Every Sunday, we share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, and Dobber

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1. The NHL Draft started off by answering the question that had become very prevalent over the last few weeks: Shane Wright or Juraj Slafkovsky? It seemed Wright was destined for the number-1 pick up until recently, but that’s not how Montreal saw it as they took the Slovakian winger at first overall. I have written about this decision a couple times already this week, and our prior Ramblings can be viewed here.

I am not a prospect evaluator so I’ll defer to the Habs. All I’ll say is this is a franchise-defining moment that they can not get wrong. As a Habs fan, nothing would make me happier than seeing Slafkovsky on an All-Star team in three years. We’ll cross our fingers.

The havoc continued as New Jersey, with the second overall pick, took defenseman Simon Nemec. The Devils definitely have a couple great centers but leaving Wright on the board for #3 felt weird. All the same, a big day for Slovakian hockey as they have two players going at the very top of the draft.

Wright’s slide continued as Logan Cooley, who seemed a consensus #3, went third overall to Arizona. This is not a knock on Cooley, as he’s very highly regarded, but that Wright continued to slide was absolutely the story of the early part of the Draft.

The wait wouldn’t continue further as Seattle would take Wright with the #4 pick. It’s hard to imagine they thought they’d get him at this point and if he does turn out to be the best player in the draft, this could be a big steal for them. Adding him with Matty Beniers is a great 1-2 punch for the next decade-plus in Seattle. Quite the coup for them if both of those guys reach their ceilings.

Just before the selection of Wright, we had Montreal making a pair of trades that involved picks, sending Alexander Romanov to the New York Islanders, and getting Kirby Dach from Chicago. I had that breakdown here.

Columbus seemed to have themselves a pretty good draft. The Jackets had picks 6 and 12, going with a pair of defencemen in David Jiricek and Denton Mateychuk. Our own Dobber Prospects team had them ranked 6^th and 8^th, respectively, and it seems the Jackets were similarly high on this duo. With Zach Werenski around for a while at the age of 25, Jake Bean at 24, Adam Boqvist going into his age-22 season, and now these two, the blue line is shored up for years to come.   

The biggest slide, according to our Prospects team, was Frank Nazar. He ended up being drafted by Chicago 13^th overall, part of that trade package that they received along with Dach. He could be a great offensive player for them down the road, and could work out very well for them long-term.

For more coverage, our Dobber Prospects team and our podcasts are sure to be busy over the next week.

2. Day 2 of the NHL Draft took place on Friday, with the picks happening much more quickly than they did on Thursday for the first round. For a full list of picks from 1 to 225, head over to the NHL site. If you want to learn more about your favorite team’s picks, or any other prospects, head over to Dobber Prospects and select the Teams – East or Teams – West menu. And of course, if you want the fantasy lowdown on the players that were just drafted, get your Prospects Report at the Dobber Sports Shop. (july9)

3. All it takes is one move to create a rapid domino effect when it comes to the NHL market. For the goalies, that first domino was Alexandar Georgiev being traded to the Avalanche on Thursday. Later Thursday, it was Petr Mrazek to Chicago. Then on Friday morning, Ville Husso‘s rights were traded to Detroit and he promptly signed there. Then Vitek Vanecek to New Jersey. Did I miss anyone?

Goalies haven’t been the only players on the move recently. Of course, the Blackhawks haven’t wasted any time in starting their rebuild by parting with young scorers Alex DeBrincat and Kirby Dach. Defensemen have also gotten in on the fun, with Alexander Romanov off to the Islanders and Tony DeAngelo off to Philly.

You can find analysis of everything on the Fantasy Take – Latest NHL Moves page. Cliffy has been a superstar these past couple days with all of this work. (july9)

4. The Chicago Blackhawks have had quite the week, trading away two under-25 scorers in DeBrincat and Dach. Further to that, there are rumblings that Dylan Strome will not be qualified, which will cut into their depth even more. This tear-down and rebuild might be long overdue, and it was quite frankly the direction they should have taken last offseason when they opted to trade for and sign Seth Jones instead. So the Blackhawks next season will consist of the expensive Jones along with holdovers Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews and… anyone else?

