (remained Rasmus Andersson) and no tangible increase in ice time (maybe an extra minute or so). He just…went off. I had averaged his numbers over the past couple of seasons and did not adjust for an improved situation. After looking more closely at everything, I made some adjustments and he got a six-point bump over what I had given him earlier. (aug2)

~ Have a good week, folks – stay safe!!

Thanks for continuing to support the website and if you’re bored and need a fantasy hockey fix – visit the gang in the forum here.