Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, Brennan Des, and Dobber

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The 2025-26 Fantasy Guide was officially released on Saturday and is now available for download! Projections by team and by point totals, sleepers, drafted players, rookies, goalies, advanced stats, and much more!

Get it at the Dobber Sports Shop on its own or as part of a package.

Looking for a French version of the Guide? Go here…

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1. Last week I profiled four players who might be in line for a decline in scoring due to higher-than-normal shooting percentages last season. Today I’ll flip it the other way with players who fell victim to unlucky shooting percentages last season and whether more goals could be on the way. This list is restricted to forwards with a minimum of 40 games played, minimum five goals, and shooting percentage under 10%, all in 2024-25.

Carter Verhaeghe

You could argue that the Panthers’ quest for back-to-back Stanley Cups has had a negative impact on Verhaeghe’s fantasy value. To explain, his season goal total has fallen from 42 goals in 2022-23 to 34 goals in 2023-24 to just 20 goals in 2024-25. Part of that is luck-based from an analytics perspective, as his 8.3 SH% and 2.2 PTS/60 last season were both lower than career averages. Verhaeghe’s shots per game has gradually decreased over the past two seasons to 3.0 SOG/GP, but not at an alarming rate.

However, reduced power-play time is a reason for the decreased goal total and could continue to be. During the playoffs, Verhaeghe averaged just under half of the Panthers’ available power-play minutes (47.6%), with the Panthers likely running back nearly the same cast of characters this coming season. Florida’s PP2 unit isn’t a terrible one, with Verhaeghe scoring four of his seven playoff goals with the man advantage. Verhaeghe should probably still be drafted in most fantasy leagues, but it may not be easy for him to score 30+ goals and 70+ points again. (july26)

2. William Karlsson

Karlsson’s overall production in 2024-25 plummeted, with the drop from 30 goals in 2023-24 to just nine goals in 2024-25 most noticeable. Part of the reason was that Karlsson played only 53 games due to a lower-body injury that might have been a hamstring issue. However, Karlsson’s shooting percentage also shot down from 17.1% in 2023-24 to just 7.6% in 2024-25. Karlsson’s season-by-season shooting percentage has been all over the map throughout his career, including a 23.4 SH% rate during his out-of-nowhere 43-goal campaign with the original Golden Misfits.

Expect Karlsson to bounce back to some degree, assuming he can remain healthy. With a games-played deduction, Karlsson can probably reach somewhere between 40-50 points after just 29 points in 2024-25. It’s worth noting that he recorded 11 points over his last 15 games in the final quarter despite scoring at just a 45-point pace over the entire season. (july26)

[Follow the link for more…]

3. On Thursday evening, the Carolina Hurricanes announced they had signed Jackson Blake to an eight-year contract extension with a cap hit of $5.625 million. Blake has another year left on his entry-level contract, so he is now locked in for nine years total. That’s serious security, as eight-year contracts will be going away as part of the next CBA to start in 2026-27. With the cap set to rise over the next few seasons, this deal could age well if Blake can break out successfully.

The Canes certainly aren’t shy about signing young players with potential to long-term deals. One example is Jesperi Kotkaniemi, who signed an eight-year deal back in 2022 when he had not yet turned 22. Blake will be turning 22 in early August, having just completed his rookie season. His 34 points was 10^th among rookies in 2024-25. (july26)

4. The Islanders have avoided arbitration with Maxim Tsyplakov, signing him to a two-year extension with a cap hit of $2.25 million. After being signed as a free agent from the KHL, the 26-year-old Tsyplakov finished his first NHL season with 10 goals and 35 points in 77 games. Tsyplakov projects to be a middle-six forward for the Islanders who should receive second-unit power-play minutes. That doesn’t carry huge upside, but he could be a waiver-wire add at some point during the season if he gets hot or the Islanders get into injury trouble. (july26)

5. The Rangers have signed veteran Conor Sheary to a PTO. Sheary spent most of 2024-25 with the Lightning’s AHL affiliate in Syracuse, scoring 61 points in 59 games. He played just five games for the Bolts in 2024-25, not registering a point. His contract with the Lightning was also terminated in June. Sheary is at least familiar with new Rangers coach Mike Sullivan from their time together in Pittsburgh, which included two Stanley Cups. (july26)

6. I wanted to quickly highlight an article Thursday from our own Stas Pupkov. He went back to 2007 and visualized things like expected goals, goal-scoring, and point production through the years. You can look by team, by player, whatever you want. It is just a neat little trip down memory lane that also helps to highlight how quickly (or not) things can change for teams and players. (july25)

7. As we do every offseason here at Dobber, Bubble Keeper Week is coming up in a couple weeks. It is a chance for the writers and readers to assemble some interesting either/or questions about which players at the end of a fantasy roster should or should not be kept. It isn’t designed for questions like “Do I keep Sam Reinhart or Pavel Dorofeyev” but something like “Do I keep Cole Perfetti or Matt Coronato“.