5. I’ll focus on Kane here, since he’s still a strong fantasy commodity. The departure of DeBrincat in particular could obviously hurt his production. Check out who Kane’s most frequent linemates were in 2021-22 (from Frozen Tools):

1. 432:01 / 30.7: Patrick Kane – Dylan Strome – Alex DeBrincat
2. 161:17 / 11.5: Patrick Kane – Alex DeBrincat – Kirby Dach
3. 92:56 / 6.6: Patrick Kane – Dylan Strome – Brandon Hagel
4. 74:08 / 5.3: Patrick Kane – Jonathan Toews – Brandon Hagel
5. 71:25 / 5.1: Patrick Kane – Dylan Strome – Dominik Kubalik

Of those players listed, it’s possible that Kane, Toews, and possibly Dominik Kubalik are the only players on the Hawks next season. I’m assuming that Kane isn’t traded because of the size of his contract ($10.5 million) or bought out (still too skilled a player). But who knows, maybe he will decide to push a trade as soon as possible instead of being a part of a lame-duck season in Chicago, which could be his last one there anyway because it’s the final year of that contract.

Kane has been a point-per-game-plus player for much of his career, including nine of his last ten seasons. In addition, he’s consistently been on pace for between 95-100 points over the past three seasons. Of course, age regression will hit someday (Kane is now 33). Yet even without many skilled linemates in what appears to be a tank attempt, anything less than a point per game would seem like a sudden dropoff. Don’t classify Kane as an elite scorer any more, and based on recent events he’ll probably be a faller in the July Roto Rankings (June rankings here). That being said, he’s still a very valuable fantasy asset even as a standalone performer. (july9)

6. Duncan Keith announced his retirement. With two Norris Trophies, two Olympic gold medals, three Stanley Cups, and a Conn Smythe Trophy win, Keith seems like a certain Hall of Famer. He was also named one of the NHL’s 100 greatest players in 2017. Keith’s top offensive season was 2009-10, when he scored 69 points (14 G, 55 A).  

In his one season in Edmonton, Keith finished with 21 points (1 G, 20 A) while averaging just under 20 minutes per game. He was regularly paired with either Cody Ceci or Evan Bouchard, and it sounds like the Oilers wanted Keith back to continue to be paired with Bouchard. Between the Keith retirement and trading Zack Kassian to Arizona, the Oilers find themselves with $8.7 million in cap space. It might be wise for them to find another defenseman, but I’d imagine that they are hot and heavy on the goaltending market, which includes the likes of Darcy Kuemper and Jack Campbell. Plus I’m sure they’d like to find a way to bring back Evander Kane if they can.

Keith had one year left on his contract at $5.54 million. However, his retirement will create a cap recapture penalty for the Blackhawks in both 2022-23 ($5.5 million) and 2023-24 ($1.9 million). That might not matter as much as it would for most teams, since the Hawks seem to be bottoming out anyway. (july9)

7. The LA Kings have signed Adrian Kempe to a four-year contract worth $5.5 million per season. Kempe earned a substantial raise from his previous contract of $2 million per season, scoring a career-high 35 goals and 54 points this past season. Cap leaguers will need to account for that new amount, which is higher than what Alex had projected Kempe to earn in his recent Salary Projections. That means Kempe might not be as valuable in cap leagues as you’d think.

I listed Kempe as one of my personal top waiver-wire pickups of the past season, so I won’t rehash that here. You can read more about Kempe in the May 8 Ramblings. (july9)

8. I’ll take the time to answer a question I recently received on whether Alexis Lafreniere is for real. After two seasons, the 2020 first overall pick hasn’t set the league on fire. Maybe there’s the expectation that he should by now, but I’ll remind you that he’s still another season away from his fourth NHL season and another 65 games from reaching the 200-game breakout threshold. By this time next season, I think we will have a better idea of what Lafreniere is all about at the NHL level.

The advanced stats check out as normal except for one. Lafreniere had a secondary assist percentage of 50% in 2021-22, which is considered quite high relative to his first season and other players. His assist total (12) isn’t high to begin with, so that shows some level of concern. Lafreniere recorded nine assists in 56 games in his rookie season, six of which were primary. Don’t assume that Lafreniere will struggle to record assists, though, as he recorded 68 and 77 during his final two seasons of junior.

Lafreniere has scored just two power-play goals in his entire NHL career (both in 2021-22). However, if Ryan Strome leaves via free agency, Lafreniere is one possibility to move up to the first power-play unit in Strome’s place. (I’ll leave that there for whichever Dobber writer handles the “Strome to ___” piece if Strome is not back in NYC, if it's not me.) The Rangers have only one left-handed shot on the first unit in net-front presence Chris Kreider, although that didn’t seem to matter much for one of the league’s top power plays.

If you haven’t been impressed by Lafreniere so far, be patient. He is only 20 years old, and the Rangers have had the luxury of being able to ease him into the NHL. Perhaps this is even the time to send a trade offer to a Lafreniere dynasty owner who has been expecting instant gratification. (july9)

9. Kris Letang has re-signed with the Pittsburgh Penguins for six years carrying an average annual value of $6.1M. This shaves about $1.1M a season off for those in cap leagues, so there are some savings to be had here. Of course, the big issue is signing any player at the age of 35 for six years, particularly one who had significant injury concerns his entire career (or at least up until the last couple seasons). I’ll write more in depth on Letang in the next couple weeks once there is a bit less going on, but he should be worth it in the short-term, at least. (july 8)

10. Minnesota has re-signed goalie Marc-Andre Fleury to a two-year deal worth $3.5M per season. It gives them a good tandem with Cam Talbot for at least one more year, and Fleury can be a starter for another. That affords prospect Jesper Wallstedt some more time to get his game where it needs to be to at least be an NHL backup a couple years down the road.

Fleury is likely the 1A in a 1A/1B situation with Talbot, though both guys are on the wrong side of 35. An injury or under-performance from either could see the other get a lot of starts in 2022-23. (july 8)

11. Another notable guy that signed was Adam Boqvist in Columbus, earning a three-year deal at $2.6M a season. For some reason – maybe it’s a sign of how much my sense of time has been screwed up by the last two years – it feels like he’s been around forever. The blue liner is only going into his age-22 season, though, with under 130 regular season games to his name.

There have always been high expectations for Boqvist, being drafted eighth overall by Chicago in 2018, as part of what was once a heralded defense prospect pool. He was sent to Columbus in the Seth Jones trade, and posted 11 goals and 22 points across 52 games in his first year with the Jackets. We should point out that he shot a massive 17.2%, which is near-impossible for the vast majority of forwards to repeat, let alone defensemen. He might not reach that mark in 82 games in 2022-23. Boqvist is an interesting case as far as some tracking stats are concerned, so follow the link for in-depth analysis… (july 8)

12. Speaking of trades – and I don’t like to fill my Ramblings with trade/signing rumours because a lot of it is just agents looking for more leverage – we do have to discuss Jesse Puljujarvi. By all accounts, he’s played his last game for the Oilers and will have a new NHL team come October.

A month ago, these Ramblings covered a handful of Oilers players after they were eliminated, the 24-year-old Swede included. The player he was compared to in those Ramblings, and one he’s been compared to often because of how this season/playoff went, was Valeri Nichushkin. Both are great two-way players who struggled to score early in their careers. Nichushkin has found his scoring touch in Colorado and is now looking ahead to a UFA contract worth tens of millions. His Swedish counterpart is staring down the barrel of being moved away from Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. [For more on Puljujarvi, follow the link to Mike Clifford's Thursday Ramblings…] (july7)

13. Looking ahead to free agency, one player that surely seems like he’ll be on the move is Ryan Strome. Though he’s never had a 60-point season, that can be a bit misleading because of how the last few seasons have gone in the NHL. He has 162 points in his last 200 games, which works out to about 66-67 points every 82 games. That would probably be close to 70 points/82 games had his PP production been better in 2021-22 – he had 14 PPPs in 74 games compared to 18 in just 56 games during the COVID 2021 season. He averaged 20 PPPs/82 games over the last three seasons with the Rangers.

This is what makes me kind of wary about his prospects going somewhere else. He may end up with a pretty good set of wingers on either side but that doesn’t guarantee a 60-point-ish season for him. Power-play production has been vital to supporting his fantasy value, and the Rangers’ top-5 power play over the last three years is a big reason for his fantasy success.