Bubble Keeper Week starts August 10^th, so we’ll start assembling questions now. Either leave a comment at the bottom of this Ramblings or reach out to me on Twitter here or BlueSky here. (july25)

8. Drew Helleson signed a two-year extension with Anaheim a few days ago and it got me thinking about the Ducks’ blue line. They have Radko Gudas and Jacob Trouba for another year while Jackson LaCombe had his breakout and now looks like their top defenceman. That means there are four defencemen – Helleson, Pavel Mintyukov, Olen Zellweger, and Tristan Luneau – for three roster spots.

It made me wonder if we don’t see the Ducks run a lot of 11F/7D lineups this season. PuckPedia has them with 11 forwards signed which doesn’t include Mason McTavish and Sam Colangelo. Assuming they’re both signed, they have 13 forwards and one of them is Ross Johnston, who probably doesn’t see a lot of games. That gives them 12 forwards in regular use, but it seems like Colangelo or Jansen Harkins finds themselves in the press box in favour of the team keeping all their young defencemen in the lineup. The team probably sees it as more imperative to get games in for Mintyukov or Luneau than they do Harkins or Colangelo. It is just a guess, but it makes me a little less nervous about drafting Zellweger this season. (july25)

9. Kaapo Kakko and the Seattle Kraken have avoided their arbitration hearing by agreeing on a three-year extension for $4.525M per season. Kakko was traded to Seattle in December and proceeded to put up 10 goals and 30 points in 49 games with his new team. He will turn 24 years old in February.

While Kakko hasn’t turned into a great point producer, he has been solid for the ice time he’s been given. Over the last three years at 5-on-5, two of the comparable wingers to Kakko in terms of goals and primary assists per 60 minutes, limited to wingers who skated top-6 minutes (roughly 12:40 per game), are Troy Terry and Conor Garland. 

Those aren’t elite producers or anything, but Garland has two 20-goal campaigns and two 50-point efforts while Terry has at least 20 goals and 30 assists in each of the last four years. The difference with Garland is that his most recent 50-point season came in a year where he skated 18:39 per game while Terry has surpassed the 18-minute mark in each of those four 20-plus-goal, 30-plus-assist seasons. Kakko has yet to reach the 18-minute mark in any of his six seasons.

Is there some hope Kakko gets that bigger role in Seattle? (july24)

[Follow the link for the full analysis on Kakko]

10. My two articles for the DobberHockey Fantasy Guide includes my usual One-Way Contracts piece, and a new schedule piece (more on that in a minute). The One-Way Contracts piece highlights some fringe players who have earned one-way deals, and might be in a better position to succeed in 2025-26 as a result.

This year there are quite a few goalies highlighted, and if the Devils hadn’t re-upped Jake Allen, then Nico Daws would have been profiled too. His one-way deal might make him a trade candidate, especially since he will require waivers to be sent down. There just aren’t many holes in NHL lineups though, so there are always a few like Daws who sneak through waivers right before the season just due to the numbers game.

One interesting situation that bears monitoring is in Calgary, where the two goalies on the depth chart behind Calder finalist Dustin Wolf have less than half of the career games that Wolf does. Between Devin Cooley and Ivan Prosvetov, there could be 20-30 games available for a bubble playoff team. I give you my heavy favourite to win the Flames’ backup position in the Guide. (july23)

11. My other article for the Fantasy Guide is a new one, which highlights everything you need to know about the NHL schedule in order to plan H2H league strategies. It builds on Andrew Santillo’s article with the overall season schedule details, and the details I’ve researched and included have a bunch of tips that I reference a lot myself during the year. I won’t give away too much in terms of some of the notes and tips for in-season, but I will say that the Sharks are going to be a team that you want to get a piece of for the H2H playoffs, while the Rangers and Penguins have two of the most intriguing schedules as a fantasy manager.

As a result of the longer Olympic break this year, the schedule is much more compressed than the past few seasons, which shows itself in a few ways, and may mean that a little more attention to the schedule is needed this year for fantasy managers. (july23)

12. Back when Tom Collins was running the top-10 column, one of my favourites was the annual "Top-10 picks from a Fantasy Draft" column, specific to the WHL fantasy league. Luckily for us, the WHL that Tom always discussed in that article is a league that I'm a part of as well. As a result, I took the time to interview each of our GMs who made the top-10 selections, to get their takes on their picks, and how they felt about each.