The obvious problem is that he’s unlikely to go to a team that will have a top-5 power play. [For more analysis on Strome, follow the link to Mike Clifford's Thursday Ramblings…] (july7)

14. I was going through Dobber’s top-120 keeper league defensemen post from yesterday and one thing did catch my eye: the rise in Drew Doughty‘s ranking. He is now inside the top-25, in the same range as names like Torey Krug and John Klingberg. The obvious reason for this is the addition of Kevin Fiala. He is a bona fide top-line scoring winger, something Los Angeles was hoping to get from Viktor Arvidsson, and are still hoping Adrian Kempe is. Adding a guy of that magnitude is going to be a big boost for Doughty, obviously.

One concern I have is Fiala’s power-play contributions, or lack thereof. Over the last two seasons, per Natural Stat Trick, Minnesota scored a whopping 46% more often at 5-on-4 with Kirill Kaprizov on the ice without Fiala than with him. It wasn’t just pure shooting luck, either, as they generated roughly 31% more high-danger shot attempts when Kaprizov was on the ice without Fiala. In virtually every regard, the top Minnesota power play was better off without Los Angeles’s new winger.

Was it a matter of his role? Was it deferring to others? Or does he have the Phillip Danault problem where his elite 5-on-5 play just doesn’t transition nearly as well to 5-on-4? We’ll find out next season, but I’m a bit wary of just declaring Los Angeles as having vastly improved their power play just because Fiala has been added. Sure, the 5-on-5 production should improve a lot with him around, but it’s not exactly the same skill set with the man advantage. Just something to chew on. (july7)

15. As the resident Nashville fan, I have to say that when I saw the Ryan McDonagh trade my immediate reaction was disappointment. To me it meant the team was going to continue to toil as a bubble playoff team, they were going to continue to spend money un-wisely, and they didn’t have a full understanding of the leverage they had in taking cap from Tampa, nor did they somehow realize the leverage they had with the Phillipe Myers contract as a potential buyout and cap saving maneuver for another team.

Having some time to digest things, the Preds do become a better team with the move, and that’s the whole point of making a trade. It may not be perfect for either side, but it could turn out to be a bit of a win for both. Gooding and Cliffy both gave their insights into the fantasy ripples, so I won’t dive very far down that rabbit hole. I do think this will keep the Preds inside the playoff picture, as their defensive depth was a big issue last season. Adding Mcdonagh really solidifies the defensive end of things, and pushes the other players down the list into more suitable roles. (july6)

16. It was again strange to watch July 1^st come and go with no free-agency opening, but it got my mind onto it, and I have a lot of thoughts that I want to share. It’s going to be a little dry and repetitive for a Ramblings though, so I’ll end up running a Twitter thread on it once I have time to gather my thoughts all in one place. Keep an eye out for it on Twitter where you can find me @alexdmaclean. That thread is likely going to be filled with my thoughts on upcoming free-agents, my contract projections for them, and some thoughts both on the contract options and what the player provides. (july6)

17. Just last week I had Philippe Myers' “bust odds” at 95%. But word out of Tampa Bay (who acquired him in the Ryan McDonagh trade) is that the organization has been very big on this guy since he was in junior hockey. He’s still getting quite a hefty contract (AAV of $2.55M), and as a bigger player (6-5, 210 pounds) it’s understandable that he could go well into his 20s without breaking through (he’s 25 now). I like how the Lightning have turned Sean Day into a prospect again when it looked like he was a bust, perhaps they do the same with Myers? At any rate, Myers has just received the defibrillator and there’s a heartbeat once again! I change my bust projection from 95% all the way down to 50-50. This is a nice break for those few dynasty owners who still hung onto Myers.

18. Columbus seems to be tweaking their tactics. First, they make a minor trade landing Mathieu Olivier. This guy is 25, has good size (6-2, 210), and in 48 career games he has 88 penalty minutes and 102 Hits. So you know what you’re getting there. And their prospect Carson Meyer has signed an extension. In 13 games at the end of last season, Meyer had 27 Hits despite just over eight minutes of ice time per game. Two guys with sandpaper. Depth players who may sit the press box at times, or even the minors. But this is a team that had just three players credited with more than 100 Hits and I think they’re looking to change that culture. Another player they extended over the weekend was 6-4 prospect forward Josh Dunne, who had 12 Hits and four PIM in just six games with them. They’re obviously not going to have all three of these guys in the lineup at once, but one or two of them will stick.

If they go after big free agents on July 13 like Nikita Zadorov, Ben Chiarot, Josh Manson or Nino Niederreiter, then it would pretty much confirm the change in tactics. (july4)

19. Some final words regarding the NHL Draft: First things are first, I am not a prospect evaluator, I am not a scout and I am not a skills coach. I’m a fantasy hockey analyst. I don’t spend hundreds of hours every year going through tape of games from the second-tier Russian league. I don’t watch a dozen CHL games every week, and I don’t watch college hockey every weekend. Keeping up with the NHL is enough work as it is. For that reason, I rely on others – people I trust – for their opinions on players and that formulate my own. I do have a few draft rules, generally speaking.

A) If a player falls because he’s too small, that’s a guy to focus on. Cole Caufield, Alex DeBrincat, and Brayden Point are all various examples of guys who fell in their draft with the biggest reason (pun intended) being their size. I made that mistake back in 2014-15 with Johnny Gaudreau, thinking it would take him a couple years to acclimate to the NHL. It is not 1987, and skilled players can flourish whether they’re 5’9″ or 6’3″.

B) If a player falls because of off-ice issues, that’s a guy to focus on. I will make the distinction between a player like Logan Mailloux and someone like Arthur Kaliyev. The former was in literal legal trouble, the latter had concerns bandied about with regards to his drive to improve/succeed. Kaliyev was highly touted for his skill but fell to the second round. He became a full-time NHLer two years later and is maybe a year away from a consistent top-6 role on a playoff team. Those are guys to look for, not ones that may wind up in court.

C) Players playing in lower leagues doesn’t really bother me as much as it used to. What matters isn’t that a guy can dominate a lower league, rather it’s how they dominate them. If a power forward hit a growth spurt at 16 and can bulldoze guys in lower-calibre leagues, that’s one thing. If a defenseman can control the game at both ends of the ice with smooth skating and crisp playmaking/transition, it doesn’t really matter the level for me. Those are skills that can translate as he moves up competition. That applies to both North American and European skaters.  (july5)

20. As for my Draft sources, this is who I use:

• Our Dobber Prospects report, which was linked above. It really is a great resource on hundreds of skaters and goalies and it’s where I go when I need to quickly reference something.
  
• Scott Wheeler over at The Athletic not only profiles and ranks the top prospects but he’s also transparent about his process. That kind of honesty in a profession that prides itself on being a black box is nice to have.
  
• The same goes for Corey Pronman at The Athletic and his rankings. 
  
• I still follow along with former Dobber writer Cam Robinson on Twitter for his musings on various players. He’s open with how he views certain players and is usually bouncing ideas with some other very smart people.
  
• Byron Bader’s Hockey Prospecting site is a good subscription for anyone looking for statistical comps of prospects, rather than just talking about skills or game footage.

Between all those sources, I like to think I get a pretty good outlook on the top prospects in a draft, going a few rounds deep, anyway.  (july5)

21. And last but not least: The Magic Man, Pavel Datsyuk, took last season off and now, at age 43, he has indicated that he will be announcing his retirement from pro hockey very soon. I remember that he was scouted out of the middle of nowhere in Russia, and drafted 171^st overall in 1998 because no other scout even knew about him (or they heard of him but hadn’t made the difficult journey to the middle of nowhere to watch him play). Back in the late 90s, even drafted prospects were off the radar – and to me, Datsyuk remained off the radar for the two years that he played in Russia after being drafted. That sort of thing is nearly impossible these days, with social media (and the Prospects Report!).

Datsyuk made the NHL in 2001-02 and had 35 points in his rookie season. From there, he was a fantasy owner’s dream. A nice, steady trajectory upwards, going from 35 to 51 to 68 to 87 to 97! His best fantasy season was in 2007-08 when he was 29 years old, posting 31 goals, 97 points and going plus-41, not to mention adding 23 points in the playoffs. An eight-time 65-point player, a four-time 87-point player and to me a first-year lock for the HHOF. (july4)

Have a good week, folks – stay safe!!

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