In this 24-team dynasty league, each of the teams are owned by a Dobber forum member, and our five-round prospect draft ran from July 15^th to the 20^th.

Let's get to it:

(1). James Hagens (C) – Maine Moose (GinFizz)
(2). Michael Misa (C) – Maine Moose (GinFizz)

The first two picks were a little unexpected, but there is some sense to it. Hagens and Misa were the top two forwards on my draft list as well, though in reverse order.

For some context, coming into the offseason, Maine had picks at 2, 6, 8, 16, 19, 23, and 24 in the first round of this year’s prospect draft. Also, something to keep in mind is that ‘The #Moose’ (as he likes to call his team) are in their first true year of a rebuild. Here’s what he had to say about his first picks:

“I was lucky to acquire Zayne Parekh, Zeev Buium, Molendyk, Gabe Perreault, Rutger McGroarty, Carter Yakemchuk and Berkley Catton during last year’s sell off. With being the worst team in the league, I was snake bitten when it came time for the draft lottery, as I pulled the #2 slot instead of the #1 slot which went to the Thornhill Rebels.

Being a Bruins fan, my thought process was always to take Hagens at #2 (draft with your heart not with your brain), BUT then I was able to trade my #6 and Denton Mateychuk for the #1 pick. I proceeded to take Hagens at #1 and Misa at #2 which hopefully turn out to be the right selections. Passing on Schaefer was difficult, but I already had three star defence prospects.” (july23)

13. (3). Matthew Schaefer (D) – Fresno Firebirds (Pit Bulls)

Getting the first overall pick in the draft usually means you have the first overall pick, but often when that player is a defenceman, fantasy players will let the Dman fall a few picks, and lean towards the forwards. Sometimes that works, like with Owen Power, and sometimes it doesn’t work as well, like with Rasmus Dahlin. Fresno is hoping this case is more of the latter. Here’s what he had to say:

“After dropping from 2nd to 3rd due to the NHL lottery (bad) luck, I knew I was going to miss out on either Misa or Schaefer and had resigned myself to be picking between Hagens and Martone. I finally landed on Hagens as I felt he was in a better position with BOS than Martone was in PHI. When the Moose GM picked Hagens and Misa, it was a no brainer to pick Schaefer. Especially after I traded Parekh for McTavish before our trade deadline.” (july23)

14, (4). Anton Frondell (C) – Hamilton Steelheads (Dennis)

The beginning of a clear tier at the top of the draft is always a tough spot to be and can lead to some overthinking. Hamilton managed to avoid that here, and he shared what helped make that decision easier:

“Frondell is a goal scorer and more pro-ready than most in his class, two things I like in my top fantasy picks. Combine that with his strong play all over the ice and potential future in Chicago and I was swayed to pick Anton over several tempting options here.” (july23)

[Follow the link for more…]

15. Gabriel Vilardi got a six-year extension from Winnipeg over the weekend. Ian wrote a bit about it in Saturday’s Ramblings.

I really do wonder what the Winnipeg top-6 is going to look like this season. Nikolaj Ehlers signing in Carolina leaves a huge hole on the second line and unless Cole Perfetti takes a massive step forward, there is no one on the roster who can replace Ehlers’ offensive play. Well, not unless they break up the top line of Vilardi, Kyle Connor, and Mark Scheifele.

The way that Winnipeg runs their lines, they don’t really have a ‘second’ and a ‘third’ line. They have a first line, two middle-6 lines, and a fourth line – last year, the gap between 4^th and 9^th in 5v5 TOI per game among Winnipeg forwards was 1:05. The two middle-6 lines can be delineated with one as a scoring line (the one with Perfetti) and the other as a checking line (the one with Adam Lowry). They are clearly hoping that Gustav Nyquist or Jonathan Toews can help replace Ehlers, but that’s a lot to ask. So, it makes me wonder if we don’t see the Lowry line get more ice time while that ‘scoring’ second line gets their TOI throttled down a bit.

That is unless they put Vilardi next to, say, Perfetti and Toews. Try to make it a genuine second scoring line, move someone like Nyquist or Nino Niederreiter to the top line, and cobble together the checking line around Lowry.

To me, it just seems hard to not move at least one of Connor or Vilardi down to the Perfetti line. With Ehlers gone, there just is not enough offensive talent to make a second scoring line without moving Connor or Vilardi down. They probably try to leave the top line together, but I have doubts it lasts very long. (july22)

16. My section in this year’s Guide covered goalies to watch, so I thought I’d stay on theme and talk about a few goalies in today’s Ramblings, particularly those recently ranked by NHL.com. Let me start by saying that coming up with rankings, especially for goalies, is a very difficult exercise and it’s impossible to get every pick right. In pointing out potential oversights in these rankings, I don’t mean to criticize the hard-working folks who create these lists. However, since a list like this is publicly available through the NHL’s official website, it can set the stage for your average fantasy manager’s perception of certain players. That makes it important for you to identify value discrepancies in these rankings, so you can identify who might fall in fantasy drafts and decide which of those ‘fallers’ are worth targeting in fantasy formats.

Overrated: Darcy Kuemper – NHL.com ranking: 8

LA had the best even-strength defense last year, posting the league’s lowest expected goals against (via NaturalStatTrick). With a goalie’s numbers largely influenced by the team in front of them, it makes sense that Kuemper would be a valuable fantasy asset. Not only was the team in front of him good last year, but Kuemper’s individual performance was excellent, as evidenced by his spectacular 29.45 goals saved above expected, which ranked fourth among all netminders (via EvolvingHockey). Although Kuemper has performed well throughout his career, last season was a level above anything we’ve seen from him in terms of GSAx. I’d be wary of a goaltender having a career year at the age of 35, as I see much more room for him to regress than to improve or stay the same.

The primary reason for my pessimism is LA’s defensive downgrades this summer, swapping Vladislav Gavrikov – an excellent shutdown blueliner – and Jordan Spence, for the underwhelming Cody Ceci and Brian Dumoulin. The team’s suffocating style of play may survive these changes, but I imagine there will be some drop off in their defensive results. Is it possible that Darcy Kuemper has another good year?  Absolutely. But if you’re drafting him ahead of guys like Igor Shesterkin (rank 9), Linus Ullmark (rank 11), Ilya Sorokin (rank 13), and Jacob Markstrom (rank 15), you’re setting yourself up for disappointment. In my eyes, Kuemper’s current acquisition cost is so high, there’s virtually no room for him to outperform expectations and provide surplus value, so it makes sense to avoid him in fantasy formats. (july21)

17. Underrated: Jeremy Swayman – NHL.com ranking: 22

I can understand placing Swayman outside the top-20 fantasy netminders because he really struggled last season in his first go as Boston’s undisputed starter. Although he thrived in his previous three years with the Bruins, he had done so in a timeshare with Linus Ullmark. Ullmark’s departure caused Swayman to jump from 44 to 58 games, and his numbers suffered with the increased workload. Now, it’s hard to say if fatigue was the prime factor behind Swayman’s struggles because the Bruins were also decimated by absences on the blueline. Top defenseman Charlie McAvoy missed most of the second half with injury, Hampus Lindholm was sidelined for the final three quarters of last season, and shutdown defenseman Brandon Carlo was dealt to Toronto at the deadline. That effect of those absences was particularly evident on the penalty kill as the Bruins went from a top-10 PK (82.5%) to a bottom-10 PK (76.3%). Swayman’s PK SV% was a lowly .814% last season – a steep drop from the .886, .895, and .857 it had been in prior years. With McAvoy and Lindholm expected back in the fold this season, Swayman will have better insulation and should be able to post better numbers. (july21)

18. Underrated: Karel Vejmelka – NHL.com ranking: 23

He’s not a household name just yet but Vejmelka deserves much more respect in fantasy formats after an excellent 2024-25 campaign. His first three years in Arizona yielded underwhelming results as his GAA was consistently above 3.25, but he elevated his game in year four, posting 20.75 goals saved above expected through 58 games. Only 10 goalies in the league finished the year with a better GSAx. His stats might have been even better had he not been forced to start 24 of Utah’s 25 games down the stretch after Connor Ingram entered the NHL’s Player Assistance Program. Vejmelka fared well during the first half of that marathon run but faltered in the back half. Fortunately, Utah signed Vitek Vanecek this summer, which should prevent Vejmelka from running out of gas down the stretch again. Although Vanecek and Ingram are serviceable NHL goalies, they each have one year remaining on their contracts at miniscule cap hits. Vejmelka, on the other hand, recently signed a lengthy extension and is on the books for five seasons at a cap hit of $4.75 million. He’s getting paid like the team’s bona fide starter, he’ll get played like the bona fide starter. (july21)

19. Underrated: Juuse Saros – NHL.com ranking: 24

There’s some logic to Saros’ placement near the bottom of NHL.com’s rankings. For starters, he’s coming off his worst season as Nashville’s starter having posted an .896 save percentage and -4.68 GSAx through 58 appearances last year. That negative GSAx suggests individual struggles that went beyond the team’s discombobulated play after adding big-name free agents Jonathan Marchessault and Steven Stamkos. However, I can’t help but feel like some of Saros’ struggles can be attributed to the blueline in front of him. Brady Skjei, signed to a seven-year deal in the summer of 2024, had strong defensive results in Carolina but put forth substandard play as he adjusted to a new system in Nashville. Then there’s the departure of talented defensive defenseman Alexandre Carrier, who was shipped to the Canadiens on December 18^th. Prior to that trade, Saros held a .911 SV% and 9.6 GSAx over 26 games. After that trade, Saros stumbled with an .882 SV% and -14.28 GSAx. It’s not all on Carrier’s departure as Roman Josi missed a significant portion of that second stretch due to injury. We learned last month that Josi’s absence was due to postural tachycardia syndrome, which can be treated but not cured. Although the Preds currently expect Josi to be available for the 2025-26 campaign, there’s understandably some uncertainty given his diagnosis, which has a trickle-down effect on Saros’ fantasy value because Nashville’s blueline is obviously much weaker without their captain. I feel like Saros’ current fantasy stock – which has NHL.com placing him 24^th among all netminders – reflects an overly pessimistic outlook. It’s an outlook that lets recency bias place weight onto one bad season instead of finding reassurance in eight years of consistent excellence beforehand. It’s an outlook that assumes Roman Josi misses time, even though there’s no official word from the team suggesting that. Sure, Nashville’s blueline has taken a hit recently, but Saros is still a very talented goalie with a strong track record, and I believe he can bounce back. The downgraded team in front of him may prevent him from posting the save percentages and wins he did in the past, but he has the individual ability to provide extra fantasy value this year – especially if he's being taken outside the top-20 goalies. (july21)

20. Last week, these Rambling started an offseason series about projecting players for the following season. Here is what we’ve looked at to this point:

• Which stats to consider and how important they are.
• Differences between forwards and defencemen.
• Changes in ice time at the league level.
• Digging into ice time down at the player level.
• Why ice time for players who change teams needs extra consideration.

Today, we’re going to break down the three forward positions to give us an idea of what stats are provided in each role. This is just differentiating what level of fantasy stats were available at left wing, right wing, and centre and how much that should inform our draft approach. We will be using data from Evolving Hockey and player positions are based on those provided from Fantrax.

As anyone who has played fantasy hockey for a while knows, the centre position is different from the wings. We generally expect more assists, fewer shots, and more points than we would on the wings. That is mostly true, or at least it was in the 2024-25 season. (july25)

[Follow the link for more…]

21. In case you missed it, the five Canadian junior players on trial for sexual assault were found not guilty on Thursday. As expected, opinions on whether this was the correct verdict were divided on social media. Although the evidence provided may not have reached the level of proof beyond a reasonable doubt that is required in the Canadian justice system, this case clearly displayed the negative effects of hockey culture, where toxic masculinity is far too common.  

What comes next for these five players is not clearly known. Currently, these players remain ineligible to play in the NHL, but they could be cleared to return to professional hockey soon. A suspension could also be formally announced, or it could come in the form of the players remaining ineligible to return for an indefinite period extending into the season. Keep in mind that players like Slava Voynov, Jake Virtanen, and Mitchell Miller have had current or potential NHL careers grounded permanently because of off-ice incidents.

Out of the five, Carter Hart jumps to mind the most as a player who could resume an NHL career. Hart last appeared in a game on January 20, 2024, so it’s been over a year for him. That’s not a Gabriel Landeskog-length layoff, but Hart will probably be rusty. In fact, we probably shouldn’t expect him to ever reach the upside he showed as a top goaltending prospect, assuming he returns. Teams will face an ethical dilemma of whether he should be given the privilege of receiving another NHL contract after the facts of this case were made public. Not guilty does not carry the same meaning as innocent, so a team signing Hart could receive negative PR backlash.

Edmonton currently seems like the most likely destination for Hart, both from a team needs standpoint and history of granting players second chances after transgressions (Evander Kane, Corey Perry). On top of that, Hart is also from Edmonton. If in fact the Oilers decide that Hart is worth adding to potentially improve their goaltending, he could fall into the category of high risk but high reward. (july26)

Have a good week, folks!
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